Wednesday 5 November 2008
Monday 20 October 2008
Back to $50NL
Okay – as I endeavour to finish my trip report of Vegas I thought it was perhaps time to give a poker update. Well, since leaving Uni I’ve kept my playing to SNGs and tourneys, and I’ve discovered that I’m pretty bad with MTTs and almost as bad with SNGs. I’d like to say that I assume it’s just luck that’s costing me – and yer I’ve had some rather laughable beats – but hey as my graph begins to look more and more like that of Enron’s profits in their last year of trading I decided that it was perhaps time to give the tourneys a break. So it’s back to 6-max cash.
Well – I’m playing on FT and PTY and playing well below what my roll can handle ($50NL with a $5400 roll) – however, I’m really enjoying it. I’m only playing 4 tables at a time and so far have been having pretty good results. I’m playing 17/13 which is prolly well below optimal, but the FT $50NL has loosened up so much since I last played there, and I have induced a few amusing spews.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347308 – felt pretty happy with my play here. My feelings were that having check called the turn, betting out on the river would tell my opponent that I had the nuts – therefore, checking was really the only option – and it got me some pretty good value from air.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347319 – this hand I have absolutely no idea about – he insta-called my all-in and I really couldn’t believe that I was ahead. Think I played it ok though.
In sum – I’m really enjoying playing cash poker again and hoping to move up to NL$100 in about a month. And at some point I’ll get back to writing up my Vegas posts.
All the best
Well – I’m playing on FT and PTY and playing well below what my roll can handle ($50NL with a $5400 roll) – however, I’m really enjoying it. I’m only playing 4 tables at a time and so far have been having pretty good results. I’m playing 17/13 which is prolly well below optimal, but the FT $50NL has loosened up so much since I last played there, and I have induced a few amusing spews.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347308 – felt pretty happy with my play here. My feelings were that having check called the turn, betting out on the river would tell my opponent that I had the nuts – therefore, checking was really the only option – and it got me some pretty good value from air.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347319 – this hand I have absolutely no idea about – he insta-called my all-in and I really couldn’t believe that I was ahead. Think I played it ok though.
In sum – I’m really enjoying playing cash poker again and hoping to move up to NL$100 in about a month. And at some point I’ll get back to writing up my Vegas posts.
All the best
Sunday 12 October 2008
Gambling in Vegas - part 2
Reaching Caesars without being sick was an achievement in itself after the previous night’s fun. My poor condition became apparent when I sat down at the tourney I had registered for and found out instead of being the $110 MTT, it was a $65 SNG (with a $15 vig!) Enjoyed joking with the table over my breakfast but only saw one playable hand, which turned out to be my last.
Moved over to the $1/$3 NLH and sat down with $400. Things went a little better, and after a tourist donated $300 to me by showing an inability to fold JJ pre against my KK I was feeling like a pro. Then this happened: UTG call, Ollie (UTG+1) – raises to $15, folds round to UTG who raises to $45 and then begins the ‘I am so weak, I just did that with shit so I will do everything I can to avoid eye contact’. So after checking his stack, about $550, I decide to flat and set-mine against his KK/AA. Flop is Q high, he bets I inadvertently like my lips and prepare to take down a big pot. He shoves to my raise and I table my set, he then tables his set as the ace peels off on the turn. Eeeek – though live poker wasn’t supposed to be rigged... I pick up the last of my chips and mope over to the craps table – the sick tilted anger was much less dangerous at a game of chance...
25 minutes later I had managed to double my day’s losses – I think I was stuck about $650. For someone who used to playing $50nl that’s quite a big loss. The hang-over was really kicking in so I decided to sleep. I woke up at about 9ish to get to my table at Picasso for dinner.
After dinner I felt even worse; I’d slept very little in the last two days, I’d drunk more free booze than I could think about without having to simultaneously quell my urge to projectile vomit and to make matters worse we now had to get to our table at Pure with a painful 1 bottle minimum. My dad’s not a spirit drinker, so I knew I’d be alone battling the $500 bottle of vodka. TBH, of all the evenings this one I remember so little about. I’m used to combating the affects of large quantities of alcohol with equally large quantities of Columbia’s finest export – however, without any trustworthy sources I had to forgo this luxury.
My next memory was of staring into the toilet bowl in our room being reminded of my evening meal course by course...
The next day I decided that it was perhaps unwise to attempt to reduce my losses with any serious gambling. We decided instead to do a bit of sightseeing starting at the Luxor and moving north. I know I was hanging out of my arsehole (and this may have altered my judgement), but I thought that Luxor was perhaps the most unimaginative building outside of the Communist Block...however, I was proven wrong when we moved on to Excalibur. However, after these two letdowns, much of the rest of the strip was as good as I’d expected – I particularly liked the MGM, Caesars, the Venetian, the Hard Rock and the Rio. – all for different reasons that I can’t really be bothered to go into.
Moved over to the $1/$3 NLH and sat down with $400. Things went a little better, and after a tourist donated $300 to me by showing an inability to fold JJ pre against my KK I was feeling like a pro. Then this happened: UTG call, Ollie (UTG+1) – raises to $15, folds round to UTG who raises to $45 and then begins the ‘I am so weak, I just did that with shit so I will do everything I can to avoid eye contact’. So after checking his stack, about $550, I decide to flat and set-mine against his KK/AA. Flop is Q high, he bets I inadvertently like my lips and prepare to take down a big pot. He shoves to my raise and I table my set, he then tables his set as the ace peels off on the turn. Eeeek – though live poker wasn’t supposed to be rigged... I pick up the last of my chips and mope over to the craps table – the sick tilted anger was much less dangerous at a game of chance...
25 minutes later I had managed to double my day’s losses – I think I was stuck about $650. For someone who used to playing $50nl that’s quite a big loss. The hang-over was really kicking in so I decided to sleep. I woke up at about 9ish to get to my table at Picasso for dinner.
After dinner I felt even worse; I’d slept very little in the last two days, I’d drunk more free booze than I could think about without having to simultaneously quell my urge to projectile vomit and to make matters worse we now had to get to our table at Pure with a painful 1 bottle minimum. My dad’s not a spirit drinker, so I knew I’d be alone battling the $500 bottle of vodka. TBH, of all the evenings this one I remember so little about. I’m used to combating the affects of large quantities of alcohol with equally large quantities of Columbia’s finest export – however, without any trustworthy sources I had to forgo this luxury.
My next memory was of staring into the toilet bowl in our room being reminded of my evening meal course by course...
The next day I decided that it was perhaps unwise to attempt to reduce my losses with any serious gambling. We decided instead to do a bit of sightseeing starting at the Luxor and moving north. I know I was hanging out of my arsehole (and this may have altered my judgement), but I thought that Luxor was perhaps the most unimaginative building outside of the Communist Block...however, I was proven wrong when we moved on to Excalibur. However, after these two letdowns, much of the rest of the strip was as good as I’d expected – I particularly liked the MGM, Caesars, the Venetian, the Hard Rock and the Rio. – all for different reasons that I can’t really be bothered to go into.
Monday 15 September 2008
Gamblin' in Vegas (part1)
Okies – so felt I should try to put my Vegas memories onto the blog – and try to get back into writing my blog –as much for the benefit of my small readership as for my own benefit; there’s no better way to try to get things straight in your head than to write them down; re-read; edit; rephrase etc.
So Vegas – well we (my dad and I) actually flew to LA (wanted to fly business class for free and only have contacts in BA who don’t fly to Vegas) flight was full so I had to endure nearly 12 hours with a kid jabbing his elbow into my ribs, and some tall guy in front whose seat was so far back he may as well of just nestled his head in my crotch. After a shit flight I made a mental note that that was the last bit of cash saving I was doing for the holiday and upgraded the Pontiac to a new Cady – turned out to be a good choice coz America is fukin’ big and a ‘short’ journey is like 7 hours!
The first stop was Palm Springs; the spring break destination. However, as it was totally out of season we were surrounded by Saga-style holiday makers; hence the pics on facebook of me enjoying drinks with perhaps the youngest woman I could find – a retired lawyer from in her 40s.
So day 2 – after the Joshua Tree National Park (an excursion that added about 6 hours to the journey) I pulled the Cady up outside the Bellagio – clearly outclassed by the two Rollers, the Bentley and the prick in the Merc AMG next to me who won the battle for the first bellboy’s attention. However, all was cool when we finally made it too the room and opened our curtains revealing our 30th floor panoramic view of the fountains and the strip.
There was no time to admire the view – the wedge of notes in my pocket was burning through the trouser leg and I needed to find a machine/croupier to give them too. At this point I should mention that dad’s biggest ever gamble (other than his marriages – clearly costly punts) was about £20 on the ponies, so I had my work cut out to render him a degenerate in four nights. A man of such wisdom needed to be started off lightly; $10 in the 50c a hand video poker seemed a good choice – and the free cocktail worth $14 seemed to convince him of the value of his first investment. 4 casinos later he was up quite nicely off the video poker – something that became fully apparent with the bottle of Dom ’98 that arrived with sushi at Yellow Tail.
Following the meal it was off the Rio for some single-deck black jack; a game with a high level of etiquette and protocol that neither of us understood or made any real attempt to learn as the casino sustained its onslaught of free cocktails. Drunken and flush with black and green chips we headed up to the voodoo lounge. 50 floors above the casino we met a Vegas resident; Nicole, a stripper/escort from Spearmint Rhinos. After refusing her pleas to join her at Spearmint’s for a drink we returned to the Casino floor for some more blackjack. After which, my semi converted father went to bed and I headed off to Caesars Palace for some poker.
9:30am: drunk and confused I wandered lost through the Bellagio casino floor. After a night cap I managed to catch a few hours sleep before I awoke with the mother of all hangovers but with a profit! I had broken the cardinal rule; got drunk in Vegas and gone gambling – but I had been the winner. Well if I could do it pissed, then I could do it sober - so it was back to Caesars poker room for breakfast.
So Vegas – well we (my dad and I) actually flew to LA (wanted to fly business class for free and only have contacts in BA who don’t fly to Vegas) flight was full so I had to endure nearly 12 hours with a kid jabbing his elbow into my ribs, and some tall guy in front whose seat was so far back he may as well of just nestled his head in my crotch. After a shit flight I made a mental note that that was the last bit of cash saving I was doing for the holiday and upgraded the Pontiac to a new Cady – turned out to be a good choice coz America is fukin’ big and a ‘short’ journey is like 7 hours!
The first stop was Palm Springs; the spring break destination. However, as it was totally out of season we were surrounded by Saga-style holiday makers; hence the pics on facebook of me enjoying drinks with perhaps the youngest woman I could find – a retired lawyer from in her 40s.
So day 2 – after the Joshua Tree National Park (an excursion that added about 6 hours to the journey) I pulled the Cady up outside the Bellagio – clearly outclassed by the two Rollers, the Bentley and the prick in the Merc AMG next to me who won the battle for the first bellboy’s attention. However, all was cool when we finally made it too the room and opened our curtains revealing our 30th floor panoramic view of the fountains and the strip.
There was no time to admire the view – the wedge of notes in my pocket was burning through the trouser leg and I needed to find a machine/croupier to give them too. At this point I should mention that dad’s biggest ever gamble (other than his marriages – clearly costly punts) was about £20 on the ponies, so I had my work cut out to render him a degenerate in four nights. A man of such wisdom needed to be started off lightly; $10 in the 50c a hand video poker seemed a good choice – and the free cocktail worth $14 seemed to convince him of the value of his first investment. 4 casinos later he was up quite nicely off the video poker – something that became fully apparent with the bottle of Dom ’98 that arrived with sushi at Yellow Tail.
Following the meal it was off the Rio for some single-deck black jack; a game with a high level of etiquette and protocol that neither of us understood or made any real attempt to learn as the casino sustained its onslaught of free cocktails. Drunken and flush with black and green chips we headed up to the voodoo lounge. 50 floors above the casino we met a Vegas resident; Nicole, a stripper/escort from Spearmint Rhinos. After refusing her pleas to join her at Spearmint’s for a drink we returned to the Casino floor for some more blackjack. After which, my semi converted father went to bed and I headed off to Caesars Palace for some poker.
9:30am: drunk and confused I wandered lost through the Bellagio casino floor. After a night cap I managed to catch a few hours sleep before I awoke with the mother of all hangovers but with a profit! I had broken the cardinal rule; got drunk in Vegas and gone gambling – but I had been the winner. Well if I could do it pissed, then I could do it sober - so it was back to Caesars poker room for breakfast.
Wednesday 16 April 2008
The Scottish Grand National
The Scottish National, much like the Grand National, is a race that works well with trend analysis. In fact over the years trend bettors have had even more luck in this race than in the GN. A 4+ mile hurdle with a large starting field.
Primarily one should start every race with a look at the handicaps. 7 of the last 10 winner have won this race carrying less than 11-2. This year, this particular trend only removes one horse, Halcon Genelardais. Genelardais has an official rating miles above the other horses in this race and has been given a handicap of 11-12, more than a stone more than any other horse in the race. Therefore, unlike the GN where 10 horses were dragging their bellies under the weight, only Genelardais will have this problem in the Scottish National – and thus can be immediately discounted.
The second trend is form, 90% of winners finished in the top 5 on their last outing and 60% in the top three. As such Butlers Cabin, who failed to finish in the GN carrying a substantial handicap, should not be immediately discounted as he only has the pressure of 10-2 this time out especially as he’s proven himself over this distance. However, no horse that has run in the GN has won the Scottish National in the same season so, for this reason, he’s off my list.
Those who fit the trends are, sadly, the top two on the books, Miko de Beuchene and Old Benny. Which is always going to make this race poor value. An e/w bet on either of these horse works out at almost break-even in the event of a place – and breaking even is bad for the ROI!
This is Scotland, and therefore all trends can be cross-referenced with a pretty good forecast for the ground condition. Soft at best and maybe even heavy is guaranteed almost 100%! However, this trend doesn’t split the two front runners at all; both have multiple wins on all sub-fair going. Nonetheless, this does add ev to the favourites: it’s never a good idea to take short odds on a horse whose not proven on the forecast condition.
The old GN trend runs true in the Scottish National, no horse has won this race without having a good record over 3 miles. Again this doesn’t really define between the two market leaders; none the less Old Benny did win the 4m novice chase at Chelts this season, whilst Miko only managed a 2nd in the 3m chase and made little impression on the winner, Ballyfitz. However, trainers do sometimes (rarely) race a horse in less than suitable conditions at Cheltenham to achieve a favourable handicap for the Nationals. So this is by no means a definitive factor.
Finally, I have listened to a couple of comments (from the Irish contingency) regarding the trainer. Ferdy Murphy trained the winners in 2000, 2005 and 2007 – and as such they’re taking Leading Man. I really wouldn’t want to back him to win, but at 5.5 to place on Betfair this might be a good bet. At least you know that F. Murphy will be training horses to win the race, not to improve their future handicaps through a poor showing.
As everything stands, I’m placing an e/w bet on Old Benny, I will take Miko to place if his odds improve, over the last two days he’s drifted whilst Benny has shortened, so it’s not unreasonable to think that this may continue. Finally, I’m going to take Osmosis to place – he’s not really an outsider, more on the outside of the market leaders where value lurks and I think he’ll put in a performance that should merit a place.
Cliff Notes:
Old Benny – e/w
Osmosis - Place
Sunday 13 April 2008
Stars sucks balls
Decided to play the $50 freeze on Stars this Sunday. Was doing ok, grinding basically, getting close to the money and wanted to chip up.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2430909
When the vil puts in the massive raise pre I put him on a hand 77 to QQ. I admit, I was wrong but wasn’t too unhappy as I have a nice little chance to win a big pot here. When I flop the ace and the queen I’m thinking ship! Ship! – but I remember this is Stars, and remember how much I agreed with Jambon’s post on the WarwickPoker forum on the topic of the Stars turn and river. All it took was one look at the flop to know how it was going to happen, he wasn’t going to hit a king – that’d be too obvious, he was 100% going to get running hearts to make the 1 card flush on me – when I saw the turn heart I knew what the river was going to be.
I hate Stars – the most rigged site on the net!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2430909
When the vil puts in the massive raise pre I put him on a hand 77 to QQ. I admit, I was wrong but wasn’t too unhappy as I have a nice little chance to win a big pot here. When I flop the ace and the queen I’m thinking ship! Ship! – but I remember this is Stars, and remember how much I agreed with Jambon’s post on the WarwickPoker forum on the topic of the Stars turn and river. All it took was one look at the flop to know how it was going to happen, he wasn’t going to hit a king – that’d be too obvious, he was 100% going to get running hearts to make the 1 card flush on me – when I saw the turn heart I knew what the river was going to be.
I hate Stars – the most rigged site on the net!
Thursday 10 April 2008
Poker 5k hands summary, and National Hunt Season reviewed (including ROI)
Okies – this is going to be a combination of poker and ponies. Basically, the National Hunt season has come to end, so I’d first like to say a few words. Well the 2008Grand National was of the best I’ve seen. What made me happiest is, even with the talent that was out there this year, the trends still stayed strong: the winner, who drew away from the pack to claim the race by 5 lengths on the finish straight, was carrying 10 stone 9, was a competent chase horse with wins over the 3 mile mark, was on form this season with 3 2nd places and a win and had won a grade 1 chase of over £15k. Of those in the top 12 of the betting Comply of Die was the only one to tick all the boxes – because Cloudy Lane lost points, in my calculations, due to his young age. Next year – lets hope I can do it again, coz I have to admit I do love this race. Oh, btw, I had 8 horses in that race, Naunton Brook pulled up, McKelvey fell and the othere, well they cam 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Pity I only had Naunton Brook to place – lol.
Ok – well following a loss in February my friend asked me to start collating the data of my wins and losses for the rest of the season. Baring in mind that the 23rd of Feb was a day of big losses for me both at Kempton and FairyHouse (Ire). However, of the £777.95 I bet over the next few weeks I managed to turn a profit of £2.85. Ok – that’s an ROI of 0.366% - ship! Ship!
What have I learnt: There’s been a few times when I’ve allowed myself to get caught up in the action and taken horrible odds on a favourite which were perhaps unadvisable. Kauto Star is my best example – I should have laid off the bet on the day of the Gold Cup, taken the equity on him and backed Denman – I had even mentioned that the ground conditions would determine the race, and they did. At Aintree I took tiny odds on Kauto Star, only a matter of weeks after he’d been defeated in the Gold Cup (and nearly forced to take third by Neptune Colognes) and, weakened from his previous exertion, he made countless mistakes over the flights to finish 2nd (on a photo finish) - however, at 1.56, if you’re backing the horse you have to do so expecting him to take the race absolutely by storm – and Kauto never looked to do that.
I began to rectify these mistakes towards the end of the season. Looking at the disadvantages behind a massive favourite seemed to work well for me – in sum it’s better to make a +ev bet at longer odds than it is to take the “sure thing” at –ev odds. Simple – I know – but that’s easier said than done when you’re chasing losses at the race course.
The final problem with my style was backing races that I didn’t really have a view on. On the day of the Gold Cup I had 4 races which I thought I had handicapped well, however, I backed horses in all 9 races. I had no winners over the whole day, but I would have broken even if I had only backed the horses I had real views on.
And so the poker:
Well, I’ve been trying to make my style a little less break even. Lol. I was fed up of months and months of grinding out tiny profits so I decided to really try to play poker. I took up a 5k hand challenge with my house mate (who could have the larger bb/100 hands). I’ve run at 10.8 tracker bbs/100 hands; much better than before.
I’ve decreased the length of time I play in each session and even leave the tables with a small loss rather than, profit, break even or large loss which was standard before. I’m now happy to stop playing when I’m bored, and I’ll take a 10 min break if I think I’m tilting. I’m also trying to keep the tables to 6 maximum, but I may take this down to 4 whilst I get used to my new HUD layout which is more complicated than the last one.
I know there are still some leaks in my game, and I don’t want to move up during the exam season, so even though I have a roll or $3725 I’m going to stay at $50NL until after my last exams – and even then I want to put in an h-core winning week at $50NL before I jump up.
Anyways – ty for reading
Gl at the tables
Ok – well following a loss in February my friend asked me to start collating the data of my wins and losses for the rest of the season. Baring in mind that the 23rd of Feb was a day of big losses for me both at Kempton and FairyHouse (Ire). However, of the £777.95 I bet over the next few weeks I managed to turn a profit of £2.85. Ok – that’s an ROI of 0.366% - ship! Ship!
What have I learnt: There’s been a few times when I’ve allowed myself to get caught up in the action and taken horrible odds on a favourite which were perhaps unadvisable. Kauto Star is my best example – I should have laid off the bet on the day of the Gold Cup, taken the equity on him and backed Denman – I had even mentioned that the ground conditions would determine the race, and they did. At Aintree I took tiny odds on Kauto Star, only a matter of weeks after he’d been defeated in the Gold Cup (and nearly forced to take third by Neptune Colognes) and, weakened from his previous exertion, he made countless mistakes over the flights to finish 2nd (on a photo finish) - however, at 1.56, if you’re backing the horse you have to do so expecting him to take the race absolutely by storm – and Kauto never looked to do that.
I began to rectify these mistakes towards the end of the season. Looking at the disadvantages behind a massive favourite seemed to work well for me – in sum it’s better to make a +ev bet at longer odds than it is to take the “sure thing” at –ev odds. Simple – I know – but that’s easier said than done when you’re chasing losses at the race course.
The final problem with my style was backing races that I didn’t really have a view on. On the day of the Gold Cup I had 4 races which I thought I had handicapped well, however, I backed horses in all 9 races. I had no winners over the whole day, but I would have broken even if I had only backed the horses I had real views on.
And so the poker:
Well, I’ve been trying to make my style a little less break even. Lol. I was fed up of months and months of grinding out tiny profits so I decided to really try to play poker. I took up a 5k hand challenge with my house mate (who could have the larger bb/100 hands). I’ve run at 10.8 tracker bbs/100 hands; much better than before.
I’ve decreased the length of time I play in each session and even leave the tables with a small loss rather than, profit, break even or large loss which was standard before. I’m now happy to stop playing when I’m bored, and I’ll take a 10 min break if I think I’m tilting. I’m also trying to keep the tables to 6 maximum, but I may take this down to 4 whilst I get used to my new HUD layout which is more complicated than the last one.
I know there are still some leaks in my game, and I don’t want to move up during the exam season, so even though I have a roll or $3725 I’m going to stay at $50NL until after my last exams – and even then I want to put in an h-core winning week at $50NL before I jump up.
Anyways – ty for reading
Gl at the tables
Friday 4 April 2008
Final picks
This year’s National has just been a nightmare to handicap. The problem is that trends suggest that a horse carrying 11.0+ stone is unlikely to win. However, this year’s field is so strong compared to other years that there are 20 horses that will be over this mark! And this includes; Cloudy Lane, Bewleys Berry and Butler’s Cabin from my previous tips. However, with half the field expected to be running with lots of weight on their back perhaps we have to bend this slightly. However, it does mean that I’m going to have to add one horse to my tipping.
I’ve been watching McKelvey for a while now and got a bet down on him a while back. Since then he has been a drifter, which is good news for anyone who wants to get a bet down now. I think he’s been overlooked due to the class of the front runners; however, the fact that he’s carrying 11.0 stone may be enough to give him the advantage on the knackering finish straight (the longest of all English race courses). This horse has won over 3 miles and also won over 4 miles, he’s experienced the GN fences on two previous occasions and he’s won a chase of £45k. The only problem with this horse is that he hasn’t run many races this season; only two, and didn’t win either. However, I was speaking to one of my contacts, an owner of several chase horses (who clearly knows more about handicapping than me); he speculated that his trainers may have raced him in slightly unsuitable races with the view to achieving poor results to reduce his handicap for the National. The ground is likely to be good/ good to soft which I think will suite McKelvey well.
Okay, so what do I think you should do?
As much as I hate to say it, Cloudy Lane is the best horse in this race – I believe he’s the most likely horse to win this year’s GN – however, his odds are horrendous, especially when one considers the quality of his opponents. So if you want to bet on him you have to accept that it’s a –ev decision. TBH – if this horse had been proven over 4 miles I’d take the current odds, but he hasn’t, and with his handicap it’s likely that he’s going to find the last 4 furlongs to a mile too tough. So I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say, “don’t get your money on Cloudy Lane.”
So as everything stands, I think Comply or Die fits the bill for a winner. He’s at 10-9 stone – an advantage over all the horses which out-class him, we know he can win over the distance, he’s having a nice season and he’s had time to rest for this event. So Comply or Die to win – try to get him at around 10.0
As I said before, I think McKelvey is a great horse and the odds make this a very nice e/w bet. Try to get him at no less than 18.0 (this will translate to around 4.5 for the place)
Finally, Naunton Brook, providing he makes to the start line is a great place (TBP) bet opportunity. Don’t go below 11.0 on the place though.
Cliff notes:
Comply or Die – win, McKelvey e/w, Naunton Brook TBP
Tricast bets (exact order of three horses), fortune making odds so it’s fun! You’ll only need to get a quid or two down, and if you win you owe me some Dom Perignion: 1) The horses above in that order, 2) Point Barrow, Mckelvey, Comply or Die
I’ve been watching McKelvey for a while now and got a bet down on him a while back. Since then he has been a drifter, which is good news for anyone who wants to get a bet down now. I think he’s been overlooked due to the class of the front runners; however, the fact that he’s carrying 11.0 stone may be enough to give him the advantage on the knackering finish straight (the longest of all English race courses). This horse has won over 3 miles and also won over 4 miles, he’s experienced the GN fences on two previous occasions and he’s won a chase of £45k. The only problem with this horse is that he hasn’t run many races this season; only two, and didn’t win either. However, I was speaking to one of my contacts, an owner of several chase horses (who clearly knows more about handicapping than me); he speculated that his trainers may have raced him in slightly unsuitable races with the view to achieving poor results to reduce his handicap for the National. The ground is likely to be good/ good to soft which I think will suite McKelvey well.
Okay, so what do I think you should do?
As much as I hate to say it, Cloudy Lane is the best horse in this race – I believe he’s the most likely horse to win this year’s GN – however, his odds are horrendous, especially when one considers the quality of his opponents. So if you want to bet on him you have to accept that it’s a –ev decision. TBH – if this horse had been proven over 4 miles I’d take the current odds, but he hasn’t, and with his handicap it’s likely that he’s going to find the last 4 furlongs to a mile too tough. So I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say, “don’t get your money on Cloudy Lane.”
So as everything stands, I think Comply or Die fits the bill for a winner. He’s at 10-9 stone – an advantage over all the horses which out-class him, we know he can win over the distance, he’s having a nice season and he’s had time to rest for this event. So Comply or Die to win – try to get him at around 10.0
As I said before, I think McKelvey is a great horse and the odds make this a very nice e/w bet. Try to get him at no less than 18.0 (this will translate to around 4.5 for the place)
Finally, Naunton Brook, providing he makes to the start line is a great place (TBP) bet opportunity. Don’t go below 11.0 on the place though.
Cliff notes:
Comply or Die – win, McKelvey e/w, Naunton Brook TBP
Tricast bets (exact order of three horses), fortune making odds so it’s fun! You’ll only need to get a quid or two down, and if you win you owe me some Dom Perignion: 1) The horses above in that order, 2) Point Barrow, Mckelvey, Comply or Die
Tuesday 1 April 2008
Poker Poker - it's all skill.
Just a quick post to sum up last month’s poker. Well, I got a degree to pass – and I need to do well considering I’m not sure “going pro” would be the correct decision for me. Nonetheless, I have tried to change my game significantly.
No lengthy sessions; be happy to quit when I’m stuck.
Fewer tables – between 5 and 6 I think is optimum for me.
Up the aggression! For too long I’ve played a really tight game, so I’ve decided that had to change. But I’m not simply raising every hand, I’m using the stats to really make decisions on whom to raise, whom to re-raise and also whom to simply flat.
Basically, I’ve decided to change from playing 10-12 tables like an unsuccessful bot, to actually playing thinking poker across 5-6 tables.
The results: well, tbh I haven’t played enough hands to make this a proper sample. I’ve only played 2320 hands. I’m now playing 18.32/ 14.83, so I think there’s still work to be done, I’d like to get up to 19/16 with profits before I move up to NL:$100. I’m attempting to steal 31% of the time.
Profits have been rather sweet: I’ve made $535 over the month, which works out at $97 an hour. I’m winning 21.22 Tracker BBs per 100 hands. What I’m particularly happy with is the fact that I’m winning with many more of my starting hands than before and the hand graph is a steady upward trend with constant small wins rather than just stack sized pots.
I know that in the past I’ve played this many hands in a session and that this is a poor sample. However, I think the change is style as certainly affected my win rate, and I think this bodes well for my game in the future. My roll is just over $3,300 which I think is enough to make the move to NL:$100, but I think I’m going to stay where I am until after the exams and even then try to put in a lot of hands in the week prior to the move. Basically, I don’t want to fuck up the move up, so I’m going to wait until I can do it properly.
In other news – I want to get rid of $224 FT $, I’m prepared to swap for PTY, Stars or Sun. I’ve just been running so horrendously on that site that I think it’s now tilting me whenever I go on it – so I’d rather just sell out of it and call it quits before I do any more money on there.
No lengthy sessions; be happy to quit when I’m stuck.
Fewer tables – between 5 and 6 I think is optimum for me.
Up the aggression! For too long I’ve played a really tight game, so I’ve decided that had to change. But I’m not simply raising every hand, I’m using the stats to really make decisions on whom to raise, whom to re-raise and also whom to simply flat.
Basically, I’ve decided to change from playing 10-12 tables like an unsuccessful bot, to actually playing thinking poker across 5-6 tables.
The results: well, tbh I haven’t played enough hands to make this a proper sample. I’ve only played 2320 hands. I’m now playing 18.32/ 14.83, so I think there’s still work to be done, I’d like to get up to 19/16 with profits before I move up to NL:$100. I’m attempting to steal 31% of the time.
Profits have been rather sweet: I’ve made $535 over the month, which works out at $97 an hour. I’m winning 21.22 Tracker BBs per 100 hands. What I’m particularly happy with is the fact that I’m winning with many more of my starting hands than before and the hand graph is a steady upward trend with constant small wins rather than just stack sized pots.
I know that in the past I’ve played this many hands in a session and that this is a poor sample. However, I think the change is style as certainly affected my win rate, and I think this bodes well for my game in the future. My roll is just over $3,300 which I think is enough to make the move to NL:$100, but I think I’m going to stay where I am until after the exams and even then try to put in a lot of hands in the week prior to the move. Basically, I don’t want to fuck up the move up, so I’m going to wait until I can do it properly.
In other news – I want to get rid of $224 FT $, I’m prepared to swap for PTY, Stars or Sun. I’ve just been running so horrendously on that site that I think it’s now tilting me whenever I go on it – so I’d rather just sell out of it and call it quits before I do any more money on there.
The Warm-ups to the Grand National
Alrighty – well the horses for the Grand National are being finalised around this point. I’m going to give my selections after I’ve had some time to get a view together. However, there are two big races in the run up and if you want a sure bet – these are for you!
On the March 3rd there is the Totesport Bowl Chase. A few days ago Nicholls announced that Kauto Star was going to be riding in it. The betting went pretty sick following that decision. And Kauto is now around 1.56 on Betfair. TBH the competition is really strong with top runners including; Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and possibly Monets Garden. However, Kauto easily beat Exotic on his last trip in Chelts – and I cannot see him losing this race. The only downside is that his jumping is poor, however, this horse has too much class to be beaten by any of these opponants.
On the 4th there’s the Melling Chase, in this race you have to put your money on Master Minded – although there is going to be some top runners along side him such as Monets Garden, Voy Por Ustedes and Tamarinbleu I’m still pretty sure this is a sure thing. I also believe a good place bet to be Tidal Bay – he has so much speed, and although he makes you sweat every jump, on the flat he more than makes up for it.
On the March 3rd there is the Totesport Bowl Chase. A few days ago Nicholls announced that Kauto Star was going to be riding in it. The betting went pretty sick following that decision. And Kauto is now around 1.56 on Betfair. TBH the competition is really strong with top runners including; Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and possibly Monets Garden. However, Kauto easily beat Exotic on his last trip in Chelts – and I cannot see him losing this race. The only downside is that his jumping is poor, however, this horse has too much class to be beaten by any of these opponants.
On the 4th there’s the Melling Chase, in this race you have to put your money on Master Minded – although there is going to be some top runners along side him such as Monets Garden, Voy Por Ustedes and Tamarinbleu I’m still pretty sure this is a sure thing. I also believe a good place bet to be Tidal Bay – he has so much speed, and although he makes you sweat every jump, on the flat he more than makes up for it.
Thursday 27 March 2008
GN - my top 6
Okay – well I’ve been looking at the GN form and I’m going to ear-mark 6 horses today which I think need to be watched. And a couple that you should avoid!
I really wanted to avoid tipping the fav in this race. He’s around the 7.0 mark with the bookmakers and obviously this makes it a –ev bet. But you can’t blame the bookies, this horse is on form: he’s won 3 out of 4 races this season and earned his owners £62,000. His GN challenge is a serious one; he hasn’t raced for 35 days. In terms of matching my criteria, he’s won 5 chases over 3 miles, won a chase of £33k (this season), he’s not lost his mount this season and he hasn’t been crushed by the handicappers. However, at 6.0 I want this horse to be perfect, and there are still some issues: he’s never won over 4 miles, worse still he’s never raced over 4 miles, and he’s never had a trip over the GN fences. – so does he have the staying power?
Comply or Die: at 9 years old this horse has 14 chase runs under his belt. This season isn’t going too badly with one win in 4 races and a second place finish. He’s earned his owners £32k so far this season which included a £30k win! However, why I really fancy this horse is because he’s proven his abilities over 4 miles. Although he’s never been over the GN fences I’m happy with backing this springer hard and fast!
Bewleys Berry: I really like this horse. His season hasn’t been great with only a second place achieved out of two races, however, this has meant that his handicap is small (11-0). Okay, so this horse almost fits the bill, but he’s getting a little old imho and he’s never had a chase win of over £3k – but he’s sort of got the Aintree-factor. As I have previously mentioned, some horses run very well on certain courses, and Berry loves Aintree. I really believe that if the ground is good this horse has a good chance of running a great race – whether he has what it takes to be first past the post, I’m not sure – I would not take this horse at less than 15.0.
Snowy Morning: This horse is perhaps a little young to be a GN champion at 8 years. And although he had a good start to the season it did trail off a little towards the end. However, he’s won a chase of £21k, he’s on ok form this season with prize money totalling £34k and he’s had that all-important win over 3 miles. However, he has lost his mount once this season and perhaps isn’t best suited to the GN course.
Butlers Cabin: this horse I tipped on my blog in January. However, since backing him he’s been a disappointment and his odds have drifted accordingly. He’s proven over both 3 and 4 mile distances and has won a £95k chase before. However – this season has been a disappointment and he’s only pulled in £9k for his owners. He’s had 49 days to prepare for this race – will it be enough?
My outsider is Naunton Brook. For a 50/1 shot he’s a pretty decent horse. He really fits the bill tbh. In his 9 years he’s run in 25 chases, won 4 times over 3 miles and once over 4 miles, he also has had experience over the GN fences. This season he’s claimed £52k in prize money and has had 1 win in his six races. His biggest ever chase win is £26k and he’s only ever had one fall. Really, from this I could almost be describing a top 8 horse. However, the reasoning behind his position is his official rating of 140. OR’s are drawn up as a way of comparing horses against one and other and are based not on wins but on which horses they have beaten. Basically, Brook has never faced strong competition – so how will he fare against the field on April 5th.
You have to love the nerve of the bookies during the Grand National – Hedgehunter is now 12 years old, carrying a decent handicap (for some stupid reason) and is priced at 16.0! Betting on Hedgehunter to win the GN is like betting Linford Christie to win the 110m hurdle in Beijing this year. A massive mover in the markets has been King John’s Castle – I noticed him dropping from three figures so I took him at 50/1 and was pleased when I saw him around the 15.0 mark in the bookies – however, examining this horses form, I think 50/1 is a fair bet: Yes he’s had a good season claiming £33k in prize money with 3 second place finished and a first in 4 races – however, he’s never won over 2.5 miles! In my opinion, this horse is going to take the race by storm until the three mile mark and from then on he’ll be lucky to finish let alone place.
I really wanted to avoid tipping the fav in this race. He’s around the 7.0 mark with the bookmakers and obviously this makes it a –ev bet. But you can’t blame the bookies, this horse is on form: he’s won 3 out of 4 races this season and earned his owners £62,000. His GN challenge is a serious one; he hasn’t raced for 35 days. In terms of matching my criteria, he’s won 5 chases over 3 miles, won a chase of £33k (this season), he’s not lost his mount this season and he hasn’t been crushed by the handicappers. However, at 6.0 I want this horse to be perfect, and there are still some issues: he’s never won over 4 miles, worse still he’s never raced over 4 miles, and he’s never had a trip over the GN fences. – so does he have the staying power?
Comply or Die: at 9 years old this horse has 14 chase runs under his belt. This season isn’t going too badly with one win in 4 races and a second place finish. He’s earned his owners £32k so far this season which included a £30k win! However, why I really fancy this horse is because he’s proven his abilities over 4 miles. Although he’s never been over the GN fences I’m happy with backing this springer hard and fast!
Bewleys Berry: I really like this horse. His season hasn’t been great with only a second place achieved out of two races, however, this has meant that his handicap is small (11-0). Okay, so this horse almost fits the bill, but he’s getting a little old imho and he’s never had a chase win of over £3k – but he’s sort of got the Aintree-factor. As I have previously mentioned, some horses run very well on certain courses, and Berry loves Aintree. I really believe that if the ground is good this horse has a good chance of running a great race – whether he has what it takes to be first past the post, I’m not sure – I would not take this horse at less than 15.0.
Snowy Morning: This horse is perhaps a little young to be a GN champion at 8 years. And although he had a good start to the season it did trail off a little towards the end. However, he’s won a chase of £21k, he’s on ok form this season with prize money totalling £34k and he’s had that all-important win over 3 miles. However, he has lost his mount once this season and perhaps isn’t best suited to the GN course.
Butlers Cabin: this horse I tipped on my blog in January. However, since backing him he’s been a disappointment and his odds have drifted accordingly. He’s proven over both 3 and 4 mile distances and has won a £95k chase before. However – this season has been a disappointment and he’s only pulled in £9k for his owners. He’s had 49 days to prepare for this race – will it be enough?
My outsider is Naunton Brook. For a 50/1 shot he’s a pretty decent horse. He really fits the bill tbh. In his 9 years he’s run in 25 chases, won 4 times over 3 miles and once over 4 miles, he also has had experience over the GN fences. This season he’s claimed £52k in prize money and has had 1 win in his six races. His biggest ever chase win is £26k and he’s only ever had one fall. Really, from this I could almost be describing a top 8 horse. However, the reasoning behind his position is his official rating of 140. OR’s are drawn up as a way of comparing horses against one and other and are based not on wins but on which horses they have beaten. Basically, Brook has never faced strong competition – so how will he fare against the field on April 5th.
You have to love the nerve of the bookies during the Grand National – Hedgehunter is now 12 years old, carrying a decent handicap (for some stupid reason) and is priced at 16.0! Betting on Hedgehunter to win the GN is like betting Linford Christie to win the 110m hurdle in Beijing this year. A massive mover in the markets has been King John’s Castle – I noticed him dropping from three figures so I took him at 50/1 and was pleased when I saw him around the 15.0 mark in the bookies – however, examining this horses form, I think 50/1 is a fair bet: Yes he’s had a good season claiming £33k in prize money with 3 second place finished and a first in 4 races – however, he’s never won over 2.5 miles! In my opinion, this horse is going to take the race by storm until the three mile mark and from then on he’ll be lucky to finish let alone place.
Monday 24 March 2008
2008 Oxford vs Cambridge Boat Race
This is just a quick post. Basically, I’m just amazed by how little is known by the experts in regards to the Oxford vs Cambridge University Boat Race this Saturday. Normally this is one of the easiest sporting events to handicap – but this year it seems that the bookies don’t have a clue. However, the punters seem to think they do – in the Betfair market about 85% of the money is going on Oxford!
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
Saturday 22 March 2008
The Grand National - picking winner explained
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
The Grand National - picking winner explained
Well – I think it’s time to start the Grand National thread. It’d be good to see what everyone else has to think – below is a copy of my latest blog post. My tips are coming later, but I think this is a good guide on how to approach picking a GN winner.
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
Wednesday 19 March 2008
Gold Cup trip report and Grand National update
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Thursday 13 March 2008
The final day! - shippitt! holla! Kauto!
So I bet you want to know how the top tipster is running – well, following my successes today I’m now up £32 on the festival – not a big profit from £180+ of bets, but according to the biggest Cheltenham tipsters- breaking even on the festival is a conquest.
So today I had two winners: In the Queen Mother Champion Chase I managed a win with Materminded whom I had £17 on at 3.7 – after other bets were settled it gave me a £39 profit. In the World Hurdle I had backed Inglis Drever for £35 at 2.5 which gave me a tidy profit of £50.
The Final Day has cometh – and what a day it’s going to be. - this will be the biggest sweat for the bookies since "Best Mate" shipped it in '02, '03 and '04. Is Kauto Star going to be the next punters favourite and bookies nightmare? - or has he just made every bookies' retirement fund?
So we have 9 races to come tomorrow – and I shall be sweating to the tune of £177.55 – sadly I have already lost £15 of that in the ante-post markets.
- 12:30: Mares Hurdle – “Chomba Womba” has to be one of my top tips for the day. This mare has a great form across pretty much all ground conditions – the only reason why she’s going at a carpet at the moment is because she’s never been tested on the Cheltenham course – I think she’s a good bet at 4.0. In this race I’ve also got a win and TBP bet on Silver Charmer (weighted to the TBP). I think she’s a good bet at around 100:1 – basically, she’s got such long odds because she’s a prone to pulling up and has sporadic successes – however, with Ruby Walsh at the reigns I think you’ll see the best performance from her – and if you can get pretty big odds I think she’s a nice little punt.
- 13:05: Ballymore Novice Hurdle – I haven’t changed my mind from “Forpadytheplasterer”. This horse has only been tested 4 times but has achieved a form of 1-2-1-1, so I can’t see why I’d be putting my money enywhere else.
- 13:40: Coral Cup – With such good current form I think “Leg Spinner” is a great bet. I have him at 6.2, I don’t think I’d like to go much below 4:1 (perhaps 7:2 at the very lowest) – however, this is purely to do with the competition. I think this is the best horse in the race, just not by a very long way.
- 14:15: Triumph Hurdle – “Franchoek” – this horse is having a staggering season (1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-3) – and it’s just been getting better. His last race so many punters decided his winning streak was due to come to come to an end and watched as he won by 9 lengths. A real Cheltenham regular, he loves this course and can win on any surface from good to firm to good to soft.
- 14:50: Novice Hurdle –“ Carruthers” – this horse is on steaming form, and has shown had quality runs over all grounds. I got him at 6.0 – and I’d say there’s still value there down to about 7:2.
- 15:30: Gold Cup – Okay – well if you have the gamble to bet on the winner then go for it (and make sure you pick “Kauto Star”) – however, if you want value – these are my recommendations. “Exotic Dancer” to win – I’d recommend that you bet this small and don’t take anything less than 13:1. “Afistfullofdollars” TBP; this was, at the time of posting, the best value bet I could find in the Gold Cup – this horse is on trouncing form – although it’ll take a miracle for him to win I’d certainly not be surprised to see him slip home in second or third place. Finally, I’d say that TBP’s on “Neptune Colognes” and “Knowhere” are also bets with a bit of value. – all in all, to all those (including myself) backing this race pretty strong, GL to you!
- 16:05: Fox Hunters Chase – “Angus A Vic” – a 7 year old on good form I think he’s got every chance of beating this field. I’d really not be surprised if this race isn’t too close – and I think the 6.2 which I recently got him at is not a bad price.
- 16:40: Grand Annual Challenge: “Enlightenment” – I’d take this bet in terms of value more than anything. This horse is on good form and has every chance to pull this one off.
- 17:20: Country Handicap Hurdle: “Psyco” – good form on most ground types – I’d certainly fancy him to win here.
Alrighty – so my favourite three for the day: 1) Chamba Womba, 2) Forpadydeplasterer, 3) Franchoek and if you want to back the Gold Cup as more of a punt then a place bet on Afistfullofdollars would be a good choice.
So today I had two winners: In the Queen Mother Champion Chase I managed a win with Materminded whom I had £17 on at 3.7 – after other bets were settled it gave me a £39 profit. In the World Hurdle I had backed Inglis Drever for £35 at 2.5 which gave me a tidy profit of £50.
The Final Day has cometh – and what a day it’s going to be. - this will be the biggest sweat for the bookies since "Best Mate" shipped it in '02, '03 and '04. Is Kauto Star going to be the next punters favourite and bookies nightmare? - or has he just made every bookies' retirement fund?
So we have 9 races to come tomorrow – and I shall be sweating to the tune of £177.55 – sadly I have already lost £15 of that in the ante-post markets.
- 12:30: Mares Hurdle – “Chomba Womba” has to be one of my top tips for the day. This mare has a great form across pretty much all ground conditions – the only reason why she’s going at a carpet at the moment is because she’s never been tested on the Cheltenham course – I think she’s a good bet at 4.0. In this race I’ve also got a win and TBP bet on Silver Charmer (weighted to the TBP). I think she’s a good bet at around 100:1 – basically, she’s got such long odds because she’s a prone to pulling up and has sporadic successes – however, with Ruby Walsh at the reigns I think you’ll see the best performance from her – and if you can get pretty big odds I think she’s a nice little punt.
- 13:05: Ballymore Novice Hurdle – I haven’t changed my mind from “Forpadytheplasterer”. This horse has only been tested 4 times but has achieved a form of 1-2-1-1, so I can’t see why I’d be putting my money enywhere else.
- 13:40: Coral Cup – With such good current form I think “Leg Spinner” is a great bet. I have him at 6.2, I don’t think I’d like to go much below 4:1 (perhaps 7:2 at the very lowest) – however, this is purely to do with the competition. I think this is the best horse in the race, just not by a very long way.
- 14:15: Triumph Hurdle – “Franchoek” – this horse is having a staggering season (1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-3) – and it’s just been getting better. His last race so many punters decided his winning streak was due to come to come to an end and watched as he won by 9 lengths. A real Cheltenham regular, he loves this course and can win on any surface from good to firm to good to soft.
- 14:50: Novice Hurdle –“ Carruthers” – this horse is on steaming form, and has shown had quality runs over all grounds. I got him at 6.0 – and I’d say there’s still value there down to about 7:2.
- 15:30: Gold Cup – Okay – well if you have the gamble to bet on the winner then go for it (and make sure you pick “Kauto Star”) – however, if you want value – these are my recommendations. “Exotic Dancer” to win – I’d recommend that you bet this small and don’t take anything less than 13:1. “Afistfullofdollars” TBP; this was, at the time of posting, the best value bet I could find in the Gold Cup – this horse is on trouncing form – although it’ll take a miracle for him to win I’d certainly not be surprised to see him slip home in second or third place. Finally, I’d say that TBP’s on “Neptune Colognes” and “Knowhere” are also bets with a bit of value. – all in all, to all those (including myself) backing this race pretty strong, GL to you!
- 16:05: Fox Hunters Chase – “Angus A Vic” – a 7 year old on good form I think he’s got every chance of beating this field. I’d really not be surprised if this race isn’t too close – and I think the 6.2 which I recently got him at is not a bad price.
- 16:40: Grand Annual Challenge: “Enlightenment” – I’d take this bet in terms of value more than anything. This horse is on good form and has every chance to pull this one off.
- 17:20: Country Handicap Hurdle: “Psyco” – good form on most ground types – I’d certainly fancy him to win here.
Alrighty – so my favourite three for the day: 1) Chamba Womba, 2) Forpadydeplasterer, 3) Franchoek and if you want to back the Gold Cup as more of a punt then a place bet on Afistfullofdollars would be a good choice.
Wednesday 12 March 2008
CHELTENHAM CANCELLED FOR THE DAY
All ante-post bets stand still and the card has been split over Thursday and Friday – will write it up soon.
Major change will be is that there will be 9 races tomorrow and a fair few on Friday priot to the Gold Cup – this could make the ground heavy (instead of good to soft) this will certainly affect the odds on Kuato Star!
Major change will be is that there will be 9 races tomorrow and a fair few on Friday priot to the Gold Cup – this could make the ground heavy (instead of good to soft) this will certainly affect the odds on Kuato Star!
Tuesday 11 March 2008
Day 1 trip report, Day 2 forecast
Day 1: Mixed feelings!
- 2pm: Supreme Novice Hurdle: Very please with my selections here – “Captain Cee Bee” ran a great race and earned a well deserved victory and “Snap tie” came in third to up my profits in this race to over £50
- 2.35: Arkle Challenge: Well, I think I told everyone what to do with their money here and sure enough “Tidal Bay” won by 12 legnths – he jumped terribly but his speed and stamina made up for his constant mistakes over the hurdles. My victory in this race was, however, short lived – just as I added my £42 profit from this race to my initial profits I realised that I hadn’t actually placed the bet, and as a result had actually made a small loss on “Moon over Miami”! – so it’s not just the poker gods that hate me!
- 3:15: Champion Hurdle: This one hurt me. I had “Osana” to win, “Harchibald” e/w and “Sublimity” e/w. Coming up to the last 150 metres the field was “Osana”, “Katchit”, “Sublimity”, Punjabi – over the line it went; “Katchit”, “Osana”, “Punjabi”, “Sublimity” – a loss of £58! (when it was nearly a win of £21 – grrr)
- Will Hill Chase – I didn’t watch this one as my two ante-post choices, “Battlecry” and “afistfullofdollars “had been pulled and my last hope “Abragante” put in a poor effort – only a £10 loss though.
- The Champion Bumper – well, this was my ‘break even or die trying’ race. I put a bet on Ashkazar just before the race at 2.88 started and I also had Chapoturgeon at 22.0. My horse was leading by two lengths but managed to lose to the second favourite.
So – day one behind us and I’m down £31.97. Just really upset about not placing my second bet (and thinking I had until after the race), and also angry that I chose not to back the horse that went on to win the Cross Country Chase after I had tipped a friend about it and had to listen to his drunken rant about how sick a tip it was. Lol
So – Tomorrow –
Well – the ground is still good to soft and I’m praying it stays that way! So, tbh my choices haven’t changed at all.
- 2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdle – “Forpadydeplasterer” is still my choice here. A great horse who I’m sure can put in a good performance.
- 2:35pm – Sun Alliance Chase – I’d still say that “Silverburn” is a great value e/w choice. But “Tidal Bay” is also running, and with the confidence from todays win driving him on I’d say at 13.0 this is certainly some value, as is the TBP option at 4.1.
- 3:15 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Not a race to take any horses to place. I’m reasonably happy with “Masterminded” and “Voy Por Ustedes” - I know that both “Twist Magic” and “Tamerinbleu” are seeing heaps of action but I’m sticking with my original view. “Masterminded” is perfect for this race; currently on great form with two wins in small fields on ground good to soft. “Voy Por Usterdes” didn’t win his last race but has a great lifetime form of 2-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-3, with a good to soft form of 2-1-1-1-1.
- 4pm – Coral Cup – You have to fancy “Leg Spinner” here. He’s taken down some big fields in the past, likes the ground good to soft, and in my opinion is the horse they all have to beat.
Okies – so yer, only backin the first 4 races – I had long-shot views in the ante-post markets for “Toby Jug” and “Endless Intrigue” but neither have been entered for the race. My only big-money sweat is “Masterminded” – it’s a bit painful to be coming from behind already – but hey, lets hope we can make up our lost ground.
So yer: my top tip for the day is: “Forepadydeplasterer” to win!
- 2pm: Supreme Novice Hurdle: Very please with my selections here – “Captain Cee Bee” ran a great race and earned a well deserved victory and “Snap tie” came in third to up my profits in this race to over £50
- 2.35: Arkle Challenge: Well, I think I told everyone what to do with their money here and sure enough “Tidal Bay” won by 12 legnths – he jumped terribly but his speed and stamina made up for his constant mistakes over the hurdles. My victory in this race was, however, short lived – just as I added my £42 profit from this race to my initial profits I realised that I hadn’t actually placed the bet, and as a result had actually made a small loss on “Moon over Miami”! – so it’s not just the poker gods that hate me!
- 3:15: Champion Hurdle: This one hurt me. I had “Osana” to win, “Harchibald” e/w and “Sublimity” e/w. Coming up to the last 150 metres the field was “Osana”, “Katchit”, “Sublimity”, Punjabi – over the line it went; “Katchit”, “Osana”, “Punjabi”, “Sublimity” – a loss of £58! (when it was nearly a win of £21 – grrr)
- Will Hill Chase – I didn’t watch this one as my two ante-post choices, “Battlecry” and “afistfullofdollars “had been pulled and my last hope “Abragante” put in a poor effort – only a £10 loss though.
- The Champion Bumper – well, this was my ‘break even or die trying’ race. I put a bet on Ashkazar just before the race at 2.88 started and I also had Chapoturgeon at 22.0. My horse was leading by two lengths but managed to lose to the second favourite.
So – day one behind us and I’m down £31.97. Just really upset about not placing my second bet (and thinking I had until after the race), and also angry that I chose not to back the horse that went on to win the Cross Country Chase after I had tipped a friend about it and had to listen to his drunken rant about how sick a tip it was. Lol
So – Tomorrow –
Well – the ground is still good to soft and I’m praying it stays that way! So, tbh my choices haven’t changed at all.
- 2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdle – “Forpadydeplasterer” is still my choice here. A great horse who I’m sure can put in a good performance.
- 2:35pm – Sun Alliance Chase – I’d still say that “Silverburn” is a great value e/w choice. But “Tidal Bay” is also running, and with the confidence from todays win driving him on I’d say at 13.0 this is certainly some value, as is the TBP option at 4.1.
- 3:15 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Not a race to take any horses to place. I’m reasonably happy with “Masterminded” and “Voy Por Ustedes” - I know that both “Twist Magic” and “Tamerinbleu” are seeing heaps of action but I’m sticking with my original view. “Masterminded” is perfect for this race; currently on great form with two wins in small fields on ground good to soft. “Voy Por Usterdes” didn’t win his last race but has a great lifetime form of 2-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-3, with a good to soft form of 2-1-1-1-1.
- 4pm – Coral Cup – You have to fancy “Leg Spinner” here. He’s taken down some big fields in the past, likes the ground good to soft, and in my opinion is the horse they all have to beat.
Okies – so yer, only backin the first 4 races – I had long-shot views in the ante-post markets for “Toby Jug” and “Endless Intrigue” but neither have been entered for the race. My only big-money sweat is “Masterminded” – it’s a bit painful to be coming from behind already – but hey, lets hope we can make up our lost ground.
So yer: my top tip for the day is: “Forepadydeplasterer” to win!
Saturday 8 March 2008
Ollie's Picks for days 1 and 2 of the Cheltenham Festival - March 11th and 12th.
Okies – well I’ve actually had a couple of requests for my picks in the Cheltenham Festival. So, before I start I should probably explain why I believe my choices are credible. Firstly – trends – it is important to look at historical trends, especially for Cheltenham – no other National Hunt racecourse has so many repeat winners. There is also a good collection of horses that love Cheltenham, but just can’t get it together on other courses. Needless to say I make sure I have lots of info available to me when searching for trends.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
Wednesday 5 March 2008
New Game, and here comes Chelts!
Well – poker has been running pretty good recently. I’ve changed my style and I think I’m also running better than before. I’ve been trying to keep to a maximum of 6 well selected tables and I’ve really been trying to open up my game. Instead of folding certain hands in certain positions and raising others I’ve been looking at my opponents stats and basing my pre-flop decisions more closely around that than the strength or weakness of my holding. I know these are all simple concepts, and things that I used to do, but I think I just became carried away with the loose donks on PTY and chose to focus on playing big pots with them at the expense of the rest of my game.
Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!
But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.
Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.
I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!
As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.
This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.
Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.
Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!
But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.
Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.
I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!
As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.
This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.
Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.
Sunday 2 March 2008
Cheltenham update
To all those who are interested in the Olympics of Horse Racing that is Cheltenham Festival:
I’m currently in the middle of putting together my view for the week. Between the 11th and the 14th of March there will be 25 races – it’s a bitch for the punter to handicap, and it’s also a bitch for the bookies. Although the big races will have so much volume and have been handicapped to the finest degree, it is almost guaranteed that some of the smaller races will be won by relative unknowns running with a shit load of value.
I’m currently working on the form for some of the big races – and fuck me is it tough – there’s such quality out there this year that I’m constantly getting down to 4 potentials and just not knowing where to go from there. But help is at hand – one of my good friends from Cheltenham is going to the pre-race meet to rub shoulders with jockeys and owners – and because he’s from a horse owning family he’s certainly on the inner circle when it comes to his advice. – so hopefully there shall be some good tips going up on this blog.
For now I’m going to give you a couple of outsiders who I think are worth a punt:
- Tuesday 11th, Juvenile Novice Hurdle, “Chapoturgeon”, e/w advisable.
- Wednesday 12th, National Hunt Chase, “Toby Jug”, massive outsider, but I think he’s certainly worth a punt – 55.0 to win in the ante-post markets!
- Friday 14th, Fox Hunters Chase, “Thisthatandtother”, e/w advisable
- Friday 14th, Mares Only Hurdle, “Silver Charmer”, 18.0 TBP (betfair ante-post) are great odds!
And for those who don’t watch racing apart from the Grand National; please listen to me when I implore you to watch the Gold Cup race (Friday, 3:15pm). This is going to be the most exciting race since the 1960s and perhaps the most exciting Gold Cup ever.
“Exotic Dancer” one of the best horses we’ve seen in year will be lining up at 14:1, why? because he’s going to be up against the astonishing talent of “Kuato Star” and “Denman”. “Denman”; an old fashioned chaser, absolutely solid, will crush pretty much any field and has enough stamina to complete a victory lap. He’ll be up against his equal and opposite; “Kuato Star”- a speedster, his victories are always decisive, he has all the flair and arrogance of a world champion boxer crossed with a Russian ballerina and is looking to win his second Cheltenham Gold Cup. This race will be talked about for years, whatever the outcome, so whatever you do – don’t fucking miss it! – I’ll be watching it from the Champagne Bar on the finishing straight! - lol (depending on how my day is going...)
I’m currently in the middle of putting together my view for the week. Between the 11th and the 14th of March there will be 25 races – it’s a bitch for the punter to handicap, and it’s also a bitch for the bookies. Although the big races will have so much volume and have been handicapped to the finest degree, it is almost guaranteed that some of the smaller races will be won by relative unknowns running with a shit load of value.
I’m currently working on the form for some of the big races – and fuck me is it tough – there’s such quality out there this year that I’m constantly getting down to 4 potentials and just not knowing where to go from there. But help is at hand – one of my good friends from Cheltenham is going to the pre-race meet to rub shoulders with jockeys and owners – and because he’s from a horse owning family he’s certainly on the inner circle when it comes to his advice. – so hopefully there shall be some good tips going up on this blog.
For now I’m going to give you a couple of outsiders who I think are worth a punt:
- Tuesday 11th, Juvenile Novice Hurdle, “Chapoturgeon”, e/w advisable.
- Wednesday 12th, National Hunt Chase, “Toby Jug”, massive outsider, but I think he’s certainly worth a punt – 55.0 to win in the ante-post markets!
- Friday 14th, Fox Hunters Chase, “Thisthatandtother”, e/w advisable
- Friday 14th, Mares Only Hurdle, “Silver Charmer”, 18.0 TBP (betfair ante-post) are great odds!
And for those who don’t watch racing apart from the Grand National; please listen to me when I implore you to watch the Gold Cup race (Friday, 3:15pm). This is going to be the most exciting race since the 1960s and perhaps the most exciting Gold Cup ever.
“Exotic Dancer” one of the best horses we’ve seen in year will be lining up at 14:1, why? because he’s going to be up against the astonishing talent of “Kuato Star” and “Denman”. “Denman”; an old fashioned chaser, absolutely solid, will crush pretty much any field and has enough stamina to complete a victory lap. He’ll be up against his equal and opposite; “Kuato Star”- a speedster, his victories are always decisive, he has all the flair and arrogance of a world champion boxer crossed with a Russian ballerina and is looking to win his second Cheltenham Gold Cup. This race will be talked about for years, whatever the outcome, so whatever you do – don’t fucking miss it! – I’ll be watching it from the Champagne Bar on the finishing straight! - lol (depending on how my day is going...)
Tuesday 26 February 2008
eeek - 6 buy ins in the wrong direction...
So I just played my worst ever session on PTY. I think I got unlucky but also played pretty horrendously towards the end of the session. There’s a few hands which stick out a bit that perhaps I should mention.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173381 – I think this hand is a call - I do hate going broke on AA in an a 2-bet pot – but when he shoves here I just don’t think I can fold. The vil is playing 25/8 which makes it less likely that he’s raising pps from the blinds – but I think his shove looks like a draw.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173421 – this hand I hate myself for. Vil is 22/16 so I know the guy’s a solid player. On the flop he tanks and then calls – I know that looks dodgy, and either means he’s flushing or he’s got a set. The deuce on the turn let’s me know that it’s unlikely he had the deuce set and the JJJ set is almost out of the question – so it’s 4s or the flush draw – when he shoves on me after the turn it does put me in a bit of a situation – although I’m getting 3:1 on the call I’m thinking he has a house almost enough of the time to merit a fold – but I was tilting so I called... 100% shitty play by me!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173451 – I think this hand is rather marginal – the donkey is playing 50/0 and has recently made an expert call on two streets with an under pair (that was actually good) against me. If he raises the turn I can fold this hand – but as played I’m not sure how I get away from it.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173783 – this is another pot that I knew I wasn’t winning on the turn. And I could have told you what that king did to his hand. Bit of a cooler really – having a fair bit of trouble with fish and their gutshots atm.
Other than these hands there were a few others where I continuously failed to hold up. In fact the only stack I took was my AK vs QQ. Think this was a mixture of running bad and playing bad – I should have quit when I was showing a $125 loss, however, I don’t think I was playing really terribly until I hit the $200 loss – even then, the biggest hand I lost was when I was gutshotted. Overall, down $268 for the week which means a little more time before I move up...
I think my gambling is becoming a little reckless atm. I don’t think I am putting 100% of the effort I should be putting into the game and I keep taking risks, such as betting turns where a check may be more +ev. Perhaps I need to get over this before I go back to the game.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173381 – I think this hand is a call - I do hate going broke on AA in an a 2-bet pot – but when he shoves here I just don’t think I can fold. The vil is playing 25/8 which makes it less likely that he’s raising pps from the blinds – but I think his shove looks like a draw.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173421 – this hand I hate myself for. Vil is 22/16 so I know the guy’s a solid player. On the flop he tanks and then calls – I know that looks dodgy, and either means he’s flushing or he’s got a set. The deuce on the turn let’s me know that it’s unlikely he had the deuce set and the JJJ set is almost out of the question – so it’s 4s or the flush draw – when he shoves on me after the turn it does put me in a bit of a situation – although I’m getting 3:1 on the call I’m thinking he has a house almost enough of the time to merit a fold – but I was tilting so I called... 100% shitty play by me!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173451 – I think this hand is rather marginal – the donkey is playing 50/0 and has recently made an expert call on two streets with an under pair (that was actually good) against me. If he raises the turn I can fold this hand – but as played I’m not sure how I get away from it.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173783 – this is another pot that I knew I wasn’t winning on the turn. And I could have told you what that king did to his hand. Bit of a cooler really – having a fair bit of trouble with fish and their gutshots atm.
Other than these hands there were a few others where I continuously failed to hold up. In fact the only stack I took was my AK vs QQ. Think this was a mixture of running bad and playing bad – I should have quit when I was showing a $125 loss, however, I don’t think I was playing really terribly until I hit the $200 loss – even then, the biggest hand I lost was when I was gutshotted. Overall, down $268 for the week which means a little more time before I move up...
I think my gambling is becoming a little reckless atm. I don’t think I am putting 100% of the effort I should be putting into the game and I keep taking risks, such as betting turns where a check may be more +ev. Perhaps I need to get over this before I go back to the game.
Monday 25 February 2008
weekend of racing
Quick report on the weekend:
1st race I had was the 14:40 at Kempton. I had reasonably good advice to take the fav in this race, however after leading the whole race by several lengths he managed to fall at the penultimate hurdle and it was all over as Walsh rode Oslot, the 11:1 outsider to his first Kempton victory.
2nd race. This was my main race for the day, I had several horses backed here and I have to say it went a bit Pete Tong for me. My top tip (from the post below) was Ungaro who managed about a furlong before falling at the 2nd fence. Simon ran well, but as was suspected, his age, lack of current form and handicap weight let him down and he didn’t manage a place. The top tipped outsiders also showed some strength and I believe I managed to get a 3rd place out of one of my long shots – I can’t remember which coz I had him backed to win so didn’t really give a shit. After a fairly relaxed race Walsh managed to bring Gungadu home in what could have been an exciting victory, if I had him backed. In sum; pretty shit for me.
3rd race. Well, this was meant to be the easiest victory for the GN favourite Snowy Morning. Against a field of the elderly and the inexperienced his victory was meant to be decisive. However, he ran poorly and finished 3rd, which was a hell of a shame as I had £75 on him to win at 1.38. According to the jockey he may have a respiratory problem, which is probably why the ante post favourite has fallen from being 11.5 on betfair to 24.0for the National. However, as his trainers claim that he’s fine and that he will definitely run in the National – perhaps, amongst this negative market speculation, it is time to get some more money down on him...
One notable development at Fairyhouse was Hedgehunters performance: perhaps he’s a good place bet for the National...
1st race I had was the 14:40 at Kempton. I had reasonably good advice to take the fav in this race, however after leading the whole race by several lengths he managed to fall at the penultimate hurdle and it was all over as Walsh rode Oslot, the 11:1 outsider to his first Kempton victory.
2nd race. This was my main race for the day, I had several horses backed here and I have to say it went a bit Pete Tong for me. My top tip (from the post below) was Ungaro who managed about a furlong before falling at the 2nd fence. Simon ran well, but as was suspected, his age, lack of current form and handicap weight let him down and he didn’t manage a place. The top tipped outsiders also showed some strength and I believe I managed to get a 3rd place out of one of my long shots – I can’t remember which coz I had him backed to win so didn’t really give a shit. After a fairly relaxed race Walsh managed to bring Gungadu home in what could have been an exciting victory, if I had him backed. In sum; pretty shit for me.
3rd race. Well, this was meant to be the easiest victory for the GN favourite Snowy Morning. Against a field of the elderly and the inexperienced his victory was meant to be decisive. However, he ran poorly and finished 3rd, which was a hell of a shame as I had £75 on him to win at 1.38. According to the jockey he may have a respiratory problem, which is probably why the ante post favourite has fallen from being 11.5 on betfair to 24.0for the National. However, as his trainers claim that he’s fine and that he will definitely run in the National – perhaps, amongst this negative market speculation, it is time to get some more money down on him...
One notable development at Fairyhouse was Hedgehunters performance: perhaps he’s a good place bet for the National...
Wednesday 20 February 2008
Kempton and Fairyhouse
Finally – a race that’s worth watching. This is the only big test remaining before Gold Cup week starts in Cheltenham. The 23rd Feb at Kempton and the Racing Post Handicap Chase (3:15). Won last year by Simon who went on to become a front runner for the National but failed to succeed falling six fences from home. This year Simon is 3rd favourite, but I still don’t think I’ll be backing him. He has really failed to live up to expectations since this race last year and for this reason I think his odds represent a sense of nostalgia rather than any his ability.
Simon’s odds, nonetheless, do reflect the fact his credentials match the trends: previous winners have performed well on the Kempton track and almost all winners have had previous successes at this distance (3m). However, of the previous nine winners, eight have won their last outings – Simon did not. In addition to this Simon clearly favours soft ground, and the conditions are expected to be fair. In my opinion, horses who favour soft, and have achieved notable victories on such ground, find it much more difficult to convert their abilities to a fairer surface than the competition. On this note, this factor is holding Kuato Star favourite over Denman in the Chelts Gold Cup.
The favourite, Gunadu, ran very well at Sandown earlier this month with Jockey Sam Thomas. However, his recent form with R. Walsh hasn’t been great, and perhaps this should be taken into account before backing him too hard. Nonetheless I think I’d give this horse a 7:2 shot at winning this race – so if you don’t mind anteposting on betfair I think the value is there. His success over this distance is of notoriety; however a win a Kempton is clearly missing from his criteria.
Ungaro is second on the books and is a strong second favourite. He’s a good runner, and certain to finish, however he hasn’t been first across the line since December ’06 – nonetheless – that was at Kempton. I really believe the odds on this particular horse are swayed by his form on this course, because he’s just not been able to bring it home for his syndicate recently. But, he’s certainly generating bit of action and his second place finish on good ground in Doncaster late January would lead one to believe that he could bring home this trophy.
There’s no run-away favourite in this race as Exotic Dancer pulled out a few days prior; so it’s certainly a race for the speculators. I also think the fact it’s fairly open means that a couple of outsider bets may prove fruitful. Bagan, for example, currently at 13:1 on betfair is a great antepost bet. A win at the Warwick course in the chase there earlier this month and a very respectable season altogether means that although this horse might not be the same calibre of some of the front runners the odds are still very much worth a £5 punt – I’ve already got mine down (at 17:1). Only notable disadvantage is that he prefers good to soft.
Wee Robbie is the biggest mover in the market, whilst writing this I tried to get a punt down on him and had to alter my odds for half the bet to process on betfair. It is recommended that you back him e/w, but hey, I’ve got him to win in the antepost markets. Is this a bit of a market bubble or could backing him be profitable?
Finally, if you want real value for money get a couple of quid on Herecomesstanley - at 45:1 on betfair he seems like a real outsider but has performed well at Kempton in the past and has notched up a fair few small victories this season. So if you want a real punt – you got one here!
In sum: if you want a good shot at some cash back Gunadu or Ungaro – of the two I’d probably take Ungaro – I feel the odds are fairer and more reflective of the fact that both of these horse have been thrown into the breach created by Dancers’ exit.
*****************
This weekend’s racing also has a feature or two in Ireland. I’d certainly not call myself knowledgeable of Irish race courses – I’d find it hard pointing to some of them on a map. However, I have a couple of views for Fairyhouse in the Emerald Isle. The “At the Races Bobbyjo Chase” (4.20) has one very notable runner: Snowy Morning. Snowy is currently holding the number one spot in the Grand National – one should note that only 4 of the last 28 National winners have been favourites, nonetheless, this is a very capable horse that is almost sure to win against the field. Bet him to win!
If you want to add to your winning ticket I recommend backing Chelsea Harbour to place. He’s been running well and is currently climbing up the ante-post markets for the National. This will certainly be a test for him, and if he’s successful, you can be sure that all those who have got their money on him for Aintree will be laughing as the punters scramble for his decreasing odds.
Best of luck over the weekend!
Simon’s odds, nonetheless, do reflect the fact his credentials match the trends: previous winners have performed well on the Kempton track and almost all winners have had previous successes at this distance (3m). However, of the previous nine winners, eight have won their last outings – Simon did not. In addition to this Simon clearly favours soft ground, and the conditions are expected to be fair. In my opinion, horses who favour soft, and have achieved notable victories on such ground, find it much more difficult to convert their abilities to a fairer surface than the competition. On this note, this factor is holding Kuato Star favourite over Denman in the Chelts Gold Cup.
The favourite, Gunadu, ran very well at Sandown earlier this month with Jockey Sam Thomas. However, his recent form with R. Walsh hasn’t been great, and perhaps this should be taken into account before backing him too hard. Nonetheless I think I’d give this horse a 7:2 shot at winning this race – so if you don’t mind anteposting on betfair I think the value is there. His success over this distance is of notoriety; however a win a Kempton is clearly missing from his criteria.
Ungaro is second on the books and is a strong second favourite. He’s a good runner, and certain to finish, however he hasn’t been first across the line since December ’06 – nonetheless – that was at Kempton. I really believe the odds on this particular horse are swayed by his form on this course, because he’s just not been able to bring it home for his syndicate recently. But, he’s certainly generating bit of action and his second place finish on good ground in Doncaster late January would lead one to believe that he could bring home this trophy.
There’s no run-away favourite in this race as Exotic Dancer pulled out a few days prior; so it’s certainly a race for the speculators. I also think the fact it’s fairly open means that a couple of outsider bets may prove fruitful. Bagan, for example, currently at 13:1 on betfair is a great antepost bet. A win at the Warwick course in the chase there earlier this month and a very respectable season altogether means that although this horse might not be the same calibre of some of the front runners the odds are still very much worth a £5 punt – I’ve already got mine down (at 17:1). Only notable disadvantage is that he prefers good to soft.
Wee Robbie is the biggest mover in the market, whilst writing this I tried to get a punt down on him and had to alter my odds for half the bet to process on betfair. It is recommended that you back him e/w, but hey, I’ve got him to win in the antepost markets. Is this a bit of a market bubble or could backing him be profitable?
Finally, if you want real value for money get a couple of quid on Herecomesstanley - at 45:1 on betfair he seems like a real outsider but has performed well at Kempton in the past and has notched up a fair few small victories this season. So if you want a real punt – you got one here!
In sum: if you want a good shot at some cash back Gunadu or Ungaro – of the two I’d probably take Ungaro – I feel the odds are fairer and more reflective of the fact that both of these horse have been thrown into the breach created by Dancers’ exit.
*****************
This weekend’s racing also has a feature or two in Ireland. I’d certainly not call myself knowledgeable of Irish race courses – I’d find it hard pointing to some of them on a map. However, I have a couple of views for Fairyhouse in the Emerald Isle. The “At the Races Bobbyjo Chase” (4.20) has one very notable runner: Snowy Morning. Snowy is currently holding the number one spot in the Grand National – one should note that only 4 of the last 28 National winners have been favourites, nonetheless, this is a very capable horse that is almost sure to win against the field. Bet him to win!
If you want to add to your winning ticket I recommend backing Chelsea Harbour to place. He’s been running well and is currently climbing up the ante-post markets for the National. This will certainly be a test for him, and if he’s successful, you can be sure that all those who have got their money on him for Aintree will be laughing as the punters scramble for his decreasing odds.
Best of luck over the weekend!
Tuesday 19 February 2008
running hot!
Well – it seems that my friend used up my whole luck box and took out a luck loan which is currently charging very high interest. I played a 1 hour session today and successfully lost 3 buy-ins.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128539 – well, I thought I should be ahead against this 50 vpip moron and thought nothing about calling his shove – sadely, the contence ofmy luck box being empty meant I got the cash in 4:1 behind.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128594 – next hand I played I managed to up it to being an 8:1 dog.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128548 – 4:1 to win, again – this time he pretty much spelled out his hand by the fact he was playing 40/5 and chose to use the multiple min raise policy. (44:1 to have your KK run into AA – sure it is)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128561 – well on the 88th time I had KK in the 1 hour session – would you believe it... lol. Nope – I had KK 7 times, and 2 of them I was up against... you guessed it... in fact – in the 82 times I have had KK since January I have run into AA 5 times, and lost to QQ (AIP) twice. In the words of Ged – “I run shit hot!”
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128582 – in fact, this was the only big hand I managed to win. And this kinda played itself...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128586 – I love this hand, the way I played it was pretty damn good – but his expert read on the dealer gave him a massive edge. Hmmm – I wonder how many times I have lost when I have someone dead to three outs...
What I loved most about this day time session is that after every time I got stacked the vil left within about 3 hands – so please, please, please – if you stack any of these people – sit out immediately and berate them for a few mins.
Anyways – that’s the end of my rant – I’m now going to focus on my degree for a few hours. But I’ll probably play an evening session – let’s see if I can get a little luckier then...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128539 – well, I thought I should be ahead against this 50 vpip moron and thought nothing about calling his shove – sadely, the contence ofmy luck box being empty meant I got the cash in 4:1 behind.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128594 – next hand I played I managed to up it to being an 8:1 dog.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128548 – 4:1 to win, again – this time he pretty much spelled out his hand by the fact he was playing 40/5 and chose to use the multiple min raise policy. (44:1 to have your KK run into AA – sure it is)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128561 – well on the 88th time I had KK in the 1 hour session – would you believe it... lol. Nope – I had KK 7 times, and 2 of them I was up against... you guessed it... in fact – in the 82 times I have had KK since January I have run into AA 5 times, and lost to QQ (AIP) twice. In the words of Ged – “I run shit hot!”
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128582 – in fact, this was the only big hand I managed to win. And this kinda played itself...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128586 – I love this hand, the way I played it was pretty damn good – but his expert read on the dealer gave him a massive edge. Hmmm – I wonder how many times I have lost when I have someone dead to three outs...
What I loved most about this day time session is that after every time I got stacked the vil left within about 3 hands – so please, please, please – if you stack any of these people – sit out immediately and berate them for a few mins.
Anyways – that’s the end of my rant – I’m now going to focus on my degree for a few hours. But I’ll probably play an evening session – let’s see if I can get a little luckier then...
As an after thought I decided to have a look at how many times I have had KK vs AA. I have run KK into AA 14 times over the last 75,000 hands on PTY – this means it happens every 24.5 times I have KK. Including other sites I have a sample of 115,000 hands and it has happened 18 times – roughly 1 in 28 times I have KK. Now obviously, it should statistically happen 1 in 44 times (a player will be dealt AA every 220 hands, and so with 5 other players at the table...) Basically, does this mean I run bad? – discuss... lol
Friday 15 February 2008
$10/$20 is where the fish are swimming!
$10/$20 trip report
Yer – decided to take Kader’s advice and move up to where the respect my raises – there were no $25/$50 tables runningso had to make do with $10/$20.
I decided to fain drunkenness in order to beat the game:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105278 – well this hand may look fishy to those who aren’t regs on PTY, however, those who are understand that being dead to 4 outs is in no way a bad spot to get your money in. Ship the $1400 pot to the Prof!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105275 – when you realise you have no showdown value it’s probably a good idea to shove for pot in order to win. Many people are scared to make this move because of the high variance, but I recon it works about 12% of the time.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105279 – in this hand we see another technique – it’s called the river value min raise – it’s a difficult move to pull off without a table to players vying for your chips.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105282 – AK is very much a drawing hand, and for this reason it must be played to the river sometimes in order to draw to a pair – however, if you fail to make a pair you should be looking to fold or shove – it’s fairly neutral.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105285 – with top pair no kicker you should be looking most players up – esp. this vil, mainly because he’s called Haki – which has connotations with Tony the Hitman Hakki.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105284 – at this level you must remember the pros feed on weakness – therefore, in order to avoid being sharked – don’t show any weakness. Not betting all three streets with bottom pair is a leak in most people’s games.
Okies – so there you have it – ProfPOWER made $985 in 44 hands – which, my friends, is a pretty good win rate.
GL at the tables
(disclaimer: may not have been Ollie Power playing – but the advice clearly came from a pro)
Yer – decided to take Kader’s advice and move up to where the respect my raises – there were no $25/$50 tables runningso had to make do with $10/$20.
I decided to fain drunkenness in order to beat the game:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105278 – well this hand may look fishy to those who aren’t regs on PTY, however, those who are understand that being dead to 4 outs is in no way a bad spot to get your money in. Ship the $1400 pot to the Prof!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105275 – when you realise you have no showdown value it’s probably a good idea to shove for pot in order to win. Many people are scared to make this move because of the high variance, but I recon it works about 12% of the time.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105279 – in this hand we see another technique – it’s called the river value min raise – it’s a difficult move to pull off without a table to players vying for your chips.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105282 – AK is very much a drawing hand, and for this reason it must be played to the river sometimes in order to draw to a pair – however, if you fail to make a pair you should be looking to fold or shove – it’s fairly neutral.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105285 – with top pair no kicker you should be looking most players up – esp. this vil, mainly because he’s called Haki – which has connotations with Tony the Hitman Hakki.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105284 – at this level you must remember the pros feed on weakness – therefore, in order to avoid being sharked – don’t show any weakness. Not betting all three streets with bottom pair is a leak in most people’s games.
Okies – so there you have it – ProfPOWER made $985 in 44 hands – which, my friends, is a pretty good win rate.
GL at the tables
(disclaimer: may not have been Ollie Power playing – but the advice clearly came from a pro)
Friday 8 February 2008
Grand National '08 revisited - (poker post from 7th Feb below)
I think it’s time to review the Grand National Handicap Chase at Aintree once again. As I mentioned early in January, the only way to beat this race is to get your bets down early. The reason being, the bookies know the demand to place bets on this race, and for that reason the odds in the run up and on the day are atrocious. Imagine trying to beat a poker game with an uncapped 25-30% rake – that’s what you are up against on the day of the race.
Well, I told all those who read my blog to back the, then, favourite, Mr Pointment, and to also take Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. Well, tbh, I didn’t quite get it right this time, the odds on Pointment and Cabin have since improved, but Berry’s have fallen 2.5 points. One must understand that the reason for the latest movements have been due to the recent release of the handicap weights – and the reason that Pointment and Cabin are less favoured by the punters now is due to the weights they will be carrying, however, in my opinion this extra weight will give you better odds on what are two fantastic horses each with a great chance of a win.
The new favourite, Snowy Morning, is also, in my opinion, a well rounded horse, but you must back him soon if you want to get money down. From this point onwards there a few tests in the way of these front runners so little information is to be gained, therefore, by waiting you are just decreasing your profits.
Being the Grand National there is a sense of “anything can happen”, indeed, Silver Birch bent every trend in the race’s history to finish ahead of the field last year, and while I’d say that luck played a big part in his victory, I still think there is money to be made on the outsiders. On betfair you can now back horses to “place” and when backing outsiders this is much better value than taking an each way bet as you get the same returns over all paid places.
If you are looking for some long odds (low-risk big-profits style), then I’d recommend Chelsea Harbour – after his decisive victory over the field at Punchtown on Sunday his odds have fallen away a bit but he’s still at 39:1 on betfair and that’s good value. Vodka Bleu has also been running fairly well at Cheltenham and at 43:1 and he probably has what it takes if all goes to plan on the day – I will take even money action from anyone who wants to bet that odds on these horses won’t fall below 23:1 by the day of the race!
Below is what I’d call the perfect ante-post race card for someone looking to get about a £100 return on the day. (horse/stake)
Snowy Morning/£14, Mr. Pointment/£11, Bewleys Berry/£11, Cloudy Lane/£10, Butlers Cabin/10, Simon/£9, Chelsea Harbour/£4.50, Vodka Bleu/£4 – total exposure £73.50
If anyone has any views or opinions please post them, I would very much like to hear a few other opinions on this race.
Well, I told all those who read my blog to back the, then, favourite, Mr Pointment, and to also take Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. Well, tbh, I didn’t quite get it right this time, the odds on Pointment and Cabin have since improved, but Berry’s have fallen 2.5 points. One must understand that the reason for the latest movements have been due to the recent release of the handicap weights – and the reason that Pointment and Cabin are less favoured by the punters now is due to the weights they will be carrying, however, in my opinion this extra weight will give you better odds on what are two fantastic horses each with a great chance of a win.
The new favourite, Snowy Morning, is also, in my opinion, a well rounded horse, but you must back him soon if you want to get money down. From this point onwards there a few tests in the way of these front runners so little information is to be gained, therefore, by waiting you are just decreasing your profits.
Being the Grand National there is a sense of “anything can happen”, indeed, Silver Birch bent every trend in the race’s history to finish ahead of the field last year, and while I’d say that luck played a big part in his victory, I still think there is money to be made on the outsiders. On betfair you can now back horses to “place” and when backing outsiders this is much better value than taking an each way bet as you get the same returns over all paid places.
If you are looking for some long odds (low-risk big-profits style), then I’d recommend Chelsea Harbour – after his decisive victory over the field at Punchtown on Sunday his odds have fallen away a bit but he’s still at 39:1 on betfair and that’s good value. Vodka Bleu has also been running fairly well at Cheltenham and at 43:1 and he probably has what it takes if all goes to plan on the day – I will take even money action from anyone who wants to bet that odds on these horses won’t fall below 23:1 by the day of the race!
Below is what I’d call the perfect ante-post race card for someone looking to get about a £100 return on the day. (horse/stake)
Snowy Morning/£14, Mr. Pointment/£11, Bewleys Berry/£11, Cloudy Lane/£10, Butlers Cabin/10, Simon/£9, Chelsea Harbour/£4.50, Vodka Bleu/£4 – total exposure £73.50
If anyone has any views or opinions please post them, I would very much like to hear a few other opinions on this race.
Thursday 7 February 2008
"wtf, nh sir... wp.... love how you disguised it by calling off half you stack with it pre..."
Just finished another sub 5 buy-ins session. Cannot believe how bad I run. Or perhaps, I just won’t accept how bad I play.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061546 – right, so my bad, I presumed that to call 10% of your stack pre you had to have a holding that wouldn’t connect with any part of that flop... how wrong was i?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061540 – I can almost hear it now: “you make money from fish making stupid calls like this” – well, against me I think he’s 50/50 with this hand, so it’s a good call pre and on the flop I suppose!
This is fairly standard for the way I run with big pairs: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061534
This was the last hand I played of the session, don’t think I made too many mistakes – perhaps should have folded pre. http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061521
So these are the hands which have left me tilting a little – but I think I lost a fair chunk just through 3-betting my big holdings. I’m just finding that I get called all the time, and then it’s difficult to carry on after the flop: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061557 – btw, even if I flop the ace or king here I don’t think I can go broke on the hand, I almost have to treat it like a 2-bet pot, don’t I?
I think the main area where I’m losing money is with big holdings. In a hand like this http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061581 I know he has a set of jacks, but because I have put in the large 3-bet and had it called I have to go with the hand.
I’m just finding that with ever increasing frequency I’m having big bets called with hands that are looking to catch, and recently, they haven’t had much of a problem catching.
Basically, I have to confess I’m getting a little bored of these stakes – I still have a $2500 roll and I am seriously thinking of just taking a shot at a higher level – if I lose 5 buy ins I think I’ll just withdraw what I have left and call it a day. I just think, I used to enjoy analysing hands and my play, but now it’s all getting a little tedious as the big red number grows. At one point I was absolutely crushing PTY, why?, I was hitting a set 1 in 10 times, I wasn’t getting coolered too much, my big pairs held sometimes, basically I was running statistically okay. Now, well I don’t have a clue what has happened. I get coolered once or twice a session (including set over set 200bbs deep), I get KK vs AA at least once every 15 times I have KK (should be 1 in 42 on 6 max I believe – but those calculations make it sound like a rare occurrence!), I just never seem to flop a set – and the times I do they have absolutely nothing. I still play fairly nitty, but hey, they’ll still call $10 pre wit J7s. what can I say; I’m probably not getting out-played too much, but out-flopped – yer, think that’s the problem.
Ty for reading, suggestions always welcome.
Gl at the tables
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061546 – right, so my bad, I presumed that to call 10% of your stack pre you had to have a holding that wouldn’t connect with any part of that flop... how wrong was i?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061540 – I can almost hear it now: “you make money from fish making stupid calls like this” – well, against me I think he’s 50/50 with this hand, so it’s a good call pre and on the flop I suppose!
This is fairly standard for the way I run with big pairs: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061534
This was the last hand I played of the session, don’t think I made too many mistakes – perhaps should have folded pre. http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061521
So these are the hands which have left me tilting a little – but I think I lost a fair chunk just through 3-betting my big holdings. I’m just finding that I get called all the time, and then it’s difficult to carry on after the flop: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061557 – btw, even if I flop the ace or king here I don’t think I can go broke on the hand, I almost have to treat it like a 2-bet pot, don’t I?
I think the main area where I’m losing money is with big holdings. In a hand like this http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061581 I know he has a set of jacks, but because I have put in the large 3-bet and had it called I have to go with the hand.
I’m just finding that with ever increasing frequency I’m having big bets called with hands that are looking to catch, and recently, they haven’t had much of a problem catching.
Basically, I have to confess I’m getting a little bored of these stakes – I still have a $2500 roll and I am seriously thinking of just taking a shot at a higher level – if I lose 5 buy ins I think I’ll just withdraw what I have left and call it a day. I just think, I used to enjoy analysing hands and my play, but now it’s all getting a little tedious as the big red number grows. At one point I was absolutely crushing PTY, why?, I was hitting a set 1 in 10 times, I wasn’t getting coolered too much, my big pairs held sometimes, basically I was running statistically okay. Now, well I don’t have a clue what has happened. I get coolered once or twice a session (including set over set 200bbs deep), I get KK vs AA at least once every 15 times I have KK (should be 1 in 42 on 6 max I believe – but those calculations make it sound like a rare occurrence!), I just never seem to flop a set – and the times I do they have absolutely nothing. I still play fairly nitty, but hey, they’ll still call $10 pre wit J7s. what can I say; I’m probably not getting out-played too much, but out-flopped – yer, think that’s the problem.
Ty for reading, suggestions always welcome.
Gl at the tables
Sunday 3 February 2008
poker poker, it's all skill, start with the worse hand and go uphill
The last couple of weeks have been absolutely piss poor for me. I’m not stuck a sick chunk of money – probably only stuck 4 buy-ins, but I feel I should be up by a fair few. I’ve been employing pretty good table selection on PTY and I have been up against some massive action players, but my cards just don’t seem to be holding.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042158 – this particular fish is relatively new to PTY and his unorthodox style of play combined with his absolutely unrivalled luck box...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042136 – ok, so this hand – a good example of me exploiting a fishy player – his min re-raise pre meant that he had a pretty good holding, and therefore, I chose not to re-raise him and take the 3:1 on my money and play a flop – flopped fish-gin, got it all in and then had a brick shoved up my arse by the poker gods.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042149 – some PTY fish however, don’t like to raise their big holdings pre – which causes me more pain...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042226 – yer, I’m aware that the amount people will call off pre with weak holdings is going to make me money in the long-run, but why do they always have to hit? – okies, this hand, post flop is certainly open for discussion – should I go broke here considering the way it plays out?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042251 – again, “lovin up the pre-flop call”
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042238 – again – should I go broke here?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042233 – I flip bad
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042244 - real bad
OK – so sometimes you get into an interesting hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042256 – I know this pot is small – but what do you think of my play on the turn? – not sure what he donk-bet-shoves here...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042272 – the decision to re-raise the river was made difficult as the vil. Was playing 8/8 and the way I had played my hand gave the impression of a weak holding, thus he could have been making a half pot value bet with a house on the river – again, this hand is up for discussion.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042285 – really like my line here – lol – certainly allowed me to get my hand paid off.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042291 – was almost surprised that the river wasn’t a jack here – overall, I like how I played this hand, I was content to get all the money in with TPTK – and think it shows that I can make good reads even in the middle of a downswing.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042306 – alrighty – well I have much history between me and this vil. He’s 3 bet 95% of my pre-flop raises, and so I have no problem re-raising him with AQo here, however, as he’s shown before, he will make massive calls pre-flop – the flop play is therefore based on the assumption of his weak holding, and the call is made because I am pretty sure my overs are good and I have a gutshot - so on the flop I’m 43% to win, not a massive such out – but was made rather amusing by Jack telling me “you’re good” before the pot was shipped – lol
all-in-all, I think my game has become more leaky than before, I am playing too many tables, and also – I’m having a massive problem with hands not holding up – so, in light of this I’m planning to take a shot at 50/1 as I see it as the only way to really focus on improving my game. I don’t plan to play poker forever, so I’m planning to employ some aggressive BRM techniques – allowing myself a 5-6 buy-in shot at the level above, but really putting some time into table selection and only playing 2-4 tables. If I lose my allotted money here I’m going to move back down, but use the same techniques at the 25/50c to make back the 10-12 buy-in before attempting 50/1 again. So – wish me luck...
gl at the tables, ty for reading
ps. If you had taken my advice for the Cheltenham weekend (last weekend) – you’d have seen “Hold-em”, an outside, hand-picked by myself, come second. The second race I told you to back – my chosen horses didn’t race, so you’d have lost nothing there, and in the final race Neptune Collonges came third – so alright if you took him e/w. Have to confess, I didn’t back any of these races as I was out all day, but managed to get a pony down on Franchoek for an even money win! Ty 4 the moneys
Wednesday 23 January 2008
Few puts over the next few days
This is just going to be a quick post coz I gotta get to campus. Okies – just a few recommended bets really –
Today; Musselburgh, 2pm – Mister Jungle to win. Huntingdon, 3:10pm Le Briar Soul
Alright and to the weekend – Cheltenham.
1st race, the 1pm is really just a punt but I think you should back Hold Em, partially because of the name, partially because he’s a bit of an up and coming horse which will make it harder for the bookies to get the price right – so it may be a good value bet.
3rd race, the 2pm – I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say Butler’s Cabin. He’s got a shite-load of stamina and has had wins in the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National last season. And although the ante post odds have fallen away slightly (effectively costing me money) – I still think this horse has easily got what it takes to crush this field. But I should mention Vodka Bleu; having a great season and his recent form is pretty hot, he’s also been over the Cheltenham hurdles more times than I care to remember – so if I was taking two, I’d certainly include Vodka.
4th race. The Letheby and Christopher Chase. I believe this could be a close race between Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. If I had to chose I’d take Collonges I think; he’s not the greatest horse I’ve ever seen, but his recent form is pretty good, I think he’ll be pretty much all or nothing in this race so back to win. If you want a safer bet take Dancer each way – I think that’s probably going to pay you something. Oh yer, if the odds are right, an each way punt on Simon is recommended.
Ps. bit of poker below
GL
Today; Musselburgh, 2pm – Mister Jungle to win. Huntingdon, 3:10pm Le Briar Soul
Alright and to the weekend – Cheltenham.
1st race, the 1pm is really just a punt but I think you should back Hold Em, partially because of the name, partially because he’s a bit of an up and coming horse which will make it harder for the bookies to get the price right – so it may be a good value bet.
3rd race, the 2pm – I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say Butler’s Cabin. He’s got a shite-load of stamina and has had wins in the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National last season. And although the ante post odds have fallen away slightly (effectively costing me money) – I still think this horse has easily got what it takes to crush this field. But I should mention Vodka Bleu; having a great season and his recent form is pretty hot, he’s also been over the Cheltenham hurdles more times than I care to remember – so if I was taking two, I’d certainly include Vodka.
4th race. The Letheby and Christopher Chase. I believe this could be a close race between Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. If I had to chose I’d take Collonges I think; he’s not the greatest horse I’ve ever seen, but his recent form is pretty good, I think he’ll be pretty much all or nothing in this race so back to win. If you want a safer bet take Dancer each way – I think that’s probably going to pay you something. Oh yer, if the odds are right, an each way punt on Simon is recommended.
Ps. bit of poker below
GL
Tuesday 22 January 2008
Broke even yesterday, then made my first $50 - now down $100
Alrighty so just finished a shitty session – couldn’t seem to make any hands, and nothing stood up – few tricky hands though.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980331 – this vil is playing 25/19 and certainly dosen’t look to be an experienced player – so I was happy to make this call out of pos. And I believed he could misplay the hand post flop. Think I have 33% equity when the money goes in – however I hoped he had an over pair or something of the sort which could give me fold equity on such a co-ordinated board and I’d have even more outs.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980354 – the vil is playing 28/4 so it’s not a real supprise he called me pre-flop. I opted to just flat call on the flop, basically coz I wasn’t sure where I was in the hand – he could have flopped two pair or a flush draw, I was hoping he had the flush draw and chose to call. The Ace on the turn basically committed me to the hand and I planned to check-raise him all-in – hoping that this way he would have to call off the remained of his stack with the flush draw – however, he checks behind – and then shoves the river flush card – think it’s a fold – but equally, maybe I underrepresented the strength of my hand and should have called for that reason.
3) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980384 – more I think about this hand the more I think I should call the river bet. The vil was playing 19/13 and I’m getting 4:1 on the river-so I think perhaps a bad fold as he probably has the flush draw at least 1 in 3 times – and the other two times has me absolutely crushed.
In sum I played pretty appallingly, missed just about every flop and just kept getting check-raised – it felt like I was playing on FT again – lol
Will probably give it a bit of a basing over the next few days
Also want to back some ponies to vent some frustration of reaching break-even-for-the-year yesterday and now being $100 down again. Lol – This happened when I last broke even all those months ago in easter!
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980331 – this vil is playing 25/19 and certainly dosen’t look to be an experienced player – so I was happy to make this call out of pos. And I believed he could misplay the hand post flop. Think I have 33% equity when the money goes in – however I hoped he had an over pair or something of the sort which could give me fold equity on such a co-ordinated board and I’d have even more outs.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980354 – the vil is playing 28/4 so it’s not a real supprise he called me pre-flop. I opted to just flat call on the flop, basically coz I wasn’t sure where I was in the hand – he could have flopped two pair or a flush draw, I was hoping he had the flush draw and chose to call. The Ace on the turn basically committed me to the hand and I planned to check-raise him all-in – hoping that this way he would have to call off the remained of his stack with the flush draw – however, he checks behind – and then shoves the river flush card – think it’s a fold – but equally, maybe I underrepresented the strength of my hand and should have called for that reason.
3) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980384 – more I think about this hand the more I think I should call the river bet. The vil was playing 19/13 and I’m getting 4:1 on the river-so I think perhaps a bad fold as he probably has the flush draw at least 1 in 3 times – and the other two times has me absolutely crushed.
In sum I played pretty appallingly, missed just about every flop and just kept getting check-raised – it felt like I was playing on FT again – lol
Will probably give it a bit of a basing over the next few days
Also want to back some ponies to vent some frustration of reaching break-even-for-the-year yesterday and now being $100 down again. Lol – This happened when I last broke even all those months ago in easter!
Friday 11 January 2008
The Big Dance (the Grand National)
For all those who haven't had the chance to read it - my prediction for the Cheltenham Gold Cup race is the post below. This is my early prediction for the Grand National at Aintree:
Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.
All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!
ty for reading, gl at the races
Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.
All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!
ty for reading, gl at the races
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