Final picks

This year’s National has just been a nightmare to handicap. The problem is that trends suggest that a horse carrying 11.0+ stone is unlikely to win. However, this year’s field is so strong compared to other years that there are 20 horses that will be over this mark! And this includes; Cloudy Lane, Bewleys Berry and Butler’s Cabin from my previous tips. However, with half the field expected to be running with lots of weight on their back perhaps we have to bend this slightly. However, it does mean that I’m going to have to add one horse to my tipping.

I’ve been watching McKelvey for a while now and got a bet down on him a while back. Since then he has been a drifter, which is good news for anyone who wants to get a bet down now. I think he’s been overlooked due to the class of the front runners; however, the fact that he’s carrying 11.0 stone may be enough to give him the advantage on the knackering finish straight (the longest of all English race courses). This horse has won over 3 miles and also won over 4 miles, he’s experienced the GN fences on two previous occasions and he’s won a chase of £45k. The only problem with this horse is that he hasn’t run many races this season; only two, and didn’t win either. However, I was speaking to one of my contacts, an owner of several chase horses (who clearly knows more about handicapping than me); he speculated that his trainers may have raced him in slightly unsuitable races with the view to achieving poor results to reduce his handicap for the National. The ground is likely to be good/ good to soft which I think will suite McKelvey well.

Okay, so what do I think you should do?

As much as I hate to say it, Cloudy Lane is the best horse in this race – I believe he’s the most likely horse to win this year’s GN – however, his odds are horrendous, especially when one considers the quality of his opponents. So if you want to bet on him you have to accept that it’s a –ev decision. TBH – if this horse had been proven over 4 miles I’d take the current odds, but he hasn’t, and with his handicap it’s likely that he’s going to find the last 4 furlongs to a mile too tough. So I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say, “don’t get your money on Cloudy Lane.”

So as everything stands, I think Comply or Die fits the bill for a winner. He’s at 10-9 stone – an advantage over all the horses which out-class him, we know he can win over the distance, he’s having a nice season and he’s had time to rest for this event. So Comply or Die to win – try to get him at around 10.0

As I said before, I think McKelvey is a great horse and the odds make this a very nice e/w bet. Try to get him at no less than 18.0 (this will translate to around 4.5 for the place)

Finally, Naunton Brook, providing he makes to the start line is a great place (TBP) bet opportunity. Don’t go below 11.0 on the place though.

Cliff notes:
Comply or Die – win, McKelvey e/w, Naunton Brook TBP

Tricast bets (exact order of three horses), fortune making odds so it’s fun! You’ll only need to get a quid or two down, and if you win you owe me some Dom Perignion: 1) The horses above in that order, 2) Point Barrow, Mckelvey, Comply or Die