I think it’s time to review the Grand National Handicap Chase at Aintree once again. As I mentioned early in January, the only way to beat this race is to get your bets down early. The reason being, the bookies know the demand to place bets on this race, and for that reason the odds in the run up and on the day are atrocious. Imagine trying to beat a poker game with an uncapped 25-30% rake – that’s what you are up against on the day of the race.
Well, I told all those who read my blog to back the, then, favourite, Mr Pointment, and to also take Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. Well, tbh, I didn’t quite get it right this time, the odds on Pointment and Cabin have since improved, but Berry’s have fallen 2.5 points. One must understand that the reason for the latest movements have been due to the recent release of the handicap weights – and the reason that Pointment and Cabin are less favoured by the punters now is due to the weights they will be carrying, however, in my opinion this extra weight will give you better odds on what are two fantastic horses each with a great chance of a win.
The new favourite, Snowy Morning, is also, in my opinion, a well rounded horse, but you must back him soon if you want to get money down. From this point onwards there a few tests in the way of these front runners so little information is to be gained, therefore, by waiting you are just decreasing your profits.
Being the Grand National there is a sense of “anything can happen”, indeed, Silver Birch bent every trend in the race’s history to finish ahead of the field last year, and while I’d say that luck played a big part in his victory, I still think there is money to be made on the outsiders. On betfair you can now back horses to “place” and when backing outsiders this is much better value than taking an each way bet as you get the same returns over all paid places.
If you are looking for some long odds (low-risk big-profits style), then I’d recommend Chelsea Harbour – after his decisive victory over the field at Punchtown on Sunday his odds have fallen away a bit but he’s still at 39:1 on betfair and that’s good value. Vodka Bleu has also been running fairly well at Cheltenham and at 43:1 and he probably has what it takes if all goes to plan on the day – I will take even money action from anyone who wants to bet that odds on these horses won’t fall below 23:1 by the day of the race!
Below is what I’d call the perfect ante-post race card for someone looking to get about a £100 return on the day. (horse/stake)
Snowy Morning/£14, Mr. Pointment/£11, Bewleys Berry/£11, Cloudy Lane/£10, Butlers Cabin/10, Simon/£9, Chelsea Harbour/£4.50, Vodka Bleu/£4 – total exposure £73.50
If anyone has any views or opinions please post them, I would very much like to hear a few other opinions on this race.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment