The Big Dance (the Grand National)

For all those who haven't had the chance to read it - my prediction for the Cheltenham Gold Cup race is the post below. This is my early prediction for the Grand National at Aintree:

Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.

All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!

ty for reading, gl at the races