The Scottish National, much like the Grand National, is a race that works well with trend analysis. In fact over the years trend bettors have had even more luck in this race than in the GN. A 4+ mile hurdle with a large starting field.
Primarily one should start every race with a look at the handicaps. 7 of the last 10 winner have won this race carrying less than 11-2. This year, this particular trend only removes one horse, Halcon Genelardais. Genelardais has an official rating miles above the other horses in this race and has been given a handicap of 11-12, more than a stone more than any other horse in the race. Therefore, unlike the GN where 10 horses were dragging their bellies under the weight, only Genelardais will have this problem in the Scottish National – and thus can be immediately discounted.
The second trend is form, 90% of winners finished in the top 5 on their last outing and 60% in the top three. As such Butlers Cabin, who failed to finish in the GN carrying a substantial handicap, should not be immediately discounted as he only has the pressure of 10-2 this time out especially as he’s proven himself over this distance. However, no horse that has run in the GN has won the Scottish National in the same season so, for this reason, he’s off my list.
Those who fit the trends are, sadly, the top two on the books, Miko de Beuchene and Old Benny. Which is always going to make this race poor value. An e/w bet on either of these horse works out at almost break-even in the event of a place – and breaking even is bad for the ROI!
This is Scotland, and therefore all trends can be cross-referenced with a pretty good forecast for the ground condition. Soft at best and maybe even heavy is guaranteed almost 100%! However, this trend doesn’t split the two front runners at all; both have multiple wins on all sub-fair going. Nonetheless, this does add ev to the favourites: it’s never a good idea to take short odds on a horse whose not proven on the forecast condition.
The old GN trend runs true in the Scottish National, no horse has won this race without having a good record over 3 miles. Again this doesn’t really define between the two market leaders; none the less Old Benny did win the 4m novice chase at Chelts this season, whilst Miko only managed a 2nd in the 3m chase and made little impression on the winner, Ballyfitz. However, trainers do sometimes (rarely) race a horse in less than suitable conditions at Cheltenham to achieve a favourable handicap for the Nationals. So this is by no means a definitive factor.
Finally, I have listened to a couple of comments (from the Irish contingency) regarding the trainer. Ferdy Murphy trained the winners in 2000, 2005 and 2007 – and as such they’re taking Leading Man. I really wouldn’t want to back him to win, but at 5.5 to place on Betfair this might be a good bet. At least you know that F. Murphy will be training horses to win the race, not to improve their future handicaps through a poor showing.
As everything stands, I’m placing an e/w bet on Old Benny, I will take Miko to place if his odds improve, over the last two days he’s drifted whilst Benny has shortened, so it’s not unreasonable to think that this may continue. Finally, I’m going to take Osmosis to place – he’s not really an outsider, more on the outside of the market leaders where value lurks and I think he’ll put in a performance that should merit a place.
Cliff Notes:
Old Benny – e/w
Osmosis - Place
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