GN - my top 6

Okay – well I’ve been looking at the GN form and I’m going to ear-mark 6 horses today which I think need to be watched. And a couple that you should avoid!

I really wanted to avoid tipping the fav in this race. He’s around the 7.0 mark with the bookmakers and obviously this makes it a –ev bet. But you can’t blame the bookies, this horse is on form: he’s won 3 out of 4 races this season and earned his owners £62,000. His GN challenge is a serious one; he hasn’t raced for 35 days. In terms of matching my criteria, he’s won 5 chases over 3 miles, won a chase of £33k (this season), he’s not lost his mount this season and he hasn’t been crushed by the handicappers. However, at 6.0 I want this horse to be perfect, and there are still some issues: he’s never won over 4 miles, worse still he’s never raced over 4 miles, and he’s never had a trip over the GN fences. – so does he have the staying power?

Comply or Die: at 9 years old this horse has 14 chase runs under his belt. This season isn’t going too badly with one win in 4 races and a second place finish. He’s earned his owners £32k so far this season which included a £30k win! However, why I really fancy this horse is because he’s proven his abilities over 4 miles. Although he’s never been over the GN fences I’m happy with backing this springer hard and fast!

Bewleys Berry: I really like this horse. His season hasn’t been great with only a second place achieved out of two races, however, this has meant that his handicap is small (11-0). Okay, so this horse almost fits the bill, but he’s getting a little old imho and he’s never had a chase win of over £3k – but he’s sort of got the Aintree-factor. As I have previously mentioned, some horses run very well on certain courses, and Berry loves Aintree. I really believe that if the ground is good this horse has a good chance of running a great race – whether he has what it takes to be first past the post, I’m not sure – I would not take this horse at less than 15.0.

Snowy Morning: This horse is perhaps a little young to be a GN champion at 8 years. And although he had a good start to the season it did trail off a little towards the end. However, he’s won a chase of £21k, he’s on ok form this season with prize money totalling £34k and he’s had that all-important win over 3 miles. However, he has lost his mount once this season and perhaps isn’t best suited to the GN course.

Butlers Cabin: this horse I tipped on my blog in January. However, since backing him he’s been a disappointment and his odds have drifted accordingly. He’s proven over both 3 and 4 mile distances and has won a £95k chase before. However – this season has been a disappointment and he’s only pulled in £9k for his owners. He’s had 49 days to prepare for this race – will it be enough?

My outsider is Naunton Brook. For a 50/1 shot he’s a pretty decent horse. He really fits the bill tbh. In his 9 years he’s run in 25 chases, won 4 times over 3 miles and once over 4 miles, he also has had experience over the GN fences. This season he’s claimed £52k in prize money and has had 1 win in his six races. His biggest ever chase win is £26k and he’s only ever had one fall. Really, from this I could almost be describing a top 8 horse. However, the reasoning behind his position is his official rating of 140. OR’s are drawn up as a way of comparing horses against one and other and are based not on wins but on which horses they have beaten. Basically, Brook has never faced strong competition – so how will he fare against the field on April 5th.

You have to love the nerve of the bookies during the Grand National – Hedgehunter is now 12 years old, carrying a decent handicap (for some stupid reason) and is priced at 16.0! Betting on Hedgehunter to win the GN is like betting Linford Christie to win the 110m hurdle in Beijing this year. A massive mover in the markets has been King John’s Castle – I noticed him dropping from three figures so I took him at 50/1 and was pleased when I saw him around the 15.0 mark in the bookies – however, examining this horses form, I think 50/1 is a fair bet: Yes he’s had a good season claiming £33k in prize money with 3 second place finished and a first in 4 races – however, he’s never won over 2.5 miles! In my opinion, this horse is going to take the race by storm until the three mile mark and from then on he’ll be lucky to finish let alone place.