The Grand National - picking winner explained

My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0

30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!

I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.

So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))

So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!

To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!

To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).

So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.

Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q