This is just a quick post. Basically, I’m just amazed by how little is known by the experts in regards to the Oxford vs Cambridge University Boat Race this Saturday. Normally this is one of the easiest sporting events to handicap – but this year it seems that the bookies don’t have a clue. However, the punters seem to think they do – in the Betfair market about 85% of the money is going on Oxford!
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
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