Day 1: Mixed feelings!
- 2pm: Supreme Novice Hurdle: Very please with my selections here – “Captain Cee Bee” ran a great race and earned a well deserved victory and “Snap tie” came in third to up my profits in this race to over £50
- 2.35: Arkle Challenge: Well, I think I told everyone what to do with their money here and sure enough “Tidal Bay” won by 12 legnths – he jumped terribly but his speed and stamina made up for his constant mistakes over the hurdles. My victory in this race was, however, short lived – just as I added my £42 profit from this race to my initial profits I realised that I hadn’t actually placed the bet, and as a result had actually made a small loss on “Moon over Miami”! – so it’s not just the poker gods that hate me!
- 3:15: Champion Hurdle: This one hurt me. I had “Osana” to win, “Harchibald” e/w and “Sublimity” e/w. Coming up to the last 150 metres the field was “Osana”, “Katchit”, “Sublimity”, Punjabi – over the line it went; “Katchit”, “Osana”, “Punjabi”, “Sublimity” – a loss of £58! (when it was nearly a win of £21 – grrr)
- Will Hill Chase – I didn’t watch this one as my two ante-post choices, “Battlecry” and “afistfullofdollars “had been pulled and my last hope “Abragante” put in a poor effort – only a £10 loss though.
- The Champion Bumper – well, this was my ‘break even or die trying’ race. I put a bet on Ashkazar just before the race at 2.88 started and I also had Chapoturgeon at 22.0. My horse was leading by two lengths but managed to lose to the second favourite.
So – day one behind us and I’m down £31.97. Just really upset about not placing my second bet (and thinking I had until after the race), and also angry that I chose not to back the horse that went on to win the Cross Country Chase after I had tipped a friend about it and had to listen to his drunken rant about how sick a tip it was. Lol
So – Tomorrow –
Well – the ground is still good to soft and I’m praying it stays that way! So, tbh my choices haven’t changed at all.
- 2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdle – “Forpadydeplasterer” is still my choice here. A great horse who I’m sure can put in a good performance.
- 2:35pm – Sun Alliance Chase – I’d still say that “Silverburn” is a great value e/w choice. But “Tidal Bay” is also running, and with the confidence from todays win driving him on I’d say at 13.0 this is certainly some value, as is the TBP option at 4.1.
- 3:15 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Not a race to take any horses to place. I’m reasonably happy with “Masterminded” and “Voy Por Ustedes” - I know that both “Twist Magic” and “Tamerinbleu” are seeing heaps of action but I’m sticking with my original view. “Masterminded” is perfect for this race; currently on great form with two wins in small fields on ground good to soft. “Voy Por Usterdes” didn’t win his last race but has a great lifetime form of 2-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-3, with a good to soft form of 2-1-1-1-1.
- 4pm – Coral Cup – You have to fancy “Leg Spinner” here. He’s taken down some big fields in the past, likes the ground good to soft, and in my opinion is the horse they all have to beat.
Okies – so yer, only backin the first 4 races – I had long-shot views in the ante-post markets for “Toby Jug” and “Endless Intrigue” but neither have been entered for the race. My only big-money sweat is “Masterminded” – it’s a bit painful to be coming from behind already – but hey, lets hope we can make up our lost ground.
So yer: my top tip for the day is: “Forepadydeplasterer” to win!
Tuesday, 11 March 2008
Saturday, 8 March 2008
Ollie's Picks for days 1 and 2 of the Cheltenham Festival - March 11th and 12th.
Okies – well I’ve actually had a couple of requests for my picks in the Cheltenham Festival. So, before I start I should probably explain why I believe my choices are credible. Firstly – trends – it is important to look at historical trends, especially for Cheltenham – no other National Hunt racecourse has so many repeat winners. There is also a good collection of horses that love Cheltenham, but just can’t get it together on other courses. Needless to say I make sure I have lots of info available to me when searching for trends.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
Wednesday, 5 March 2008
New Game, and here comes Chelts!
Well – poker has been running pretty good recently. I’ve changed my style and I think I’m also running better than before. I’ve been trying to keep to a maximum of 6 well selected tables and I’ve really been trying to open up my game. Instead of folding certain hands in certain positions and raising others I’ve been looking at my opponents stats and basing my pre-flop decisions more closely around that than the strength or weakness of my holding. I know these are all simple concepts, and things that I used to do, but I think I just became carried away with the loose donks on PTY and chose to focus on playing big pots with them at the expense of the rest of my game.
Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!
But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.
Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.
I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!
As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.
This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.
Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.
Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!
But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.
Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.
I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!
As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.
This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.
Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.
Sunday, 2 March 2008
Cheltenham update
To all those who are interested in the Olympics of Horse Racing that is Cheltenham Festival:
I’m currently in the middle of putting together my view for the week. Between the 11th and the 14th of March there will be 25 races – it’s a bitch for the punter to handicap, and it’s also a bitch for the bookies. Although the big races will have so much volume and have been handicapped to the finest degree, it is almost guaranteed that some of the smaller races will be won by relative unknowns running with a shit load of value.
I’m currently working on the form for some of the big races – and fuck me is it tough – there’s such quality out there this year that I’m constantly getting down to 4 potentials and just not knowing where to go from there. But help is at hand – one of my good friends from Cheltenham is going to the pre-race meet to rub shoulders with jockeys and owners – and because he’s from a horse owning family he’s certainly on the inner circle when it comes to his advice. – so hopefully there shall be some good tips going up on this blog.
For now I’m going to give you a couple of outsiders who I think are worth a punt:
- Tuesday 11th, Juvenile Novice Hurdle, “Chapoturgeon”, e/w advisable.
- Wednesday 12th, National Hunt Chase, “Toby Jug”, massive outsider, but I think he’s certainly worth a punt – 55.0 to win in the ante-post markets!
- Friday 14th, Fox Hunters Chase, “Thisthatandtother”, e/w advisable
- Friday 14th, Mares Only Hurdle, “Silver Charmer”, 18.0 TBP (betfair ante-post) are great odds!
And for those who don’t watch racing apart from the Grand National; please listen to me when I implore you to watch the Gold Cup race (Friday, 3:15pm). This is going to be the most exciting race since the 1960s and perhaps the most exciting Gold Cup ever.
“Exotic Dancer” one of the best horses we’ve seen in year will be lining up at 14:1, why? because he’s going to be up against the astonishing talent of “Kuato Star” and “Denman”. “Denman”; an old fashioned chaser, absolutely solid, will crush pretty much any field and has enough stamina to complete a victory lap. He’ll be up against his equal and opposite; “Kuato Star”- a speedster, his victories are always decisive, he has all the flair and arrogance of a world champion boxer crossed with a Russian ballerina and is looking to win his second Cheltenham Gold Cup. This race will be talked about for years, whatever the outcome, so whatever you do – don’t fucking miss it! – I’ll be watching it from the Champagne Bar on the finishing straight! - lol (depending on how my day is going...)
I’m currently in the middle of putting together my view for the week. Between the 11th and the 14th of March there will be 25 races – it’s a bitch for the punter to handicap, and it’s also a bitch for the bookies. Although the big races will have so much volume and have been handicapped to the finest degree, it is almost guaranteed that some of the smaller races will be won by relative unknowns running with a shit load of value.
I’m currently working on the form for some of the big races – and fuck me is it tough – there’s such quality out there this year that I’m constantly getting down to 4 potentials and just not knowing where to go from there. But help is at hand – one of my good friends from Cheltenham is going to the pre-race meet to rub shoulders with jockeys and owners – and because he’s from a horse owning family he’s certainly on the inner circle when it comes to his advice. – so hopefully there shall be some good tips going up on this blog.
For now I’m going to give you a couple of outsiders who I think are worth a punt:
- Tuesday 11th, Juvenile Novice Hurdle, “Chapoturgeon”, e/w advisable.
- Wednesday 12th, National Hunt Chase, “Toby Jug”, massive outsider, but I think he’s certainly worth a punt – 55.0 to win in the ante-post markets!
- Friday 14th, Fox Hunters Chase, “Thisthatandtother”, e/w advisable
- Friday 14th, Mares Only Hurdle, “Silver Charmer”, 18.0 TBP (betfair ante-post) are great odds!
And for those who don’t watch racing apart from the Grand National; please listen to me when I implore you to watch the Gold Cup race (Friday, 3:15pm). This is going to be the most exciting race since the 1960s and perhaps the most exciting Gold Cup ever.
“Exotic Dancer” one of the best horses we’ve seen in year will be lining up at 14:1, why? because he’s going to be up against the astonishing talent of “Kuato Star” and “Denman”. “Denman”; an old fashioned chaser, absolutely solid, will crush pretty much any field and has enough stamina to complete a victory lap. He’ll be up against his equal and opposite; “Kuato Star”- a speedster, his victories are always decisive, he has all the flair and arrogance of a world champion boxer crossed with a Russian ballerina and is looking to win his second Cheltenham Gold Cup. This race will be talked about for years, whatever the outcome, so whatever you do – don’t fucking miss it! – I’ll be watching it from the Champagne Bar on the finishing straight! - lol (depending on how my day is going...)
Tuesday, 26 February 2008
eeek - 6 buy ins in the wrong direction...
So I just played my worst ever session on PTY. I think I got unlucky but also played pretty horrendously towards the end of the session. There’s a few hands which stick out a bit that perhaps I should mention.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173381 – I think this hand is a call - I do hate going broke on AA in an a 2-bet pot – but when he shoves here I just don’t think I can fold. The vil is playing 25/8 which makes it less likely that he’s raising pps from the blinds – but I think his shove looks like a draw.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173421 – this hand I hate myself for. Vil is 22/16 so I know the guy’s a solid player. On the flop he tanks and then calls – I know that looks dodgy, and either means he’s flushing or he’s got a set. The deuce on the turn let’s me know that it’s unlikely he had the deuce set and the JJJ set is almost out of the question – so it’s 4s or the flush draw – when he shoves on me after the turn it does put me in a bit of a situation – although I’m getting 3:1 on the call I’m thinking he has a house almost enough of the time to merit a fold – but I was tilting so I called... 100% shitty play by me!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173451 – I think this hand is rather marginal – the donkey is playing 50/0 and has recently made an expert call on two streets with an under pair (that was actually good) against me. If he raises the turn I can fold this hand – but as played I’m not sure how I get away from it.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173783 – this is another pot that I knew I wasn’t winning on the turn. And I could have told you what that king did to his hand. Bit of a cooler really – having a fair bit of trouble with fish and their gutshots atm.
Other than these hands there were a few others where I continuously failed to hold up. In fact the only stack I took was my AK vs QQ. Think this was a mixture of running bad and playing bad – I should have quit when I was showing a $125 loss, however, I don’t think I was playing really terribly until I hit the $200 loss – even then, the biggest hand I lost was when I was gutshotted. Overall, down $268 for the week which means a little more time before I move up...
I think my gambling is becoming a little reckless atm. I don’t think I am putting 100% of the effort I should be putting into the game and I keep taking risks, such as betting turns where a check may be more +ev. Perhaps I need to get over this before I go back to the game.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173381 – I think this hand is a call - I do hate going broke on AA in an a 2-bet pot – but when he shoves here I just don’t think I can fold. The vil is playing 25/8 which makes it less likely that he’s raising pps from the blinds – but I think his shove looks like a draw.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173421 – this hand I hate myself for. Vil is 22/16 so I know the guy’s a solid player. On the flop he tanks and then calls – I know that looks dodgy, and either means he’s flushing or he’s got a set. The deuce on the turn let’s me know that it’s unlikely he had the deuce set and the JJJ set is almost out of the question – so it’s 4s or the flush draw – when he shoves on me after the turn it does put me in a bit of a situation – although I’m getting 3:1 on the call I’m thinking he has a house almost enough of the time to merit a fold – but I was tilting so I called... 100% shitty play by me!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173451 – I think this hand is rather marginal – the donkey is playing 50/0 and has recently made an expert call on two streets with an under pair (that was actually good) against me. If he raises the turn I can fold this hand – but as played I’m not sure how I get away from it.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173783 – this is another pot that I knew I wasn’t winning on the turn. And I could have told you what that king did to his hand. Bit of a cooler really – having a fair bit of trouble with fish and their gutshots atm.
Other than these hands there were a few others where I continuously failed to hold up. In fact the only stack I took was my AK vs QQ. Think this was a mixture of running bad and playing bad – I should have quit when I was showing a $125 loss, however, I don’t think I was playing really terribly until I hit the $200 loss – even then, the biggest hand I lost was when I was gutshotted. Overall, down $268 for the week which means a little more time before I move up...
I think my gambling is becoming a little reckless atm. I don’t think I am putting 100% of the effort I should be putting into the game and I keep taking risks, such as betting turns where a check may be more +ev. Perhaps I need to get over this before I go back to the game.
Monday, 25 February 2008
weekend of racing
Quick report on the weekend:
1st race I had was the 14:40 at Kempton. I had reasonably good advice to take the fav in this race, however after leading the whole race by several lengths he managed to fall at the penultimate hurdle and it was all over as Walsh rode Oslot, the 11:1 outsider to his first Kempton victory.
2nd race. This was my main race for the day, I had several horses backed here and I have to say it went a bit Pete Tong for me. My top tip (from the post below) was Ungaro who managed about a furlong before falling at the 2nd fence. Simon ran well, but as was suspected, his age, lack of current form and handicap weight let him down and he didn’t manage a place. The top tipped outsiders also showed some strength and I believe I managed to get a 3rd place out of one of my long shots – I can’t remember which coz I had him backed to win so didn’t really give a shit. After a fairly relaxed race Walsh managed to bring Gungadu home in what could have been an exciting victory, if I had him backed. In sum; pretty shit for me.
3rd race. Well, this was meant to be the easiest victory for the GN favourite Snowy Morning. Against a field of the elderly and the inexperienced his victory was meant to be decisive. However, he ran poorly and finished 3rd, which was a hell of a shame as I had £75 on him to win at 1.38. According to the jockey he may have a respiratory problem, which is probably why the ante post favourite has fallen from being 11.5 on betfair to 24.0for the National. However, as his trainers claim that he’s fine and that he will definitely run in the National – perhaps, amongst this negative market speculation, it is time to get some more money down on him...
One notable development at Fairyhouse was Hedgehunters performance: perhaps he’s a good place bet for the National...
1st race I had was the 14:40 at Kempton. I had reasonably good advice to take the fav in this race, however after leading the whole race by several lengths he managed to fall at the penultimate hurdle and it was all over as Walsh rode Oslot, the 11:1 outsider to his first Kempton victory.
2nd race. This was my main race for the day, I had several horses backed here and I have to say it went a bit Pete Tong for me. My top tip (from the post below) was Ungaro who managed about a furlong before falling at the 2nd fence. Simon ran well, but as was suspected, his age, lack of current form and handicap weight let him down and he didn’t manage a place. The top tipped outsiders also showed some strength and I believe I managed to get a 3rd place out of one of my long shots – I can’t remember which coz I had him backed to win so didn’t really give a shit. After a fairly relaxed race Walsh managed to bring Gungadu home in what could have been an exciting victory, if I had him backed. In sum; pretty shit for me.
3rd race. Well, this was meant to be the easiest victory for the GN favourite Snowy Morning. Against a field of the elderly and the inexperienced his victory was meant to be decisive. However, he ran poorly and finished 3rd, which was a hell of a shame as I had £75 on him to win at 1.38. According to the jockey he may have a respiratory problem, which is probably why the ante post favourite has fallen from being 11.5 on betfair to 24.0for the National. However, as his trainers claim that he’s fine and that he will definitely run in the National – perhaps, amongst this negative market speculation, it is time to get some more money down on him...
One notable development at Fairyhouse was Hedgehunters performance: perhaps he’s a good place bet for the National...
Wednesday, 20 February 2008
Kempton and Fairyhouse
Finally – a race that’s worth watching. This is the only big test remaining before Gold Cup week starts in Cheltenham. The 23rd Feb at Kempton and the Racing Post Handicap Chase (3:15). Won last year by Simon who went on to become a front runner for the National but failed to succeed falling six fences from home. This year Simon is 3rd favourite, but I still don’t think I’ll be backing him. He has really failed to live up to expectations since this race last year and for this reason I think his odds represent a sense of nostalgia rather than any his ability.
Simon’s odds, nonetheless, do reflect the fact his credentials match the trends: previous winners have performed well on the Kempton track and almost all winners have had previous successes at this distance (3m). However, of the previous nine winners, eight have won their last outings – Simon did not. In addition to this Simon clearly favours soft ground, and the conditions are expected to be fair. In my opinion, horses who favour soft, and have achieved notable victories on such ground, find it much more difficult to convert their abilities to a fairer surface than the competition. On this note, this factor is holding Kuato Star favourite over Denman in the Chelts Gold Cup.
The favourite, Gunadu, ran very well at Sandown earlier this month with Jockey Sam Thomas. However, his recent form with R. Walsh hasn’t been great, and perhaps this should be taken into account before backing him too hard. Nonetheless I think I’d give this horse a 7:2 shot at winning this race – so if you don’t mind anteposting on betfair I think the value is there. His success over this distance is of notoriety; however a win a Kempton is clearly missing from his criteria.
Ungaro is second on the books and is a strong second favourite. He’s a good runner, and certain to finish, however he hasn’t been first across the line since December ’06 – nonetheless – that was at Kempton. I really believe the odds on this particular horse are swayed by his form on this course, because he’s just not been able to bring it home for his syndicate recently. But, he’s certainly generating bit of action and his second place finish on good ground in Doncaster late January would lead one to believe that he could bring home this trophy.
There’s no run-away favourite in this race as Exotic Dancer pulled out a few days prior; so it’s certainly a race for the speculators. I also think the fact it’s fairly open means that a couple of outsider bets may prove fruitful. Bagan, for example, currently at 13:1 on betfair is a great antepost bet. A win at the Warwick course in the chase there earlier this month and a very respectable season altogether means that although this horse might not be the same calibre of some of the front runners the odds are still very much worth a £5 punt – I’ve already got mine down (at 17:1). Only notable disadvantage is that he prefers good to soft.
Wee Robbie is the biggest mover in the market, whilst writing this I tried to get a punt down on him and had to alter my odds for half the bet to process on betfair. It is recommended that you back him e/w, but hey, I’ve got him to win in the antepost markets. Is this a bit of a market bubble or could backing him be profitable?
Finally, if you want real value for money get a couple of quid on Herecomesstanley - at 45:1 on betfair he seems like a real outsider but has performed well at Kempton in the past and has notched up a fair few small victories this season. So if you want a real punt – you got one here!
In sum: if you want a good shot at some cash back Gunadu or Ungaro – of the two I’d probably take Ungaro – I feel the odds are fairer and more reflective of the fact that both of these horse have been thrown into the breach created by Dancers’ exit.
*****************
This weekend’s racing also has a feature or two in Ireland. I’d certainly not call myself knowledgeable of Irish race courses – I’d find it hard pointing to some of them on a map. However, I have a couple of views for Fairyhouse in the Emerald Isle. The “At the Races Bobbyjo Chase” (4.20) has one very notable runner: Snowy Morning. Snowy is currently holding the number one spot in the Grand National – one should note that only 4 of the last 28 National winners have been favourites, nonetheless, this is a very capable horse that is almost sure to win against the field. Bet him to win!
If you want to add to your winning ticket I recommend backing Chelsea Harbour to place. He’s been running well and is currently climbing up the ante-post markets for the National. This will certainly be a test for him, and if he’s successful, you can be sure that all those who have got their money on him for Aintree will be laughing as the punters scramble for his decreasing odds.
Best of luck over the weekend!
Simon’s odds, nonetheless, do reflect the fact his credentials match the trends: previous winners have performed well on the Kempton track and almost all winners have had previous successes at this distance (3m). However, of the previous nine winners, eight have won their last outings – Simon did not. In addition to this Simon clearly favours soft ground, and the conditions are expected to be fair. In my opinion, horses who favour soft, and have achieved notable victories on such ground, find it much more difficult to convert their abilities to a fairer surface than the competition. On this note, this factor is holding Kuato Star favourite over Denman in the Chelts Gold Cup.
The favourite, Gunadu, ran very well at Sandown earlier this month with Jockey Sam Thomas. However, his recent form with R. Walsh hasn’t been great, and perhaps this should be taken into account before backing him too hard. Nonetheless I think I’d give this horse a 7:2 shot at winning this race – so if you don’t mind anteposting on betfair I think the value is there. His success over this distance is of notoriety; however a win a Kempton is clearly missing from his criteria.
Ungaro is second on the books and is a strong second favourite. He’s a good runner, and certain to finish, however he hasn’t been first across the line since December ’06 – nonetheless – that was at Kempton. I really believe the odds on this particular horse are swayed by his form on this course, because he’s just not been able to bring it home for his syndicate recently. But, he’s certainly generating bit of action and his second place finish on good ground in Doncaster late January would lead one to believe that he could bring home this trophy.
There’s no run-away favourite in this race as Exotic Dancer pulled out a few days prior; so it’s certainly a race for the speculators. I also think the fact it’s fairly open means that a couple of outsider bets may prove fruitful. Bagan, for example, currently at 13:1 on betfair is a great antepost bet. A win at the Warwick course in the chase there earlier this month and a very respectable season altogether means that although this horse might not be the same calibre of some of the front runners the odds are still very much worth a £5 punt – I’ve already got mine down (at 17:1). Only notable disadvantage is that he prefers good to soft.
Wee Robbie is the biggest mover in the market, whilst writing this I tried to get a punt down on him and had to alter my odds for half the bet to process on betfair. It is recommended that you back him e/w, but hey, I’ve got him to win in the antepost markets. Is this a bit of a market bubble or could backing him be profitable?
Finally, if you want real value for money get a couple of quid on Herecomesstanley - at 45:1 on betfair he seems like a real outsider but has performed well at Kempton in the past and has notched up a fair few small victories this season. So if you want a real punt – you got one here!
In sum: if you want a good shot at some cash back Gunadu or Ungaro – of the two I’d probably take Ungaro – I feel the odds are fairer and more reflective of the fact that both of these horse have been thrown into the breach created by Dancers’ exit.
*****************
This weekend’s racing also has a feature or two in Ireland. I’d certainly not call myself knowledgeable of Irish race courses – I’d find it hard pointing to some of them on a map. However, I have a couple of views for Fairyhouse in the Emerald Isle. The “At the Races Bobbyjo Chase” (4.20) has one very notable runner: Snowy Morning. Snowy is currently holding the number one spot in the Grand National – one should note that only 4 of the last 28 National winners have been favourites, nonetheless, this is a very capable horse that is almost sure to win against the field. Bet him to win!
If you want to add to your winning ticket I recommend backing Chelsea Harbour to place. He’s been running well and is currently climbing up the ante-post markets for the National. This will certainly be a test for him, and if he’s successful, you can be sure that all those who have got their money on him for Aintree will be laughing as the punters scramble for his decreasing odds.
Best of luck over the weekend!
Tuesday, 19 February 2008
running hot!
Well – it seems that my friend used up my whole luck box and took out a luck loan which is currently charging very high interest. I played a 1 hour session today and successfully lost 3 buy-ins.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128539 – well, I thought I should be ahead against this 50 vpip moron and thought nothing about calling his shove – sadely, the contence ofmy luck box being empty meant I got the cash in 4:1 behind.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128594 – next hand I played I managed to up it to being an 8:1 dog.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128548 – 4:1 to win, again – this time he pretty much spelled out his hand by the fact he was playing 40/5 and chose to use the multiple min raise policy. (44:1 to have your KK run into AA – sure it is)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128561 – well on the 88th time I had KK in the 1 hour session – would you believe it... lol. Nope – I had KK 7 times, and 2 of them I was up against... you guessed it... in fact – in the 82 times I have had KK since January I have run into AA 5 times, and lost to QQ (AIP) twice. In the words of Ged – “I run shit hot!”
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128582 – in fact, this was the only big hand I managed to win. And this kinda played itself...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128586 – I love this hand, the way I played it was pretty damn good – but his expert read on the dealer gave him a massive edge. Hmmm – I wonder how many times I have lost when I have someone dead to three outs...
What I loved most about this day time session is that after every time I got stacked the vil left within about 3 hands – so please, please, please – if you stack any of these people – sit out immediately and berate them for a few mins.
Anyways – that’s the end of my rant – I’m now going to focus on my degree for a few hours. But I’ll probably play an evening session – let’s see if I can get a little luckier then...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128539 – well, I thought I should be ahead against this 50 vpip moron and thought nothing about calling his shove – sadely, the contence ofmy luck box being empty meant I got the cash in 4:1 behind.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128594 – next hand I played I managed to up it to being an 8:1 dog.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128548 – 4:1 to win, again – this time he pretty much spelled out his hand by the fact he was playing 40/5 and chose to use the multiple min raise policy. (44:1 to have your KK run into AA – sure it is)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128561 – well on the 88th time I had KK in the 1 hour session – would you believe it... lol. Nope – I had KK 7 times, and 2 of them I was up against... you guessed it... in fact – in the 82 times I have had KK since January I have run into AA 5 times, and lost to QQ (AIP) twice. In the words of Ged – “I run shit hot!”
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128582 – in fact, this was the only big hand I managed to win. And this kinda played itself...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128586 – I love this hand, the way I played it was pretty damn good – but his expert read on the dealer gave him a massive edge. Hmmm – I wonder how many times I have lost when I have someone dead to three outs...
What I loved most about this day time session is that after every time I got stacked the vil left within about 3 hands – so please, please, please – if you stack any of these people – sit out immediately and berate them for a few mins.
Anyways – that’s the end of my rant – I’m now going to focus on my degree for a few hours. But I’ll probably play an evening session – let’s see if I can get a little luckier then...
As an after thought I decided to have a look at how many times I have had KK vs AA. I have run KK into AA 14 times over the last 75,000 hands on PTY – this means it happens every 24.5 times I have KK. Including other sites I have a sample of 115,000 hands and it has happened 18 times – roughly 1 in 28 times I have KK. Now obviously, it should statistically happen 1 in 44 times (a player will be dealt AA every 220 hands, and so with 5 other players at the table...) Basically, does this mean I run bad? – discuss... lol
Friday, 15 February 2008
$10/$20 is where the fish are swimming!
$10/$20 trip report
Yer – decided to take Kader’s advice and move up to where the respect my raises – there were no $25/$50 tables runningso had to make do with $10/$20.
I decided to fain drunkenness in order to beat the game:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105278 – well this hand may look fishy to those who aren’t regs on PTY, however, those who are understand that being dead to 4 outs is in no way a bad spot to get your money in. Ship the $1400 pot to the Prof!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105275 – when you realise you have no showdown value it’s probably a good idea to shove for pot in order to win. Many people are scared to make this move because of the high variance, but I recon it works about 12% of the time.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105279 – in this hand we see another technique – it’s called the river value min raise – it’s a difficult move to pull off without a table to players vying for your chips.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105282 – AK is very much a drawing hand, and for this reason it must be played to the river sometimes in order to draw to a pair – however, if you fail to make a pair you should be looking to fold or shove – it’s fairly neutral.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105285 – with top pair no kicker you should be looking most players up – esp. this vil, mainly because he’s called Haki – which has connotations with Tony the Hitman Hakki.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105284 – at this level you must remember the pros feed on weakness – therefore, in order to avoid being sharked – don’t show any weakness. Not betting all three streets with bottom pair is a leak in most people’s games.
Okies – so there you have it – ProfPOWER made $985 in 44 hands – which, my friends, is a pretty good win rate.
GL at the tables
(disclaimer: may not have been Ollie Power playing – but the advice clearly came from a pro)
Yer – decided to take Kader’s advice and move up to where the respect my raises – there were no $25/$50 tables runningso had to make do with $10/$20.
I decided to fain drunkenness in order to beat the game:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105278 – well this hand may look fishy to those who aren’t regs on PTY, however, those who are understand that being dead to 4 outs is in no way a bad spot to get your money in. Ship the $1400 pot to the Prof!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105275 – when you realise you have no showdown value it’s probably a good idea to shove for pot in order to win. Many people are scared to make this move because of the high variance, but I recon it works about 12% of the time.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105279 – in this hand we see another technique – it’s called the river value min raise – it’s a difficult move to pull off without a table to players vying for your chips.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105282 – AK is very much a drawing hand, and for this reason it must be played to the river sometimes in order to draw to a pair – however, if you fail to make a pair you should be looking to fold or shove – it’s fairly neutral.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105285 – with top pair no kicker you should be looking most players up – esp. this vil, mainly because he’s called Haki – which has connotations with Tony the Hitman Hakki.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105284 – at this level you must remember the pros feed on weakness – therefore, in order to avoid being sharked – don’t show any weakness. Not betting all three streets with bottom pair is a leak in most people’s games.
Okies – so there you have it – ProfPOWER made $985 in 44 hands – which, my friends, is a pretty good win rate.
GL at the tables
(disclaimer: may not have been Ollie Power playing – but the advice clearly came from a pro)
Friday, 8 February 2008
Grand National '08 revisited - (poker post from 7th Feb below)
I think it’s time to review the Grand National Handicap Chase at Aintree once again. As I mentioned early in January, the only way to beat this race is to get your bets down early. The reason being, the bookies know the demand to place bets on this race, and for that reason the odds in the run up and on the day are atrocious. Imagine trying to beat a poker game with an uncapped 25-30% rake – that’s what you are up against on the day of the race.
Well, I told all those who read my blog to back the, then, favourite, Mr Pointment, and to also take Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. Well, tbh, I didn’t quite get it right this time, the odds on Pointment and Cabin have since improved, but Berry’s have fallen 2.5 points. One must understand that the reason for the latest movements have been due to the recent release of the handicap weights – and the reason that Pointment and Cabin are less favoured by the punters now is due to the weights they will be carrying, however, in my opinion this extra weight will give you better odds on what are two fantastic horses each with a great chance of a win.
The new favourite, Snowy Morning, is also, in my opinion, a well rounded horse, but you must back him soon if you want to get money down. From this point onwards there a few tests in the way of these front runners so little information is to be gained, therefore, by waiting you are just decreasing your profits.
Being the Grand National there is a sense of “anything can happen”, indeed, Silver Birch bent every trend in the race’s history to finish ahead of the field last year, and while I’d say that luck played a big part in his victory, I still think there is money to be made on the outsiders. On betfair you can now back horses to “place” and when backing outsiders this is much better value than taking an each way bet as you get the same returns over all paid places.
If you are looking for some long odds (low-risk big-profits style), then I’d recommend Chelsea Harbour – after his decisive victory over the field at Punchtown on Sunday his odds have fallen away a bit but he’s still at 39:1 on betfair and that’s good value. Vodka Bleu has also been running fairly well at Cheltenham and at 43:1 and he probably has what it takes if all goes to plan on the day – I will take even money action from anyone who wants to bet that odds on these horses won’t fall below 23:1 by the day of the race!
Below is what I’d call the perfect ante-post race card for someone looking to get about a £100 return on the day. (horse/stake)
Snowy Morning/£14, Mr. Pointment/£11, Bewleys Berry/£11, Cloudy Lane/£10, Butlers Cabin/10, Simon/£9, Chelsea Harbour/£4.50, Vodka Bleu/£4 – total exposure £73.50
If anyone has any views or opinions please post them, I would very much like to hear a few other opinions on this race.
Well, I told all those who read my blog to back the, then, favourite, Mr Pointment, and to also take Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. Well, tbh, I didn’t quite get it right this time, the odds on Pointment and Cabin have since improved, but Berry’s have fallen 2.5 points. One must understand that the reason for the latest movements have been due to the recent release of the handicap weights – and the reason that Pointment and Cabin are less favoured by the punters now is due to the weights they will be carrying, however, in my opinion this extra weight will give you better odds on what are two fantastic horses each with a great chance of a win.
The new favourite, Snowy Morning, is also, in my opinion, a well rounded horse, but you must back him soon if you want to get money down. From this point onwards there a few tests in the way of these front runners so little information is to be gained, therefore, by waiting you are just decreasing your profits.
Being the Grand National there is a sense of “anything can happen”, indeed, Silver Birch bent every trend in the race’s history to finish ahead of the field last year, and while I’d say that luck played a big part in his victory, I still think there is money to be made on the outsiders. On betfair you can now back horses to “place” and when backing outsiders this is much better value than taking an each way bet as you get the same returns over all paid places.
If you are looking for some long odds (low-risk big-profits style), then I’d recommend Chelsea Harbour – after his decisive victory over the field at Punchtown on Sunday his odds have fallen away a bit but he’s still at 39:1 on betfair and that’s good value. Vodka Bleu has also been running fairly well at Cheltenham and at 43:1 and he probably has what it takes if all goes to plan on the day – I will take even money action from anyone who wants to bet that odds on these horses won’t fall below 23:1 by the day of the race!
Below is what I’d call the perfect ante-post race card for someone looking to get about a £100 return on the day. (horse/stake)
Snowy Morning/£14, Mr. Pointment/£11, Bewleys Berry/£11, Cloudy Lane/£10, Butlers Cabin/10, Simon/£9, Chelsea Harbour/£4.50, Vodka Bleu/£4 – total exposure £73.50
If anyone has any views or opinions please post them, I would very much like to hear a few other opinions on this race.
Thursday, 7 February 2008
"wtf, nh sir... wp.... love how you disguised it by calling off half you stack with it pre..."
Just finished another sub 5 buy-ins session. Cannot believe how bad I run. Or perhaps, I just won’t accept how bad I play.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061546 – right, so my bad, I presumed that to call 10% of your stack pre you had to have a holding that wouldn’t connect with any part of that flop... how wrong was i?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061540 – I can almost hear it now: “you make money from fish making stupid calls like this” – well, against me I think he’s 50/50 with this hand, so it’s a good call pre and on the flop I suppose!
This is fairly standard for the way I run with big pairs: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061534
This was the last hand I played of the session, don’t think I made too many mistakes – perhaps should have folded pre. http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061521
So these are the hands which have left me tilting a little – but I think I lost a fair chunk just through 3-betting my big holdings. I’m just finding that I get called all the time, and then it’s difficult to carry on after the flop: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061557 – btw, even if I flop the ace or king here I don’t think I can go broke on the hand, I almost have to treat it like a 2-bet pot, don’t I?
I think the main area where I’m losing money is with big holdings. In a hand like this http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061581 I know he has a set of jacks, but because I have put in the large 3-bet and had it called I have to go with the hand.
I’m just finding that with ever increasing frequency I’m having big bets called with hands that are looking to catch, and recently, they haven’t had much of a problem catching.
Basically, I have to confess I’m getting a little bored of these stakes – I still have a $2500 roll and I am seriously thinking of just taking a shot at a higher level – if I lose 5 buy ins I think I’ll just withdraw what I have left and call it a day. I just think, I used to enjoy analysing hands and my play, but now it’s all getting a little tedious as the big red number grows. At one point I was absolutely crushing PTY, why?, I was hitting a set 1 in 10 times, I wasn’t getting coolered too much, my big pairs held sometimes, basically I was running statistically okay. Now, well I don’t have a clue what has happened. I get coolered once or twice a session (including set over set 200bbs deep), I get KK vs AA at least once every 15 times I have KK (should be 1 in 42 on 6 max I believe – but those calculations make it sound like a rare occurrence!), I just never seem to flop a set – and the times I do they have absolutely nothing. I still play fairly nitty, but hey, they’ll still call $10 pre wit J7s. what can I say; I’m probably not getting out-played too much, but out-flopped – yer, think that’s the problem.
Ty for reading, suggestions always welcome.
Gl at the tables
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061546 – right, so my bad, I presumed that to call 10% of your stack pre you had to have a holding that wouldn’t connect with any part of that flop... how wrong was i?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061540 – I can almost hear it now: “you make money from fish making stupid calls like this” – well, against me I think he’s 50/50 with this hand, so it’s a good call pre and on the flop I suppose!
This is fairly standard for the way I run with big pairs: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061534
This was the last hand I played of the session, don’t think I made too many mistakes – perhaps should have folded pre. http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061521
So these are the hands which have left me tilting a little – but I think I lost a fair chunk just through 3-betting my big holdings. I’m just finding that I get called all the time, and then it’s difficult to carry on after the flop: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061557 – btw, even if I flop the ace or king here I don’t think I can go broke on the hand, I almost have to treat it like a 2-bet pot, don’t I?
I think the main area where I’m losing money is with big holdings. In a hand like this http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061581 I know he has a set of jacks, but because I have put in the large 3-bet and had it called I have to go with the hand.
I’m just finding that with ever increasing frequency I’m having big bets called with hands that are looking to catch, and recently, they haven’t had much of a problem catching.
Basically, I have to confess I’m getting a little bored of these stakes – I still have a $2500 roll and I am seriously thinking of just taking a shot at a higher level – if I lose 5 buy ins I think I’ll just withdraw what I have left and call it a day. I just think, I used to enjoy analysing hands and my play, but now it’s all getting a little tedious as the big red number grows. At one point I was absolutely crushing PTY, why?, I was hitting a set 1 in 10 times, I wasn’t getting coolered too much, my big pairs held sometimes, basically I was running statistically okay. Now, well I don’t have a clue what has happened. I get coolered once or twice a session (including set over set 200bbs deep), I get KK vs AA at least once every 15 times I have KK (should be 1 in 42 on 6 max I believe – but those calculations make it sound like a rare occurrence!), I just never seem to flop a set – and the times I do they have absolutely nothing. I still play fairly nitty, but hey, they’ll still call $10 pre wit J7s. what can I say; I’m probably not getting out-played too much, but out-flopped – yer, think that’s the problem.
Ty for reading, suggestions always welcome.
Gl at the tables
Sunday, 3 February 2008
poker poker, it's all skill, start with the worse hand and go uphill
The last couple of weeks have been absolutely piss poor for me. I’m not stuck a sick chunk of money – probably only stuck 4 buy-ins, but I feel I should be up by a fair few. I’ve been employing pretty good table selection on PTY and I have been up against some massive action players, but my cards just don’t seem to be holding.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042158 – this particular fish is relatively new to PTY and his unorthodox style of play combined with his absolutely unrivalled luck box...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042136 – ok, so this hand – a good example of me exploiting a fishy player – his min re-raise pre meant that he had a pretty good holding, and therefore, I chose not to re-raise him and take the 3:1 on my money and play a flop – flopped fish-gin, got it all in and then had a brick shoved up my arse by the poker gods.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042149 – some PTY fish however, don’t like to raise their big holdings pre – which causes me more pain...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042226 – yer, I’m aware that the amount people will call off pre with weak holdings is going to make me money in the long-run, but why do they always have to hit? – okies, this hand, post flop is certainly open for discussion – should I go broke here considering the way it plays out?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042251 – again, “lovin up the pre-flop call”
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042238 – again – should I go broke here?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042233 – I flip bad
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042244 - real bad
OK – so sometimes you get into an interesting hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042256 – I know this pot is small – but what do you think of my play on the turn? – not sure what he donk-bet-shoves here...
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042272 – the decision to re-raise the river was made difficult as the vil. Was playing 8/8 and the way I had played my hand gave the impression of a weak holding, thus he could have been making a half pot value bet with a house on the river – again, this hand is up for discussion.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042285 – really like my line here – lol – certainly allowed me to get my hand paid off.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042291 – was almost surprised that the river wasn’t a jack here – overall, I like how I played this hand, I was content to get all the money in with TPTK – and think it shows that I can make good reads even in the middle of a downswing.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042306 – alrighty – well I have much history between me and this vil. He’s 3 bet 95% of my pre-flop raises, and so I have no problem re-raising him with AQo here, however, as he’s shown before, he will make massive calls pre-flop – the flop play is therefore based on the assumption of his weak holding, and the call is made because I am pretty sure my overs are good and I have a gutshot - so on the flop I’m 43% to win, not a massive such out – but was made rather amusing by Jack telling me “you’re good” before the pot was shipped – lol
all-in-all, I think my game has become more leaky than before, I am playing too many tables, and also – I’m having a massive problem with hands not holding up – so, in light of this I’m planning to take a shot at 50/1 as I see it as the only way to really focus on improving my game. I don’t plan to play poker forever, so I’m planning to employ some aggressive BRM techniques – allowing myself a 5-6 buy-in shot at the level above, but really putting some time into table selection and only playing 2-4 tables. If I lose my allotted money here I’m going to move back down, but use the same techniques at the 25/50c to make back the 10-12 buy-in before attempting 50/1 again. So – wish me luck...
gl at the tables, ty for reading
ps. If you had taken my advice for the Cheltenham weekend (last weekend) – you’d have seen “Hold-em”, an outside, hand-picked by myself, come second. The second race I told you to back – my chosen horses didn’t race, so you’d have lost nothing there, and in the final race Neptune Collonges came third – so alright if you took him e/w. Have to confess, I didn’t back any of these races as I was out all day, but managed to get a pony down on Franchoek for an even money win! Ty 4 the moneys
Wednesday, 23 January 2008
Few puts over the next few days
This is just going to be a quick post coz I gotta get to campus. Okies – just a few recommended bets really –
Today; Musselburgh, 2pm – Mister Jungle to win. Huntingdon, 3:10pm Le Briar Soul
Alright and to the weekend – Cheltenham.
1st race, the 1pm is really just a punt but I think you should back Hold Em, partially because of the name, partially because he’s a bit of an up and coming horse which will make it harder for the bookies to get the price right – so it may be a good value bet.
3rd race, the 2pm – I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say Butler’s Cabin. He’s got a shite-load of stamina and has had wins in the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National last season. And although the ante post odds have fallen away slightly (effectively costing me money) – I still think this horse has easily got what it takes to crush this field. But I should mention Vodka Bleu; having a great season and his recent form is pretty hot, he’s also been over the Cheltenham hurdles more times than I care to remember – so if I was taking two, I’d certainly include Vodka.
4th race. The Letheby and Christopher Chase. I believe this could be a close race between Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. If I had to chose I’d take Collonges I think; he’s not the greatest horse I’ve ever seen, but his recent form is pretty good, I think he’ll be pretty much all or nothing in this race so back to win. If you want a safer bet take Dancer each way – I think that’s probably going to pay you something. Oh yer, if the odds are right, an each way punt on Simon is recommended.
Ps. bit of poker below
GL
Today; Musselburgh, 2pm – Mister Jungle to win. Huntingdon, 3:10pm Le Briar Soul
Alright and to the weekend – Cheltenham.
1st race, the 1pm is really just a punt but I think you should back Hold Em, partially because of the name, partially because he’s a bit of an up and coming horse which will make it harder for the bookies to get the price right – so it may be a good value bet.
3rd race, the 2pm – I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say Butler’s Cabin. He’s got a shite-load of stamina and has had wins in the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National last season. And although the ante post odds have fallen away slightly (effectively costing me money) – I still think this horse has easily got what it takes to crush this field. But I should mention Vodka Bleu; having a great season and his recent form is pretty hot, he’s also been over the Cheltenham hurdles more times than I care to remember – so if I was taking two, I’d certainly include Vodka.
4th race. The Letheby and Christopher Chase. I believe this could be a close race between Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. If I had to chose I’d take Collonges I think; he’s not the greatest horse I’ve ever seen, but his recent form is pretty good, I think he’ll be pretty much all or nothing in this race so back to win. If you want a safer bet take Dancer each way – I think that’s probably going to pay you something. Oh yer, if the odds are right, an each way punt on Simon is recommended.
Ps. bit of poker below
GL
Tuesday, 22 January 2008
Broke even yesterday, then made my first $50 - now down $100
Alrighty so just finished a shitty session – couldn’t seem to make any hands, and nothing stood up – few tricky hands though.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980331 – this vil is playing 25/19 and certainly dosen’t look to be an experienced player – so I was happy to make this call out of pos. And I believed he could misplay the hand post flop. Think I have 33% equity when the money goes in – however I hoped he had an over pair or something of the sort which could give me fold equity on such a co-ordinated board and I’d have even more outs.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980354 – the vil is playing 28/4 so it’s not a real supprise he called me pre-flop. I opted to just flat call on the flop, basically coz I wasn’t sure where I was in the hand – he could have flopped two pair or a flush draw, I was hoping he had the flush draw and chose to call. The Ace on the turn basically committed me to the hand and I planned to check-raise him all-in – hoping that this way he would have to call off the remained of his stack with the flush draw – however, he checks behind – and then shoves the river flush card – think it’s a fold – but equally, maybe I underrepresented the strength of my hand and should have called for that reason.
3) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980384 – more I think about this hand the more I think I should call the river bet. The vil was playing 19/13 and I’m getting 4:1 on the river-so I think perhaps a bad fold as he probably has the flush draw at least 1 in 3 times – and the other two times has me absolutely crushed.
In sum I played pretty appallingly, missed just about every flop and just kept getting check-raised – it felt like I was playing on FT again – lol
Will probably give it a bit of a basing over the next few days
Also want to back some ponies to vent some frustration of reaching break-even-for-the-year yesterday and now being $100 down again. Lol – This happened when I last broke even all those months ago in easter!
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980331 – this vil is playing 25/19 and certainly dosen’t look to be an experienced player – so I was happy to make this call out of pos. And I believed he could misplay the hand post flop. Think I have 33% equity when the money goes in – however I hoped he had an over pair or something of the sort which could give me fold equity on such a co-ordinated board and I’d have even more outs.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980354 – the vil is playing 28/4 so it’s not a real supprise he called me pre-flop. I opted to just flat call on the flop, basically coz I wasn’t sure where I was in the hand – he could have flopped two pair or a flush draw, I was hoping he had the flush draw and chose to call. The Ace on the turn basically committed me to the hand and I planned to check-raise him all-in – hoping that this way he would have to call off the remained of his stack with the flush draw – however, he checks behind – and then shoves the river flush card – think it’s a fold – but equally, maybe I underrepresented the strength of my hand and should have called for that reason.
3) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980384 – more I think about this hand the more I think I should call the river bet. The vil was playing 19/13 and I’m getting 4:1 on the river-so I think perhaps a bad fold as he probably has the flush draw at least 1 in 3 times – and the other two times has me absolutely crushed.
In sum I played pretty appallingly, missed just about every flop and just kept getting check-raised – it felt like I was playing on FT again – lol
Will probably give it a bit of a basing over the next few days
Also want to back some ponies to vent some frustration of reaching break-even-for-the-year yesterday and now being $100 down again. Lol – This happened when I last broke even all those months ago in easter!
Friday, 11 January 2008
The Big Dance (the Grand National)
For all those who haven't had the chance to read it - my prediction for the Cheltenham Gold Cup race is the post below. This is my early prediction for the Grand National at Aintree:
Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.
All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!
ty for reading, gl at the races
Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.
All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!
ty for reading, gl at the races
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