New Game, and here comes Chelts!

Well – poker has been running pretty good recently. I’ve changed my style and I think I’m also running better than before. I’ve been trying to keep to a maximum of 6 well selected tables and I’ve really been trying to open up my game. Instead of folding certain hands in certain positions and raising others I’ve been looking at my opponents stats and basing my pre-flop decisions more closely around that than the strength or weakness of my holding. I know these are all simple concepts, and things that I used to do, but I think I just became carried away with the loose donks on PTY and chose to focus on playing big pots with them at the expense of the rest of my game.

Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!

But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.

Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.

I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!

As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.

This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.

Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.