Okies – well I’ve actually had a couple of requests for my picks in the Cheltenham Festival. So, before I start I should probably explain why I believe my choices are credible. Firstly – trends – it is important to look at historical trends, especially for Cheltenham – no other National Hunt racecourse has so many repeat winners. There is also a good collection of horses that love Cheltenham, but just can’t get it together on other courses. Needless to say I make sure I have lots of info available to me when searching for trends.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
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