Kempton and Fairyhouse

Finally – a race that’s worth watching. This is the only big test remaining before Gold Cup week starts in Cheltenham. The 23rd Feb at Kempton and the Racing Post Handicap Chase (3:15). Won last year by Simon who went on to become a front runner for the National but failed to succeed falling six fences from home. This year Simon is 3rd favourite, but I still don’t think I’ll be backing him. He has really failed to live up to expectations since this race last year and for this reason I think his odds represent a sense of nostalgia rather than any his ability.

Simon’s odds, nonetheless, do reflect the fact his credentials match the trends: previous winners have performed well on the Kempton track and almost all winners have had previous successes at this distance (3m). However, of the previous nine winners, eight have won their last outings – Simon did not. In addition to this Simon clearly favours soft ground, and the conditions are expected to be fair. In my opinion, horses who favour soft, and have achieved notable victories on such ground, find it much more difficult to convert their abilities to a fairer surface than the competition. On this note, this factor is holding Kuato Star favourite over Denman in the Chelts Gold Cup.

The favourite, Gunadu, ran very well at Sandown earlier this month with Jockey Sam Thomas. However, his recent form with R. Walsh hasn’t been great, and perhaps this should be taken into account before backing him too hard. Nonetheless I think I’d give this horse a 7:2 shot at winning this race – so if you don’t mind anteposting on betfair I think the value is there. His success over this distance is of notoriety; however a win a Kempton is clearly missing from his criteria.

Ungaro is second on the books and is a strong second favourite. He’s a good runner, and certain to finish, however he hasn’t been first across the line since December ’06 – nonetheless – that was at Kempton. I really believe the odds on this particular horse are swayed by his form on this course, because he’s just not been able to bring it home for his syndicate recently. But, he’s certainly generating bit of action and his second place finish on good ground in Doncaster late January would lead one to believe that he could bring home this trophy.

There’s no run-away favourite in this race as Exotic Dancer pulled out a few days prior; so it’s certainly a race for the speculators. I also think the fact it’s fairly open means that a couple of outsider bets may prove fruitful. Bagan, for example, currently at 13:1 on betfair is a great antepost bet. A win at the Warwick course in the chase there earlier this month and a very respectable season altogether means that although this horse might not be the same calibre of some of the front runners the odds are still very much worth a £5 punt – I’ve already got mine down (at 17:1). Only notable disadvantage is that he prefers good to soft.

Wee Robbie is the biggest mover in the market, whilst writing this I tried to get a punt down on him and had to alter my odds for half the bet to process on betfair. It is recommended that you back him e/w, but hey, I’ve got him to win in the antepost markets. Is this a bit of a market bubble or could backing him be profitable?

Finally, if you want real value for money get a couple of quid on Herecomesstanley - at 45:1 on betfair he seems like a real outsider but has performed well at Kempton in the past and has notched up a fair few small victories this season. So if you want a real punt – you got one here!

In sum: if you want a good shot at some cash back Gunadu or Ungaro – of the two I’d probably take Ungaro – I feel the odds are fairer and more reflective of the fact that both of these horse have been thrown into the breach created by Dancers’ exit.
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This weekend’s racing also has a feature or two in Ireland. I’d certainly not call myself knowledgeable of Irish race courses – I’d find it hard pointing to some of them on a map. However, I have a couple of views for Fairyhouse in the Emerald Isle. The “At the Races Bobbyjo Chase” (4.20) has one very notable runner: Snowy Morning. Snowy is currently holding the number one spot in the Grand National – one should note that only 4 of the last 28 National winners have been favourites, nonetheless, this is a very capable horse that is almost sure to win against the field. Bet him to win!

If you want to add to your winning ticket I recommend backing Chelsea Harbour to place. He’s been running well and is currently climbing up the ante-post markets for the National. This will certainly be a test for him, and if he’s successful, you can be sure that all those who have got their money on him for Aintree will be laughing as the punters scramble for his decreasing odds.

Best of luck over the weekend!