Thursday, 13 March 2008

The final day! - shippitt! holla! Kauto!

So I bet you want to know how the top tipster is running – well, following my successes today I’m now up £32 on the festival – not a big profit from £180+ of bets, but according to the biggest Cheltenham tipsters- breaking even on the festival is a conquest.

So today I had two winners: In the Queen Mother Champion Chase I managed a win with Materminded whom I had £17 on at 3.7 – after other bets were settled it gave me a £39 profit. In the World Hurdle I had backed Inglis Drever for £35 at 2.5 which gave me a tidy profit of £50.

The Final Day has cometh – and what a day it’s going to be. - this will be the biggest sweat for the bookies since "Best Mate" shipped it in '02, '03 and '04. Is Kauto Star going to be the next punters favourite and bookies nightmare? - or has he just made every bookies' retirement fund?

So we have 9 races to come tomorrow – and I shall be sweating to the tune of £177.55 – sadly I have already lost £15 of that in the ante-post markets.

- 12:30: Mares Hurdle – “Chomba Womba” has to be one of my top tips for the day. This mare has a great form across pretty much all ground conditions – the only reason why she’s going at a carpet at the moment is because she’s never been tested on the Cheltenham course – I think she’s a good bet at 4.0. In this race I’ve also got a win and TBP bet on Silver Charmer (weighted to the TBP). I think she’s a good bet at around 100:1 – basically, she’s got such long odds because she’s a prone to pulling up and has sporadic successes – however, with Ruby Walsh at the reigns I think you’ll see the best performance from her – and if you can get pretty big odds I think she’s a nice little punt.

- 13:05: Ballymore Novice Hurdle – I haven’t changed my mind from “Forpadytheplasterer”. This horse has only been tested 4 times but has achieved a form of 1-2-1-1, so I can’t see why I’d be putting my money enywhere else.

- 13:40: Coral Cup – With such good current form I think “Leg Spinner” is a great bet. I have him at 6.2, I don’t think I’d like to go much below 4:1 (perhaps 7:2 at the very lowest) – however, this is purely to do with the competition. I think this is the best horse in the race, just not by a very long way.

- 14:15: Triumph Hurdle – “Franchoek” – this horse is having a staggering season (1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-3) – and it’s just been getting better. His last race so many punters decided his winning streak was due to come to come to an end and watched as he won by 9 lengths. A real Cheltenham regular, he loves this course and can win on any surface from good to firm to good to soft.

- 14:50: Novice Hurdle –“ Carruthers” – this horse is on steaming form, and has shown had quality runs over all grounds. I got him at 6.0 – and I’d say there’s still value there down to about 7:2.

- 15:30: Gold Cup – Okay – well if you have the gamble to bet on the winner then go for it (and make sure you pick “Kauto Star”) – however, if you want value – these are my recommendations. “Exotic Dancer” to win – I’d recommend that you bet this small and don’t take anything less than 13:1. “Afistfullofdollars” TBP; this was, at the time of posting, the best value bet I could find in the Gold Cup – this horse is on trouncing form – although it’ll take a miracle for him to win I’d certainly not be surprised to see him slip home in second or third place. Finally, I’d say that TBP’s on “Neptune Colognes” and “Knowhere” are also bets with a bit of value. – all in all, to all those (including myself) backing this race pretty strong, GL to you!

- 16:05: Fox Hunters Chase – “Angus A Vic” – a 7 year old on good form I think he’s got every chance of beating this field. I’d really not be surprised if this race isn’t too close – and I think the 6.2 which I recently got him at is not a bad price.

- 16:40: Grand Annual Challenge: “Enlightenment” – I’d take this bet in terms of value more than anything. This horse is on good form and has every chance to pull this one off.

- 17:20: Country Handicap Hurdle: “Psyco” – good form on most ground types – I’d certainly fancy him to win here.

Alrighty – so my favourite three for the day: 1) Chamba Womba, 2) Forpadydeplasterer, 3) Franchoek and if you want to back the Gold Cup as more of a punt then a place bet on Afistfullofdollars would be a good choice.

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