Okay – well I’ve been looking at the GN form and I’m going to ear-mark 6 horses today which I think need to be watched. And a couple that you should avoid!
I really wanted to avoid tipping the fav in this race. He’s around the 7.0 mark with the bookmakers and obviously this makes it a –ev bet. But you can’t blame the bookies, this horse is on form: he’s won 3 out of 4 races this season and earned his owners £62,000. His GN challenge is a serious one; he hasn’t raced for 35 days. In terms of matching my criteria, he’s won 5 chases over 3 miles, won a chase of £33k (this season), he’s not lost his mount this season and he hasn’t been crushed by the handicappers. However, at 6.0 I want this horse to be perfect, and there are still some issues: he’s never won over 4 miles, worse still he’s never raced over 4 miles, and he’s never had a trip over the GN fences. – so does he have the staying power?
Comply or Die: at 9 years old this horse has 14 chase runs under his belt. This season isn’t going too badly with one win in 4 races and a second place finish. He’s earned his owners £32k so far this season which included a £30k win! However, why I really fancy this horse is because he’s proven his abilities over 4 miles. Although he’s never been over the GN fences I’m happy with backing this springer hard and fast!
Bewleys Berry: I really like this horse. His season hasn’t been great with only a second place achieved out of two races, however, this has meant that his handicap is small (11-0). Okay, so this horse almost fits the bill, but he’s getting a little old imho and he’s never had a chase win of over £3k – but he’s sort of got the Aintree-factor. As I have previously mentioned, some horses run very well on certain courses, and Berry loves Aintree. I really believe that if the ground is good this horse has a good chance of running a great race – whether he has what it takes to be first past the post, I’m not sure – I would not take this horse at less than 15.0.
Snowy Morning: This horse is perhaps a little young to be a GN champion at 8 years. And although he had a good start to the season it did trail off a little towards the end. However, he’s won a chase of £21k, he’s on ok form this season with prize money totalling £34k and he’s had that all-important win over 3 miles. However, he has lost his mount once this season and perhaps isn’t best suited to the GN course.
Butlers Cabin: this horse I tipped on my blog in January. However, since backing him he’s been a disappointment and his odds have drifted accordingly. He’s proven over both 3 and 4 mile distances and has won a £95k chase before. However – this season has been a disappointment and he’s only pulled in £9k for his owners. He’s had 49 days to prepare for this race – will it be enough?
My outsider is Naunton Brook. For a 50/1 shot he’s a pretty decent horse. He really fits the bill tbh. In his 9 years he’s run in 25 chases, won 4 times over 3 miles and once over 4 miles, he also has had experience over the GN fences. This season he’s claimed £52k in prize money and has had 1 win in his six races. His biggest ever chase win is £26k and he’s only ever had one fall. Really, from this I could almost be describing a top 8 horse. However, the reasoning behind his position is his official rating of 140. OR’s are drawn up as a way of comparing horses against one and other and are based not on wins but on which horses they have beaten. Basically, Brook has never faced strong competition – so how will he fare against the field on April 5th.
You have to love the nerve of the bookies during the Grand National – Hedgehunter is now 12 years old, carrying a decent handicap (for some stupid reason) and is priced at 16.0! Betting on Hedgehunter to win the GN is like betting Linford Christie to win the 110m hurdle in Beijing this year. A massive mover in the markets has been King John’s Castle – I noticed him dropping from three figures so I took him at 50/1 and was pleased when I saw him around the 15.0 mark in the bookies – however, examining this horses form, I think 50/1 is a fair bet: Yes he’s had a good season claiming £33k in prize money with 3 second place finished and a first in 4 races – however, he’s never won over 2.5 miles! In my opinion, this horse is going to take the race by storm until the three mile mark and from then on he’ll be lucky to finish let alone place.
Thursday 27 March 2008
Monday 24 March 2008
2008 Oxford vs Cambridge Boat Race
This is just a quick post. Basically, I’m just amazed by how little is known by the experts in regards to the Oxford vs Cambridge University Boat Race this Saturday. Normally this is one of the easiest sporting events to handicap – but this year it seems that the bookies don’t have a clue. However, the punters seem to think they do – in the Betfair market about 85% of the money is going on Oxford!
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
Saturday 22 March 2008
The Grand National - picking winner explained
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
The Grand National - picking winner explained
Well – I think it’s time to start the Grand National thread. It’d be good to see what everyone else has to think – below is a copy of my latest blog post. My tips are coming later, but I think this is a good guide on how to approach picking a GN winner.
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
Wednesday 19 March 2008
Gold Cup trip report and Grand National update
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Thursday 13 March 2008
The final day! - shippitt! holla! Kauto!
So I bet you want to know how the top tipster is running – well, following my successes today I’m now up £32 on the festival – not a big profit from £180+ of bets, but according to the biggest Cheltenham tipsters- breaking even on the festival is a conquest.
So today I had two winners: In the Queen Mother Champion Chase I managed a win with Materminded whom I had £17 on at 3.7 – after other bets were settled it gave me a £39 profit. In the World Hurdle I had backed Inglis Drever for £35 at 2.5 which gave me a tidy profit of £50.
The Final Day has cometh – and what a day it’s going to be. - this will be the biggest sweat for the bookies since "Best Mate" shipped it in '02, '03 and '04. Is Kauto Star going to be the next punters favourite and bookies nightmare? - or has he just made every bookies' retirement fund?
So we have 9 races to come tomorrow – and I shall be sweating to the tune of £177.55 – sadly I have already lost £15 of that in the ante-post markets.
- 12:30: Mares Hurdle – “Chomba Womba” has to be one of my top tips for the day. This mare has a great form across pretty much all ground conditions – the only reason why she’s going at a carpet at the moment is because she’s never been tested on the Cheltenham course – I think she’s a good bet at 4.0. In this race I’ve also got a win and TBP bet on Silver Charmer (weighted to the TBP). I think she’s a good bet at around 100:1 – basically, she’s got such long odds because she’s a prone to pulling up and has sporadic successes – however, with Ruby Walsh at the reigns I think you’ll see the best performance from her – and if you can get pretty big odds I think she’s a nice little punt.
- 13:05: Ballymore Novice Hurdle – I haven’t changed my mind from “Forpadytheplasterer”. This horse has only been tested 4 times but has achieved a form of 1-2-1-1, so I can’t see why I’d be putting my money enywhere else.
- 13:40: Coral Cup – With such good current form I think “Leg Spinner” is a great bet. I have him at 6.2, I don’t think I’d like to go much below 4:1 (perhaps 7:2 at the very lowest) – however, this is purely to do with the competition. I think this is the best horse in the race, just not by a very long way.
- 14:15: Triumph Hurdle – “Franchoek” – this horse is having a staggering season (1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-3) – and it’s just been getting better. His last race so many punters decided his winning streak was due to come to come to an end and watched as he won by 9 lengths. A real Cheltenham regular, he loves this course and can win on any surface from good to firm to good to soft.
- 14:50: Novice Hurdle –“ Carruthers” – this horse is on steaming form, and has shown had quality runs over all grounds. I got him at 6.0 – and I’d say there’s still value there down to about 7:2.
- 15:30: Gold Cup – Okay – well if you have the gamble to bet on the winner then go for it (and make sure you pick “Kauto Star”) – however, if you want value – these are my recommendations. “Exotic Dancer” to win – I’d recommend that you bet this small and don’t take anything less than 13:1. “Afistfullofdollars” TBP; this was, at the time of posting, the best value bet I could find in the Gold Cup – this horse is on trouncing form – although it’ll take a miracle for him to win I’d certainly not be surprised to see him slip home in second or third place. Finally, I’d say that TBP’s on “Neptune Colognes” and “Knowhere” are also bets with a bit of value. – all in all, to all those (including myself) backing this race pretty strong, GL to you!
- 16:05: Fox Hunters Chase – “Angus A Vic” – a 7 year old on good form I think he’s got every chance of beating this field. I’d really not be surprised if this race isn’t too close – and I think the 6.2 which I recently got him at is not a bad price.
- 16:40: Grand Annual Challenge: “Enlightenment” – I’d take this bet in terms of value more than anything. This horse is on good form and has every chance to pull this one off.
- 17:20: Country Handicap Hurdle: “Psyco” – good form on most ground types – I’d certainly fancy him to win here.
Alrighty – so my favourite three for the day: 1) Chamba Womba, 2) Forpadydeplasterer, 3) Franchoek and if you want to back the Gold Cup as more of a punt then a place bet on Afistfullofdollars would be a good choice.
So today I had two winners: In the Queen Mother Champion Chase I managed a win with Materminded whom I had £17 on at 3.7 – after other bets were settled it gave me a £39 profit. In the World Hurdle I had backed Inglis Drever for £35 at 2.5 which gave me a tidy profit of £50.
The Final Day has cometh – and what a day it’s going to be. - this will be the biggest sweat for the bookies since "Best Mate" shipped it in '02, '03 and '04. Is Kauto Star going to be the next punters favourite and bookies nightmare? - or has he just made every bookies' retirement fund?
So we have 9 races to come tomorrow – and I shall be sweating to the tune of £177.55 – sadly I have already lost £15 of that in the ante-post markets.
- 12:30: Mares Hurdle – “Chomba Womba” has to be one of my top tips for the day. This mare has a great form across pretty much all ground conditions – the only reason why she’s going at a carpet at the moment is because she’s never been tested on the Cheltenham course – I think she’s a good bet at 4.0. In this race I’ve also got a win and TBP bet on Silver Charmer (weighted to the TBP). I think she’s a good bet at around 100:1 – basically, she’s got such long odds because she’s a prone to pulling up and has sporadic successes – however, with Ruby Walsh at the reigns I think you’ll see the best performance from her – and if you can get pretty big odds I think she’s a nice little punt.
- 13:05: Ballymore Novice Hurdle – I haven’t changed my mind from “Forpadytheplasterer”. This horse has only been tested 4 times but has achieved a form of 1-2-1-1, so I can’t see why I’d be putting my money enywhere else.
- 13:40: Coral Cup – With such good current form I think “Leg Spinner” is a great bet. I have him at 6.2, I don’t think I’d like to go much below 4:1 (perhaps 7:2 at the very lowest) – however, this is purely to do with the competition. I think this is the best horse in the race, just not by a very long way.
- 14:15: Triumph Hurdle – “Franchoek” – this horse is having a staggering season (1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-1-3) – and it’s just been getting better. His last race so many punters decided his winning streak was due to come to come to an end and watched as he won by 9 lengths. A real Cheltenham regular, he loves this course and can win on any surface from good to firm to good to soft.
- 14:50: Novice Hurdle –“ Carruthers” – this horse is on steaming form, and has shown had quality runs over all grounds. I got him at 6.0 – and I’d say there’s still value there down to about 7:2.
- 15:30: Gold Cup – Okay – well if you have the gamble to bet on the winner then go for it (and make sure you pick “Kauto Star”) – however, if you want value – these are my recommendations. “Exotic Dancer” to win – I’d recommend that you bet this small and don’t take anything less than 13:1. “Afistfullofdollars” TBP; this was, at the time of posting, the best value bet I could find in the Gold Cup – this horse is on trouncing form – although it’ll take a miracle for him to win I’d certainly not be surprised to see him slip home in second or third place. Finally, I’d say that TBP’s on “Neptune Colognes” and “Knowhere” are also bets with a bit of value. – all in all, to all those (including myself) backing this race pretty strong, GL to you!
- 16:05: Fox Hunters Chase – “Angus A Vic” – a 7 year old on good form I think he’s got every chance of beating this field. I’d really not be surprised if this race isn’t too close – and I think the 6.2 which I recently got him at is not a bad price.
- 16:40: Grand Annual Challenge: “Enlightenment” – I’d take this bet in terms of value more than anything. This horse is on good form and has every chance to pull this one off.
- 17:20: Country Handicap Hurdle: “Psyco” – good form on most ground types – I’d certainly fancy him to win here.
Alrighty – so my favourite three for the day: 1) Chamba Womba, 2) Forpadydeplasterer, 3) Franchoek and if you want to back the Gold Cup as more of a punt then a place bet on Afistfullofdollars would be a good choice.
Wednesday 12 March 2008
CHELTENHAM CANCELLED FOR THE DAY
All ante-post bets stand still and the card has been split over Thursday and Friday – will write it up soon.
Major change will be is that there will be 9 races tomorrow and a fair few on Friday priot to the Gold Cup – this could make the ground heavy (instead of good to soft) this will certainly affect the odds on Kuato Star!
Major change will be is that there will be 9 races tomorrow and a fair few on Friday priot to the Gold Cup – this could make the ground heavy (instead of good to soft) this will certainly affect the odds on Kuato Star!
Tuesday 11 March 2008
Day 1 trip report, Day 2 forecast
Day 1: Mixed feelings!
- 2pm: Supreme Novice Hurdle: Very please with my selections here – “Captain Cee Bee” ran a great race and earned a well deserved victory and “Snap tie” came in third to up my profits in this race to over £50
- 2.35: Arkle Challenge: Well, I think I told everyone what to do with their money here and sure enough “Tidal Bay” won by 12 legnths – he jumped terribly but his speed and stamina made up for his constant mistakes over the hurdles. My victory in this race was, however, short lived – just as I added my £42 profit from this race to my initial profits I realised that I hadn’t actually placed the bet, and as a result had actually made a small loss on “Moon over Miami”! – so it’s not just the poker gods that hate me!
- 3:15: Champion Hurdle: This one hurt me. I had “Osana” to win, “Harchibald” e/w and “Sublimity” e/w. Coming up to the last 150 metres the field was “Osana”, “Katchit”, “Sublimity”, Punjabi – over the line it went; “Katchit”, “Osana”, “Punjabi”, “Sublimity” – a loss of £58! (when it was nearly a win of £21 – grrr)
- Will Hill Chase – I didn’t watch this one as my two ante-post choices, “Battlecry” and “afistfullofdollars “had been pulled and my last hope “Abragante” put in a poor effort – only a £10 loss though.
- The Champion Bumper – well, this was my ‘break even or die trying’ race. I put a bet on Ashkazar just before the race at 2.88 started and I also had Chapoturgeon at 22.0. My horse was leading by two lengths but managed to lose to the second favourite.
So – day one behind us and I’m down £31.97. Just really upset about not placing my second bet (and thinking I had until after the race), and also angry that I chose not to back the horse that went on to win the Cross Country Chase after I had tipped a friend about it and had to listen to his drunken rant about how sick a tip it was. Lol
So – Tomorrow –
Well – the ground is still good to soft and I’m praying it stays that way! So, tbh my choices haven’t changed at all.
- 2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdle – “Forpadydeplasterer” is still my choice here. A great horse who I’m sure can put in a good performance.
- 2:35pm – Sun Alliance Chase – I’d still say that “Silverburn” is a great value e/w choice. But “Tidal Bay” is also running, and with the confidence from todays win driving him on I’d say at 13.0 this is certainly some value, as is the TBP option at 4.1.
- 3:15 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Not a race to take any horses to place. I’m reasonably happy with “Masterminded” and “Voy Por Ustedes” - I know that both “Twist Magic” and “Tamerinbleu” are seeing heaps of action but I’m sticking with my original view. “Masterminded” is perfect for this race; currently on great form with two wins in small fields on ground good to soft. “Voy Por Usterdes” didn’t win his last race but has a great lifetime form of 2-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-3, with a good to soft form of 2-1-1-1-1.
- 4pm – Coral Cup – You have to fancy “Leg Spinner” here. He’s taken down some big fields in the past, likes the ground good to soft, and in my opinion is the horse they all have to beat.
Okies – so yer, only backin the first 4 races – I had long-shot views in the ante-post markets for “Toby Jug” and “Endless Intrigue” but neither have been entered for the race. My only big-money sweat is “Masterminded” – it’s a bit painful to be coming from behind already – but hey, lets hope we can make up our lost ground.
So yer: my top tip for the day is: “Forepadydeplasterer” to win!
- 2pm: Supreme Novice Hurdle: Very please with my selections here – “Captain Cee Bee” ran a great race and earned a well deserved victory and “Snap tie” came in third to up my profits in this race to over £50
- 2.35: Arkle Challenge: Well, I think I told everyone what to do with their money here and sure enough “Tidal Bay” won by 12 legnths – he jumped terribly but his speed and stamina made up for his constant mistakes over the hurdles. My victory in this race was, however, short lived – just as I added my £42 profit from this race to my initial profits I realised that I hadn’t actually placed the bet, and as a result had actually made a small loss on “Moon over Miami”! – so it’s not just the poker gods that hate me!
- 3:15: Champion Hurdle: This one hurt me. I had “Osana” to win, “Harchibald” e/w and “Sublimity” e/w. Coming up to the last 150 metres the field was “Osana”, “Katchit”, “Sublimity”, Punjabi – over the line it went; “Katchit”, “Osana”, “Punjabi”, “Sublimity” – a loss of £58! (when it was nearly a win of £21 – grrr)
- Will Hill Chase – I didn’t watch this one as my two ante-post choices, “Battlecry” and “afistfullofdollars “had been pulled and my last hope “Abragante” put in a poor effort – only a £10 loss though.
- The Champion Bumper – well, this was my ‘break even or die trying’ race. I put a bet on Ashkazar just before the race at 2.88 started and I also had Chapoturgeon at 22.0. My horse was leading by two lengths but managed to lose to the second favourite.
So – day one behind us and I’m down £31.97. Just really upset about not placing my second bet (and thinking I had until after the race), and also angry that I chose not to back the horse that went on to win the Cross Country Chase after I had tipped a friend about it and had to listen to his drunken rant about how sick a tip it was. Lol
So – Tomorrow –
Well – the ground is still good to soft and I’m praying it stays that way! So, tbh my choices haven’t changed at all.
- 2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdle – “Forpadydeplasterer” is still my choice here. A great horse who I’m sure can put in a good performance.
- 2:35pm – Sun Alliance Chase – I’d still say that “Silverburn” is a great value e/w choice. But “Tidal Bay” is also running, and with the confidence from todays win driving him on I’d say at 13.0 this is certainly some value, as is the TBP option at 4.1.
- 3:15 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Not a race to take any horses to place. I’m reasonably happy with “Masterminded” and “Voy Por Ustedes” - I know that both “Twist Magic” and “Tamerinbleu” are seeing heaps of action but I’m sticking with my original view. “Masterminded” is perfect for this race; currently on great form with two wins in small fields on ground good to soft. “Voy Por Usterdes” didn’t win his last race but has a great lifetime form of 2-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-3, with a good to soft form of 2-1-1-1-1.
- 4pm – Coral Cup – You have to fancy “Leg Spinner” here. He’s taken down some big fields in the past, likes the ground good to soft, and in my opinion is the horse they all have to beat.
Okies – so yer, only backin the first 4 races – I had long-shot views in the ante-post markets for “Toby Jug” and “Endless Intrigue” but neither have been entered for the race. My only big-money sweat is “Masterminded” – it’s a bit painful to be coming from behind already – but hey, lets hope we can make up our lost ground.
So yer: my top tip for the day is: “Forepadydeplasterer” to win!
Saturday 8 March 2008
Ollie's Picks for days 1 and 2 of the Cheltenham Festival - March 11th and 12th.
Okies – well I’ve actually had a couple of requests for my picks in the Cheltenham Festival. So, before I start I should probably explain why I believe my choices are credible. Firstly – trends – it is important to look at historical trends, especially for Cheltenham – no other National Hunt racecourse has so many repeat winners. There is also a good collection of horses that love Cheltenham, but just can’t get it together on other courses. Needless to say I make sure I have lots of info available to me when searching for trends.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
Just as important as trends are form – horses rarely will put on a surprise performance in the National Hunt. Yes. Anything can happen in a chase. But good things are more likely to happen for an outsider on form than a favourite whose not.
Finally, sound information. There are specific people I’ll take advice from; most of them are currently working closely with the breeding and training of chase horses and others have done in the past. It is so important to avoid the pitfalls of “bubble” favourites. Betting markets are even more bubbly than financial markets, however, you can’t buy low and sell high – your horse has to produce the goods!
I’ll be writing up each race for each day starting with my picks with the longest odds.
Day 1 – Tuesday 11th:
2PM – Supreme Novice Hurdle.
- A good long-shot is “Snap Tie” – a sound jumper with a good record over hurdles at Cheltenham, certainly at the beginning of a good career but with odds of 19.5 on Betfair I believe this bet to be the best for value in the race.
- “Pigeon Island” has really come to form towards the end of this season, loves the ground to be good to soft (certain forecast for the festival), won his last outing which I hope will give him the confidence to win. Really good bet at 14.0 on the markets.
- The fav. “Captain Cee Bee” – best value fav. of the day at 8.8 on the markets. Fantastic form with 3-1-1-1. Although this will be his first outing at Cheltenham I believe this horse a good bet.
2-35 – Independent Arkle Challenge.
- “Moon over Miami”, trading at 14.0 is a good bet for this race. His odds adjusted to a burst blood vessel suffered following his last outing at Warwick – other than his last race things are looking good with 1-4-1-5. I’d fancy him as a sweet e/w bet.
- “Noland” – Trading at 3.3 it’s a nasty bet to have to make, but with the likes of R. Walsh riding this horse I’d certainly say he’s the one they all have to beat. On the nose and hard !– ship! Ship!
3-15 – Champion Hurdle.
- “Harchibald” – at 8.8 he’s a great horse and with 1-2-1-2 for his last 4 outings you’d be hard pressed to argue that his current form is anything but close to the mark. He loves it good to soft and I have him e/w for this race.
- “Sublimity” – I’m putting my neck on the line with this horse, and I’m not completely happy with the odds I took (6.4) – this is last year’s winner etc, but his last outing was a bit of a disappointment. However, I think he could pull it out the bag for the double, so as an e/w this was my second choice for the race.
5-20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle.
- “Chapoturgeon” – I’m fairly happy with my bet on this horse – I have £2 on at 22.0 (think he’s trading at 20.0 atm). He’s on good form with 2 runs and 2 wins this year – pre 2008 his form isn’t great, but I think he’s coming to form and there’s a good chance this 4 year old will be a real force at some point in his career.
Day 2 – Wednesday 13th:
2pm – Ballymore Novice Hurdel.
- “Forpadydeplasterer” – this horses on form! – 1-2-1-1! – He absolutely trumps this field. At 6.0 I cannot see any horse I’d rather be getting my money on – gl!
2-35 – Sun Alliance Chase.
- “Silverburn” – 8.8 to win and 2.3 to place makes him a good e/w selection. I know there’s some talent in this line up, but one cannot forget that this is a P. F. Nichols horse ridden by champion jockey Sam Thomas. Although his form is questionable (1-3-2-6) it’s also clear he likes it good to soft, he can go the distance at Cheltenham and a win on his last outing should be the confidence boost necessary for a win over the hurdles.
3-15 – Queen Mother Handicap Chase.
- “Voy Por Ustedes” I would say is a good choice around the 4.4 mark – in a tough field like this you have to fancy the front runners, and Usterdes is certainly amongst the top, his form ok (2-1-2-2) and I’d certainly expect him to come in the top 3 – however, with the odds as they are an e/w bet is serious –ev. So it’s on the nose I’m afraid.
- “Masterminded” – also at 4.4 – with R. Walsh at the helm and a great current form this horse is my favourite out of the two I’ve mentioned.
4pm – Coral Cup.
- “Leg Spinner” – winning at Newmarket in a field of 33 on his last outing means this horse has my money on his back. At 6.2 I’m hoping it to be a nice little win too!
5-20pm - Champion Bumper.
- “Endless Intrigue” – okies – so he’s at 180.0 on Betfair at the moment and may not run – but you must believe me when I say that I have heard, on the highest authority, that any bet at more than 33:1 is massive value – so 179:1 is pretty sick! – Why have I chosen this horse? – well this race is a Bumper – which means it’s a flat race on a National Hunt course aimed at showcasing fresh talent – to the bookies this is hell – it is so hard to handicap so I implore you to get a bet down on this 4 y/o – I think this could be my stunner (and if it comes in I owe my friend who gave me the tip a bottle of Dom for his troubles). His record is 100% win – alright – he’s only raced once – but value is value!
Alright – well I’m bored of writing and rather tired so I think I’m going to blog up the final two days of the race on Monday. Until then – hit up the ante-post markets!
PS – my 4 best tips for these two days are: 1) “Endless Intrigue” – sick, sick, sick value! 2) “Forpadydeplasterer” – has a great shot and nice odds for a fav. 3) “Harchibald” – great chance and the right odds for a front runner in the Champion Hurdle. 4) “Captain Cee Bee” – all the same reasons really – a fav at 8.4 is a sweet bet.
Wednesday 5 March 2008
New Game, and here comes Chelts!
Well – poker has been running pretty good recently. I’ve changed my style and I think I’m also running better than before. I’ve been trying to keep to a maximum of 6 well selected tables and I’ve really been trying to open up my game. Instead of folding certain hands in certain positions and raising others I’ve been looking at my opponents stats and basing my pre-flop decisions more closely around that than the strength or weakness of my holding. I know these are all simple concepts, and things that I used to do, but I think I just became carried away with the loose donks on PTY and chose to focus on playing big pots with them at the expense of the rest of my game.
Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!
But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.
Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.
I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!
As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.
This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.
Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.
Looking at my graph for the last 1k hands (a small sample I know), I’m still making the bulk of my money from my big hands, but the percentage I’ve made from bluffing the right people and upping my aggression overall has increased tenfold. Instead of big ups on the graph followed by a losing period I’m now looking at big ups followed by a slow winning period. Much better!
But, I do concede to the fact that I have been running pretty good, avoiding coolers (mostly) and also – 1k hands is a very small sample. But it does lend itself to my other change; I used to play very long sessions, sometimes 3.5+ hours often across 8 tables, now I’m trying to keep to hour long sessions. Soon I’ll be looking to up this to 1.5 hours, but I’d definitely say that this will be close to the optimum amount of time – enough time to settle into the game, pick up reads and capitalise on them – but not enough time to get tired, bored and careless.
Ok – so to the ponies – well I’ve been trying to work on the Gold Cup all week. I must have put hours into comprising views, re-working them, replacing them and just wanting to break everything around me. The only way to beat racing is to put in heaps of time. You have to work out what is a bet with value and what isn’t: a 33:1 shot sounds like a good £3 punt, but if the horse has as much chance as a three-legged rocking horse it’s still a bet with no expected long-term value. Furthermore, backing favourites; often a losing game in the long run due to their measly returns.
I know I’m guilty of placing bad bets; Kuato in the Gold Cup for instance – the odds are way too short to take into account that although this is a two horse race, there are also 18 other horses who, on a chase track, have a chance. In the bookies a friend of mine was recently offered Kuato at evens, Denman at 5:4, Exotic Dancer at 9:1 – lmao. This means that either Kuato or Denman should win this race 90% of the time – that’s just not Cheltenham! So why do I have my money down, well TBH I got my money down in January at 2.38 – nice enough odds, and I was working off a tip that hasn’t materialised that Denman was more likely to run in the Queen Mother’s Chase the on the Wednesday. The tip that made sense to me as I couldn’t see why the syndicate wanted to run these two great horses up against each other. But alas, they’re both running and I think I’m flipping in the bookies favour for £50 – Fuck it! It’s the fukin’ gold cup race – I’m betting on it!
As for the other 24 races. Well the good thing about 24 races is that you don’t have to back them all, you’re much better off looking for value and backing it strong. I’ve allowed myself a bankroll of £330 for the festival and already have £155 of that down in the ante-post markets. I’ve got a good selection of tipped long shots, hot favs (where the money’s been right) and some front runners whose odds, I feel, are good value due to the favourite’s attention.
This is my view for day 1:
2pm – Supreme Novice Hurdle – note: a very hard race to handicap so backing the favs is definitely a bad bet – I’ve decided to take Pigeon Island to win and Snap Tie e/w.
2:35 – Arkle Challenge – I’m not sure if I’m going to be backing this race, the favourite, Noland, is fairly strong and has a good chance, but if I was to back it I’d take Tidal Bay or Mahogany Blaze
3:15 – Champion Hurdle – fuck me a hard one this – I’m going to put my neck on the line and try to make a race prediction. I believe the front pack will consist of Sizing Europe (fav), Osana, Sublimity and Harchibald. How is see it is if Harchibald is kept out of the lead until the last 2 furlongs he can make a great break for the finish, if the jockey fails to keep him under control he’ll break early and probably fail to place. So – considering that the odds are around 7:1 I think you should get your money down on Harchibald.
4pm – Will Hill Chase – I’m writing this whilst the confirmations are not yet out for this race and most markets are suspended – tbh, I have no real idea about this so I’ll leave any predicting til later.
4:40pm – Cross Country Chase – a race where anything can happen (ish). It’s between Wonderkid and Garde Champtre. Definitely a tough one for me – and still not certain whether I’ll be backing this race. If I do it’ll probably be Wonderkid at this stage.
5:20 – Juvenile Novice Hurdle – Again no real views but there is definitely value in taking Chapoturgeon to win at 21:1 on betfair.
Well gl to all those who are thinking of putting a bet down on the first day of the festival. I believe this to be the second best day in terms of the line up so probably worth a punt. If you only want to put down one bet – take Harchibald in the Champion Hurdle.
Sunday 2 March 2008
Cheltenham update
To all those who are interested in the Olympics of Horse Racing that is Cheltenham Festival:
I’m currently in the middle of putting together my view for the week. Between the 11th and the 14th of March there will be 25 races – it’s a bitch for the punter to handicap, and it’s also a bitch for the bookies. Although the big races will have so much volume and have been handicapped to the finest degree, it is almost guaranteed that some of the smaller races will be won by relative unknowns running with a shit load of value.
I’m currently working on the form for some of the big races – and fuck me is it tough – there’s such quality out there this year that I’m constantly getting down to 4 potentials and just not knowing where to go from there. But help is at hand – one of my good friends from Cheltenham is going to the pre-race meet to rub shoulders with jockeys and owners – and because he’s from a horse owning family he’s certainly on the inner circle when it comes to his advice. – so hopefully there shall be some good tips going up on this blog.
For now I’m going to give you a couple of outsiders who I think are worth a punt:
- Tuesday 11th, Juvenile Novice Hurdle, “Chapoturgeon”, e/w advisable.
- Wednesday 12th, National Hunt Chase, “Toby Jug”, massive outsider, but I think he’s certainly worth a punt – 55.0 to win in the ante-post markets!
- Friday 14th, Fox Hunters Chase, “Thisthatandtother”, e/w advisable
- Friday 14th, Mares Only Hurdle, “Silver Charmer”, 18.0 TBP (betfair ante-post) are great odds!
And for those who don’t watch racing apart from the Grand National; please listen to me when I implore you to watch the Gold Cup race (Friday, 3:15pm). This is going to be the most exciting race since the 1960s and perhaps the most exciting Gold Cup ever.
“Exotic Dancer” one of the best horses we’ve seen in year will be lining up at 14:1, why? because he’s going to be up against the astonishing talent of “Kuato Star” and “Denman”. “Denman”; an old fashioned chaser, absolutely solid, will crush pretty much any field and has enough stamina to complete a victory lap. He’ll be up against his equal and opposite; “Kuato Star”- a speedster, his victories are always decisive, he has all the flair and arrogance of a world champion boxer crossed with a Russian ballerina and is looking to win his second Cheltenham Gold Cup. This race will be talked about for years, whatever the outcome, so whatever you do – don’t fucking miss it! – I’ll be watching it from the Champagne Bar on the finishing straight! - lol (depending on how my day is going...)
I’m currently in the middle of putting together my view for the week. Between the 11th and the 14th of March there will be 25 races – it’s a bitch for the punter to handicap, and it’s also a bitch for the bookies. Although the big races will have so much volume and have been handicapped to the finest degree, it is almost guaranteed that some of the smaller races will be won by relative unknowns running with a shit load of value.
I’m currently working on the form for some of the big races – and fuck me is it tough – there’s such quality out there this year that I’m constantly getting down to 4 potentials and just not knowing where to go from there. But help is at hand – one of my good friends from Cheltenham is going to the pre-race meet to rub shoulders with jockeys and owners – and because he’s from a horse owning family he’s certainly on the inner circle when it comes to his advice. – so hopefully there shall be some good tips going up on this blog.
For now I’m going to give you a couple of outsiders who I think are worth a punt:
- Tuesday 11th, Juvenile Novice Hurdle, “Chapoturgeon”, e/w advisable.
- Wednesday 12th, National Hunt Chase, “Toby Jug”, massive outsider, but I think he’s certainly worth a punt – 55.0 to win in the ante-post markets!
- Friday 14th, Fox Hunters Chase, “Thisthatandtother”, e/w advisable
- Friday 14th, Mares Only Hurdle, “Silver Charmer”, 18.0 TBP (betfair ante-post) are great odds!
And for those who don’t watch racing apart from the Grand National; please listen to me when I implore you to watch the Gold Cup race (Friday, 3:15pm). This is going to be the most exciting race since the 1960s and perhaps the most exciting Gold Cup ever.
“Exotic Dancer” one of the best horses we’ve seen in year will be lining up at 14:1, why? because he’s going to be up against the astonishing talent of “Kuato Star” and “Denman”. “Denman”; an old fashioned chaser, absolutely solid, will crush pretty much any field and has enough stamina to complete a victory lap. He’ll be up against his equal and opposite; “Kuato Star”- a speedster, his victories are always decisive, he has all the flair and arrogance of a world champion boxer crossed with a Russian ballerina and is looking to win his second Cheltenham Gold Cup. This race will be talked about for years, whatever the outcome, so whatever you do – don’t fucking miss it! – I’ll be watching it from the Champagne Bar on the finishing straight! - lol (depending on how my day is going...)
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