Denman v Kauto Star - Cheltenham Gold Cup 2008

So we’re well into the race season and I’ve decided to start putting together a view on the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup. The race will be run on the 14th of March 2008, however, if you want to get a good price on the favourites you’ll have to take fixed odds before the end of February. I took a real interest to this race after the 26th of December. I was given a tip on Christmas day to get a heap of money on Kauto Star in the King George VI chase at Kempton - a heap of money was necessary because he was a 4:6 fav. Kauto was being raced by Ruby Walsh; his first race after a shoulder injury sustained at Cheltenham earlier in the season. However, I managed to party through the day though and after going to bed at about 8:30am I missed the race which Kauto won by about 10 lengths. What made it worse was my mum had managed to get some money on the horse and seemed very smug in the morning as I stumbled out of bed...

According to Walsh this is the horse of his generation; quite a good endorsement you could say. Better still he’s still on the up and has continually improved throughout the season. Basically, he’s causing a bit of a storm at the moment. So, perhaps it’d be hard not to put your money on him...
(this is Walsh’s interview following the race: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_7160000/newsid_7160600/7160670.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&bbcws=1)

Denman, Kauto’s most closely matched rival and stable mate has also had an incredible season; 11 victories from 12 starts. He is also from Paul Nicholls’ stable and a favourite of Walsh, but for different reasons; Denman doesn’t have Kauto’s flair, he’s a slower horse and hasn’t had the same decisive victories, however, on soft ground Denman should beat any field.

Walsh has not yet chosen which horse to ride in the Gold Cup. His decision will dictate the favourite for the race and will be based on the ground condition. Soft, he’ll be riding Denman, good, he’s ride Kauto.

In my mind, barring any tragic falls, Walsh will be riding the horse that wins in this clash. However, if you place your bet after he’s decided your returns are going to be pitiful. Some of the big bettors from Ireland are already getting their money down on this clash – and some of the biggest action has been on Denman. Why? Well with the odds as they stand, Denman is the best bet simply because his odds are kinder on what is going to be the hardest race to handicap for decades. Some of the older punters are bringing up the famous clash in 1964 between Arkle and Mill House. However, others are comparing it to Arkle vs Flyingbolt – as they were also stable mates – however, that clash never happened due to an injury sustained by Flyingbolt. So, perhaps this will be the most exciting clash in the history of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

To be honest, I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited about a race. I’ve had some great views on outsiders in the Grand National – some of which I’ve pulled off to experienced handicappers amazement, I also cheered Best Mate to victory three times at Cheltenham and had him on my ticket each time, but never before have I seen two of the most brilliant and closely matched horses in the same race, and perhaps I won’t again.

So, what is my tip? This race is just too close; Kauto or Denman WILL win, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind. So I can’t start talking about backing outsiders, because I just can’t see it happening – it won’t happen! So you look at the top two; both seven years old, in my mind the perfect age for this race (stamina and determination combined with experience), they are both in the middle of their best season, they have both won at this distance several times, they are both from, arguably, the best stable, however, only one will have the best jockey...

I think I’d go with my heart on this one. I know Walsh will only choose to ride Denman in the ground is soft. I believe he wants what would be the most talked about victory of his career to be on Kauto, and so, in my humble opinion, Kauto Star is where your money should go, and make sure you take him to win! And after all, you don’t want your money to be on a horse named after a hairbrush...

GL everyone - I'll be putting up my early Grand National predictions later in the week. Bewleys Berry to win - SHIP! SHIP!!