This is just going to be a quick post coz I gotta get to campus. Okies – just a few recommended bets really –
Today; Musselburgh, 2pm – Mister Jungle to win. Huntingdon, 3:10pm Le Briar Soul
Alright and to the weekend – Cheltenham.
1st race, the 1pm is really just a punt but I think you should back Hold Em, partially because of the name, partially because he’s a bit of an up and coming horse which will make it harder for the bookies to get the price right – so it may be a good value bet.
3rd race, the 2pm – I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say Butler’s Cabin. He’s got a shite-load of stamina and has had wins in the National Hunt Chase and the Irish National last season. And although the ante post odds have fallen away slightly (effectively costing me money) – I still think this horse has easily got what it takes to crush this field. But I should mention Vodka Bleu; having a great season and his recent form is pretty hot, he’s also been over the Cheltenham hurdles more times than I care to remember – so if I was taking two, I’d certainly include Vodka.
4th race. The Letheby and Christopher Chase. I believe this could be a close race between Exotic Dancer and Neptune Collonges. If I had to chose I’d take Collonges I think; he’s not the greatest horse I’ve ever seen, but his recent form is pretty good, I think he’ll be pretty much all or nothing in this race so back to win. If you want a safer bet take Dancer each way – I think that’s probably going to pay you something. Oh yer, if the odds are right, an each way punt on Simon is recommended.
Ps. bit of poker below
GL
Wednesday 23 January 2008
Tuesday 22 January 2008
Broke even yesterday, then made my first $50 - now down $100
Alrighty so just finished a shitty session – couldn’t seem to make any hands, and nothing stood up – few tricky hands though.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980331 – this vil is playing 25/19 and certainly dosen’t look to be an experienced player – so I was happy to make this call out of pos. And I believed he could misplay the hand post flop. Think I have 33% equity when the money goes in – however I hoped he had an over pair or something of the sort which could give me fold equity on such a co-ordinated board and I’d have even more outs.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980354 – the vil is playing 28/4 so it’s not a real supprise he called me pre-flop. I opted to just flat call on the flop, basically coz I wasn’t sure where I was in the hand – he could have flopped two pair or a flush draw, I was hoping he had the flush draw and chose to call. The Ace on the turn basically committed me to the hand and I planned to check-raise him all-in – hoping that this way he would have to call off the remained of his stack with the flush draw – however, he checks behind – and then shoves the river flush card – think it’s a fold – but equally, maybe I underrepresented the strength of my hand and should have called for that reason.
3) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980384 – more I think about this hand the more I think I should call the river bet. The vil was playing 19/13 and I’m getting 4:1 on the river-so I think perhaps a bad fold as he probably has the flush draw at least 1 in 3 times – and the other two times has me absolutely crushed.
In sum I played pretty appallingly, missed just about every flop and just kept getting check-raised – it felt like I was playing on FT again – lol
Will probably give it a bit of a basing over the next few days
Also want to back some ponies to vent some frustration of reaching break-even-for-the-year yesterday and now being $100 down again. Lol – This happened when I last broke even all those months ago in easter!
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980331 – this vil is playing 25/19 and certainly dosen’t look to be an experienced player – so I was happy to make this call out of pos. And I believed he could misplay the hand post flop. Think I have 33% equity when the money goes in – however I hoped he had an over pair or something of the sort which could give me fold equity on such a co-ordinated board and I’d have even more outs.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980354 – the vil is playing 28/4 so it’s not a real supprise he called me pre-flop. I opted to just flat call on the flop, basically coz I wasn’t sure where I was in the hand – he could have flopped two pair or a flush draw, I was hoping he had the flush draw and chose to call. The Ace on the turn basically committed me to the hand and I planned to check-raise him all-in – hoping that this way he would have to call off the remained of his stack with the flush draw – however, he checks behind – and then shoves the river flush card – think it’s a fold – but equally, maybe I underrepresented the strength of my hand and should have called for that reason.
3) http://www.pokerhand.org/?1980384 – more I think about this hand the more I think I should call the river bet. The vil was playing 19/13 and I’m getting 4:1 on the river-so I think perhaps a bad fold as he probably has the flush draw at least 1 in 3 times – and the other two times has me absolutely crushed.
In sum I played pretty appallingly, missed just about every flop and just kept getting check-raised – it felt like I was playing on FT again – lol
Will probably give it a bit of a basing over the next few days
Also want to back some ponies to vent some frustration of reaching break-even-for-the-year yesterday and now being $100 down again. Lol – This happened when I last broke even all those months ago in easter!
Friday 11 January 2008
The Big Dance (the Grand National)
For all those who haven't had the chance to read it - my prediction for the Cheltenham Gold Cup race is the post below. This is my early prediction for the Grand National at Aintree:
Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.
All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!
ty for reading, gl at the races
Thought I’d start observing the Grand National field. Few names looking to make an impact this year. The race is 4 months away and there is already a 14:1 favourite! Mr Pointment – winner of the November Becher chase, which is thought to be a good first test for a National winner after Amberleigh House won them both in 03/04. Obviously having a good season, and has proven he has what it takes; my only problem is that I think the bookies are taking the piss at 14:1. (I still have got some money down on him though)
Butlers Cabin has proven his stamina by claiming the Irish National and the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham (at 33:1!) – and he’s owned by JP McManus which is never a bad sign, he’s in at 16:1. On the other hand, Butlers Cabin managed to lose the gold cup chase at Leicester on the 9th Jan and some are saying that he just isn’t being raced enough in the run up to the National.
At the moment my favourite is Bewleys Berry. As I mentioned before, I’ve picked out some of the top outsiders over the years in the National, and thought I had done it again when Berry took the lead at a critical point two thirds of the way through last years’, but it was not to be. This year he’s going to be heavily backed – so I would recommend on-the-nose betting if you’re not a fan of taking ante-post odds, but if you want to take him e/w do it soon!
Others in the top 5 include Simon – Again this is a horse that has the stamina, experience necessary and is having a good season. However, you won’t see the best performance out of the 8 year old unless the ground is soft – which in my opinion makes him a difficult ante-post bet. Odds are between 16 and 20:1 at the moment so it’s clear the bookies don’t know how to rate him either.
Finally, Snowy Morning has made it into the top 5, also at 16:1. Why? Well, I’m not entirely sure. My feeling is that following his win over the hurdles at Punchestown on the 4th Jan people have started backing this horse a little hard. In my opinion he just doesn’t have the experience to win a race of this calibre. I can see him being a very strong contender next year, but I wouldn’t back him this time around.
Other horses I think need a mention are last year’s favourite Point Barrow whose fall at the first gave him little chance to prove himself. Joes Edge I believe can go the distance but should only be back e/w. Numbersix Valverde, my big tip for the ’06 National didn’t have much of a chance in last years’ race due to his handicap and the good ground conditions, however, this year, with less weight I think he’ll be a good e/w bet as he’s almost sure to finish. Hedgehunter is running again! He ran like a lame donkey last year with a shit load of weight and recovering from an injury, however, with less weight he may have a chance of a place – in any sense it is clear he has the experience necessary to finish. Monkerhostin, the joint fav. from last year, ran a shit race then and hasn’t been doing that well all season, but might be able to pull something out of the bag before he’s off to the glue factory so may be a nice punt if the odds reflect the gamble.
All-in-all, it’s 4 months away so my tips may be a little off the mark by the time they’re under starter’s orders. Nonetheless, if the ground is fair you have to fancy the favourites. However, backing them in the National is –ev unless you do it soon. So I’d suggest placing a small ante-post bet on Butler’s Cabin, Mr Pointment and Bewleys Berry as soon as possible because, unless they sustain an injury, you can be sure that these horses will be between 10:1 and 7:1 on the day of the race (at the moment they stand at between 14 and 20:1). Closer to the race I’m going to put together a better summary of the expected conditions and my selection, and this year I may even try to put together a tricast. – ship that £25k to me!
ty for reading, gl at the races
Tuesday 8 January 2008
Denman v Kauto Star - Cheltenham Gold Cup 2008
So we’re well into the race season and I’ve decided to start putting together a view on the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup. The race will be run on the 14th of March 2008, however, if you want to get a good price on the favourites you’ll have to take fixed odds before the end of February. I took a real interest to this race after the 26th of December. I was given a tip on Christmas day to get a heap of money on Kauto Star in the King George VI chase at Kempton - a heap of money was necessary because he was a 4:6 fav. Kauto was being raced by Ruby Walsh; his first race after a shoulder injury sustained at Cheltenham earlier in the season. However, I managed to party through the day though and after going to bed at about 8:30am I missed the race which Kauto won by about 10 lengths. What made it worse was my mum had managed to get some money on the horse and seemed very smug in the morning as I stumbled out of bed...
According to Walsh this is the horse of his generation; quite a good endorsement you could say. Better still he’s still on the up and has continually improved throughout the season. Basically, he’s causing a bit of a storm at the moment. So, perhaps it’d be hard not to put your money on him...
(this is Walsh’s interview following the race: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_7160000/newsid_7160600/7160670.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&bbcws=1)
Denman, Kauto’s most closely matched rival and stable mate has also had an incredible season; 11 victories from 12 starts. He is also from Paul Nicholls’ stable and a favourite of Walsh, but for different reasons; Denman doesn’t have Kauto’s flair, he’s a slower horse and hasn’t had the same decisive victories, however, on soft ground Denman should beat any field.
Walsh has not yet chosen which horse to ride in the Gold Cup. His decision will dictate the favourite for the race and will be based on the ground condition. Soft, he’ll be riding Denman, good, he’s ride Kauto.
In my mind, barring any tragic falls, Walsh will be riding the horse that wins in this clash. However, if you place your bet after he’s decided your returns are going to be pitiful. Some of the big bettors from Ireland are already getting their money down on this clash – and some of the biggest action has been on Denman. Why? Well with the odds as they stand, Denman is the best bet simply because his odds are kinder on what is going to be the hardest race to handicap for decades. Some of the older punters are bringing up the famous clash in 1964 between Arkle and Mill House. However, others are comparing it to Arkle vs Flyingbolt – as they were also stable mates – however, that clash never happened due to an injury sustained by Flyingbolt. So, perhaps this will be the most exciting clash in the history of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
To be honest, I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited about a race. I’ve had some great views on outsiders in the Grand National – some of which I’ve pulled off to experienced handicappers amazement, I also cheered Best Mate to victory three times at Cheltenham and had him on my ticket each time, but never before have I seen two of the most brilliant and closely matched horses in the same race, and perhaps I won’t again.
So, what is my tip? This race is just too close; Kauto or Denman WILL win, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind. So I can’t start talking about backing outsiders, because I just can’t see it happening – it won’t happen! So you look at the top two; both seven years old, in my mind the perfect age for this race (stamina and determination combined with experience), they are both in the middle of their best season, they have both won at this distance several times, they are both from, arguably, the best stable, however, only one will have the best jockey...
I think I’d go with my heart on this one. I know Walsh will only choose to ride Denman in the ground is soft. I believe he wants what would be the most talked about victory of his career to be on Kauto, and so, in my humble opinion, Kauto Star is where your money should go, and make sure you take him to win! And after all, you don’t want your money to be on a horse named after a hairbrush...
GL everyone - I'll be putting up my early Grand National predictions later in the week. Bewleys Berry to win - SHIP! SHIP!!
According to Walsh this is the horse of his generation; quite a good endorsement you could say. Better still he’s still on the up and has continually improved throughout the season. Basically, he’s causing a bit of a storm at the moment. So, perhaps it’d be hard not to put your money on him...
(this is Walsh’s interview following the race: http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/sol/newsid_7160000/newsid_7160600/7160670.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&news=1&bbcws=1)
Denman, Kauto’s most closely matched rival and stable mate has also had an incredible season; 11 victories from 12 starts. He is also from Paul Nicholls’ stable and a favourite of Walsh, but for different reasons; Denman doesn’t have Kauto’s flair, he’s a slower horse and hasn’t had the same decisive victories, however, on soft ground Denman should beat any field.
Walsh has not yet chosen which horse to ride in the Gold Cup. His decision will dictate the favourite for the race and will be based on the ground condition. Soft, he’ll be riding Denman, good, he’s ride Kauto.
In my mind, barring any tragic falls, Walsh will be riding the horse that wins in this clash. However, if you place your bet after he’s decided your returns are going to be pitiful. Some of the big bettors from Ireland are already getting their money down on this clash – and some of the biggest action has been on Denman. Why? Well with the odds as they stand, Denman is the best bet simply because his odds are kinder on what is going to be the hardest race to handicap for decades. Some of the older punters are bringing up the famous clash in 1964 between Arkle and Mill House. However, others are comparing it to Arkle vs Flyingbolt – as they were also stable mates – however, that clash never happened due to an injury sustained by Flyingbolt. So, perhaps this will be the most exciting clash in the history of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
To be honest, I don’t think I’ve ever been this excited about a race. I’ve had some great views on outsiders in the Grand National – some of which I’ve pulled off to experienced handicappers amazement, I also cheered Best Mate to victory three times at Cheltenham and had him on my ticket each time, but never before have I seen two of the most brilliant and closely matched horses in the same race, and perhaps I won’t again.
So, what is my tip? This race is just too close; Kauto or Denman WILL win, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind. So I can’t start talking about backing outsiders, because I just can’t see it happening – it won’t happen! So you look at the top two; both seven years old, in my mind the perfect age for this race (stamina and determination combined with experience), they are both in the middle of their best season, they have both won at this distance several times, they are both from, arguably, the best stable, however, only one will have the best jockey...
I think I’d go with my heart on this one. I know Walsh will only choose to ride Denman in the ground is soft. I believe he wants what would be the most talked about victory of his career to be on Kauto, and so, in my humble opinion, Kauto Star is where your money should go, and make sure you take him to win! And after all, you don’t want your money to be on a horse named after a hairbrush...
GL everyone - I'll be putting up my early Grand National predictions later in the week. Bewleys Berry to win - SHIP! SHIP!!
Wednesday 2 January 2008
end of 2007!
I haven’t been playing much and I haven’t been blogging much. However I’ve make about $700-$800 this Christmas through tourneys, sngs, bonuses and rakeback. So I’m feeling quite happy. Bad news is that I’m only up $300 for the term.
So my year. Well I can’t believe it’s only ten months since I put $500 on stars and lost it in about a week and felt absolutely gutted. However, after downswings, much tilting, spewing money at Omaha, near misses in tourneys, 24 hour sessions loaded up to the eyeballs, 15 tabling, chat-box misuse, a thousand threads across the Warwick poker network, $00s on software and website membership I finish 2007 only down $93. And that is including software purchases etc – however does not include $1100 I spent on a monitor – coz that’s more for essay writing – lol.
Basically, I’m fairly pleased with myself. Yes, I appreciate others have down slightly better – such as Kanu and of course the Aba slayer. But I feel I have really gained a fair bit out of poker. I’m so pleased to have learnt to develop my “gallows humour” etc. And I really feel I’m analysing every play I make in a very different way to how I once did. All in all, I feel I’ve gained a lot for my investment of about 400 hours and $93.
So I end the year with a roll of $2833. I had decided to move up to 50/1 when I have $3000 – but I think I’m going to make sure I spend another month at 25/50c before I go anywhere. I’m going to have to get busy with other things if I’m gonna get through this degree with my aim of a 2:1. But anyways, thanks to all those who have read this blog.
Best of luck at the tables in 2008!
ps- have been made an Ace on PTY - how sick am I? anyone know how many points I need to become a "Black Duece"?
So my year. Well I can’t believe it’s only ten months since I put $500 on stars and lost it in about a week and felt absolutely gutted. However, after downswings, much tilting, spewing money at Omaha, near misses in tourneys, 24 hour sessions loaded up to the eyeballs, 15 tabling, chat-box misuse, a thousand threads across the Warwick poker network, $00s on software and website membership I finish 2007 only down $93. And that is including software purchases etc – however does not include $1100 I spent on a monitor – coz that’s more for essay writing – lol.
Basically, I’m fairly pleased with myself. Yes, I appreciate others have down slightly better – such as Kanu and of course the Aba slayer. But I feel I have really gained a fair bit out of poker. I’m so pleased to have learnt to develop my “gallows humour” etc. And I really feel I’m analysing every play I make in a very different way to how I once did. All in all, I feel I’ve gained a lot for my investment of about 400 hours and $93.
So I end the year with a roll of $2833. I had decided to move up to 50/1 when I have $3000 – but I think I’m going to make sure I spend another month at 25/50c before I go anywhere. I’m going to have to get busy with other things if I’m gonna get through this degree with my aim of a 2:1. But anyways, thanks to all those who have read this blog.
Best of luck at the tables in 2008!
ps- have been made an Ace on PTY - how sick am I? anyone know how many points I need to become a "Black Duece"?
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