The Scottish Grand National

The Scottish National, much like the Grand National, is a race that works well with trend analysis. In fact over the years trend bettors have had even more luck in this race than in the GN. A 4+ mile hurdle with a large starting field.

Primarily one should start every race with a look at the handicaps. 7 of the last 10 winner have won this race carrying less than 11-2. This year, this particular trend only removes one horse, Halcon Genelardais. Genelardais has an official rating miles above the other horses in this race and has been given a handicap of 11-12, more than a stone more than any other horse in the race. Therefore, unlike the GN where 10 horses were dragging their bellies under the weight, only Genelardais will have this problem in the Scottish National – and thus can be immediately discounted.

The second trend is form, 90% of winners finished in the top 5 on their last outing and 60% in the top three. As such Butlers Cabin, who failed to finish in the GN carrying a substantial handicap, should not be immediately discounted as he only has the pressure of 10-2 this time out especially as he’s proven himself over this distance. However, no horse that has run in the GN has won the Scottish National in the same season so, for this reason, he’s off my list.

Those who fit the trends are, sadly, the top two on the books, Miko de Beuchene and Old Benny. Which is always going to make this race poor value. An e/w bet on either of these horse works out at almost break-even in the event of a place – and breaking even is bad for the ROI!

This is Scotland, and therefore all trends can be cross-referenced with a pretty good forecast for the ground condition. Soft at best and maybe even heavy is guaranteed almost 100%! However, this trend doesn’t split the two front runners at all; both have multiple wins on all sub-fair going. Nonetheless, this does add ev to the favourites: it’s never a good idea to take short odds on a horse whose not proven on the forecast condition.

The old GN trend runs true in the Scottish National, no horse has won this race without having a good record over 3 miles. Again this doesn’t really define between the two market leaders; none the less Old Benny did win the 4m novice chase at Chelts this season, whilst Miko only managed a 2nd in the 3m chase and made little impression on the winner, Ballyfitz. However, trainers do sometimes (rarely) race a horse in less than suitable conditions at Cheltenham to achieve a favourable handicap for the Nationals. So this is by no means a definitive factor.

Finally, I have listened to a couple of comments (from the Irish contingency) regarding the trainer. Ferdy Murphy trained the winners in 2000, 2005 and 2007 – and as such they’re taking Leading Man. I really wouldn’t want to back him to win, but at 5.5 to place on Betfair this might be a good bet. At least you know that F. Murphy will be training horses to win the race, not to improve their future handicaps through a poor showing.

As everything stands, I’m placing an e/w bet on Old Benny, I will take Miko to place if his odds improve, over the last two days he’s drifted whilst Benny has shortened, so it’s not unreasonable to think that this may continue. Finally, I’m going to take Osmosis to place – he’s not really an outsider, more on the outside of the market leaders where value lurks and I think he’ll put in a performance that should merit a place.

Cliff Notes:
Old Benny – e/w
Osmosis - Place

Stars sucks balls

Decided to play the $50 freeze on Stars this Sunday. Was doing ok, grinding basically, getting close to the money and wanted to chip up.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2430909

When the vil puts in the massive raise pre I put him on a hand 77 to QQ. I admit, I was wrong but wasn’t too unhappy as I have a nice little chance to win a big pot here. When I flop the ace and the queen I’m thinking ship! Ship! – but I remember this is Stars, and remember how much I agreed with Jambon’s post on the WarwickPoker forum on the topic of the Stars turn and river. All it took was one look at the flop to know how it was going to happen, he wasn’t going to hit a king – that’d be too obvious, he was 100% going to get running hearts to make the 1 card flush on me – when I saw the turn heart I knew what the river was going to be.

I hate Stars – the most rigged site on the net!

Poker 5k hands summary, and National Hunt Season reviewed (including ROI)

Okies – this is going to be a combination of poker and ponies. Basically, the National Hunt season has come to end, so I’d first like to say a few words. Well the 2008Grand National was of the best I’ve seen. What made me happiest is, even with the talent that was out there this year, the trends still stayed strong: the winner, who drew away from the pack to claim the race by 5 lengths on the finish straight, was carrying 10 stone 9, was a competent chase horse with wins over the 3 mile mark, was on form this season with 3 2nd places and a win and had won a grade 1 chase of over £15k. Of those in the top 12 of the betting Comply of Die was the only one to tick all the boxes – because Cloudy Lane lost points, in my calculations, due to his young age. Next year – lets hope I can do it again, coz I have to admit I do love this race. Oh, btw, I had 8 horses in that race, Naunton Brook pulled up, McKelvey fell and the othere, well they cam 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Pity I only had Naunton Brook to place – lol.
Ok – well following a loss in February my friend asked me to start collating the data of my wins and losses for the rest of the season. Baring in mind that the 23rd of Feb was a day of big losses for me both at Kempton and FairyHouse (Ire). However, of the £777.95 I bet over the next few weeks I managed to turn a profit of £2.85. Ok – that’s an ROI of 0.366% - ship! Ship!
What have I learnt: There’s been a few times when I’ve allowed myself to get caught up in the action and taken horrible odds on a favourite which were perhaps unadvisable. Kauto Star is my best example – I should have laid off the bet on the day of the Gold Cup, taken the equity on him and backed Denman – I had even mentioned that the ground conditions would determine the race, and they did. At Aintree I took tiny odds on Kauto Star, only a matter of weeks after he’d been defeated in the Gold Cup (and nearly forced to take third by Neptune Colognes) and, weakened from his previous exertion, he made countless mistakes over the flights to finish 2nd (on a photo finish) - however, at 1.56, if you’re backing the horse you have to do so expecting him to take the race absolutely by storm – and Kauto never looked to do that.
I began to rectify these mistakes towards the end of the season. Looking at the disadvantages behind a massive favourite seemed to work well for me – in sum it’s better to make a +ev bet at longer odds than it is to take the “sure thing” at –ev odds. Simple – I know – but that’s easier said than done when you’re chasing losses at the race course.
The final problem with my style was backing races that I didn’t really have a view on. On the day of the Gold Cup I had 4 races which I thought I had handicapped well, however, I backed horses in all 9 races. I had no winners over the whole day, but I would have broken even if I had only backed the horses I had real views on.
And so the poker:
Well, I’ve been trying to make my style a little less break even. Lol. I was fed up of months and months of grinding out tiny profits so I decided to really try to play poker. I took up a 5k hand challenge with my house mate (who could have the larger bb/100 hands). I’ve run at 10.8 tracker bbs/100 hands; much better than before.
I’ve decreased the length of time I play in each session and even leave the tables with a small loss rather than, profit, break even or large loss which was standard before. I’m now happy to stop playing when I’m bored, and I’ll take a 10 min break if I think I’m tilting. I’m also trying to keep the tables to 6 maximum, but I may take this down to 4 whilst I get used to my new HUD layout which is more complicated than the last one.
I know there are still some leaks in my game, and I don’t want to move up during the exam season, so even though I have a roll or $3725 I’m going to stay at $50NL until after my last exams – and even then I want to put in an h-core winning week at $50NL before I jump up.
Anyways – ty for reading
Gl at the tables

Final picks

This year’s National has just been a nightmare to handicap. The problem is that trends suggest that a horse carrying 11.0+ stone is unlikely to win. However, this year’s field is so strong compared to other years that there are 20 horses that will be over this mark! And this includes; Cloudy Lane, Bewleys Berry and Butler’s Cabin from my previous tips. However, with half the field expected to be running with lots of weight on their back perhaps we have to bend this slightly. However, it does mean that I’m going to have to add one horse to my tipping.

I’ve been watching McKelvey for a while now and got a bet down on him a while back. Since then he has been a drifter, which is good news for anyone who wants to get a bet down now. I think he’s been overlooked due to the class of the front runners; however, the fact that he’s carrying 11.0 stone may be enough to give him the advantage on the knackering finish straight (the longest of all English race courses). This horse has won over 3 miles and also won over 4 miles, he’s experienced the GN fences on two previous occasions and he’s won a chase of £45k. The only problem with this horse is that he hasn’t run many races this season; only two, and didn’t win either. However, I was speaking to one of my contacts, an owner of several chase horses (who clearly knows more about handicapping than me); he speculated that his trainers may have raced him in slightly unsuitable races with the view to achieving poor results to reduce his handicap for the National. The ground is likely to be good/ good to soft which I think will suite McKelvey well.

Okay, so what do I think you should do?

As much as I hate to say it, Cloudy Lane is the best horse in this race – I believe he’s the most likely horse to win this year’s GN – however, his odds are horrendous, especially when one considers the quality of his opponents. So if you want to bet on him you have to accept that it’s a –ev decision. TBH – if this horse had been proven over 4 miles I’d take the current odds, but he hasn’t, and with his handicap it’s likely that he’s going to find the last 4 furlongs to a mile too tough. So I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say, “don’t get your money on Cloudy Lane.”

So as everything stands, I think Comply or Die fits the bill for a winner. He’s at 10-9 stone – an advantage over all the horses which out-class him, we know he can win over the distance, he’s having a nice season and he’s had time to rest for this event. So Comply or Die to win – try to get him at around 10.0

As I said before, I think McKelvey is a great horse and the odds make this a very nice e/w bet. Try to get him at no less than 18.0 (this will translate to around 4.5 for the place)

Finally, Naunton Brook, providing he makes to the start line is a great place (TBP) bet opportunity. Don’t go below 11.0 on the place though.

Cliff notes:
Comply or Die – win, McKelvey e/w, Naunton Brook TBP

Tricast bets (exact order of three horses), fortune making odds so it’s fun! You’ll only need to get a quid or two down, and if you win you owe me some Dom Perignion: 1) The horses above in that order, 2) Point Barrow, Mckelvey, Comply or Die

Poker Poker - it's all skill.

Just a quick post to sum up last month’s poker. Well, I got a degree to pass – and I need to do well considering I’m not sure “going pro” would be the correct decision for me. Nonetheless, I have tried to change my game significantly.

No lengthy sessions; be happy to quit when I’m stuck.

Fewer tables – between 5 and 6 I think is optimum for me.

Up the aggression! For too long I’ve played a really tight game, so I’ve decided that had to change. But I’m not simply raising every hand, I’m using the stats to really make decisions on whom to raise, whom to re-raise and also whom to simply flat.

Basically, I’ve decided to change from playing 10-12 tables like an unsuccessful bot, to actually playing thinking poker across 5-6 tables.

The results: well, tbh I haven’t played enough hands to make this a proper sample. I’ve only played 2320 hands. I’m now playing 18.32/ 14.83, so I think there’s still work to be done, I’d like to get up to 19/16 with profits before I move up to NL:$100. I’m attempting to steal 31% of the time.

Profits have been rather sweet: I’ve made $535 over the month, which works out at $97 an hour. I’m winning 21.22 Tracker BBs per 100 hands. What I’m particularly happy with is the fact that I’m winning with many more of my starting hands than before and the hand graph is a steady upward trend with constant small wins rather than just stack sized pots.

I know that in the past I’ve played this many hands in a session and that this is a poor sample. However, I think the change is style as certainly affected my win rate, and I think this bodes well for my game in the future. My roll is just over $3,300 which I think is enough to make the move to NL:$100, but I think I’m going to stay where I am until after the exams and even then try to put in a lot of hands in the week prior to the move. Basically, I don’t want to fuck up the move up, so I’m going to wait until I can do it properly.

In other news – I want to get rid of $224 FT $, I’m prepared to swap for PTY, Stars or Sun. I’ve just been running so horrendously on that site that I think it’s now tilting me whenever I go on it – so I’d rather just sell out of it and call it quits before I do any more money on there.

The Warm-ups to the Grand National

Alrighty – well the horses for the Grand National are being finalised around this point. I’m going to give my selections after I’ve had some time to get a view together. However, there are two big races in the run up and if you want a sure bet – these are for you!

On the March 3rd there is the Totesport Bowl Chase. A few days ago Nicholls announced that Kauto Star was going to be riding in it. The betting went pretty sick following that decision. And Kauto is now around 1.56 on Betfair. TBH the competition is really strong with top runners including; Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and possibly Monets Garden. However, Kauto easily beat Exotic on his last trip in Chelts – and I cannot see him losing this race. The only downside is that his jumping is poor, however, this horse has too much class to be beaten by any of these opponants.

On the 4th there’s the Melling Chase, in this race you have to put your money on Master Minded – although there is going to be some top runners along side him such as Monets Garden, Voy Por Ustedes and Tamarinbleu I’m still pretty sure this is a sure thing. I also believe a good place bet to be Tidal Bay – he has so much speed, and although he makes you sweat every jump, on the flat he more than makes up for it.