Horses: +ev or -ev.......?

Managed to take a bit of flack the other nigh when I claimed that I was a +ev horse bettor. So after making my claims I was I decided to get on the phone to the guy who introduced me to the wonderful world of horse gambling to try and work out my profits and losses over the last few years. Sadly, like all big gamblers, although he was great at remembering the winners he’d picked – the loosing bets seemed to elude him. But we managed to put together a bit of my horse gambling legacy.

I thought I was at least a teenager before I got my first bet down, but he proved me wrong, my first two bets I made in 1998 – it was a family owned horse, and was pretty unknown. So 1998 – I made two bets, Graphic-Equaliser to win in both the Ladbrook Hurdle and the Tote Gold Trophy at 20:1 and 16:1 respectively. – I was betting big with £5 on each race (about 100 times less than my gambling buddy). It couldn’t have gone better, Graphic raced in the Ladbrook Hurdle at 10:1 – so it was lucky we had our bets on fixed odds, and he won by about 5 lengths as I remember. By the time of the Tote Gold he was the 3:1 favourite and we had him at 16:1. So I ended the year a £180 winner – I think the best part was I couldn’t get any bets down myself so I was never able to think “this is easy” and spunk my winnings in the bookies.

The next year Graphic sadly had to hit the sack indefinitely and that was the end of my gambling for 2 years. Then, just before I went off to Spain for a week in Easter my gambling buddy told me he had heard “something” and to try to get a bet down on Papillon to win the Grand National, however, I left without giving him the money for the bet. But then the day of the race came up and I ended up in a restaurant full of ex-pats and in the corner there was a man taking bets, and the best bit was he was taking them on the basis of the odds printed that morning – so I got £5 on Papillon at 33:1. Needless to say the outcome got me hooked – I was up £165.

2001 was fucked up by foot and mouth. I’m not sure why because I swear horses can’t get it. Anyways, the year was dry and I didn’t back a single race. What made it worse was that a little bit of info had come my way about a horse called Best-Mate – and that eyar he would have raced as the favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (but it was cancelled). Next year, however, I got my usual £5 down on Best-Mate and he didn’t disappoint. The Grand National also went well for me as I had my £5 on Bindaree at 30:1 (you gotta love fixed odds). Just under £200 up for the year.

2003 was a nice year as well – we got our money down on Best-Mate as soon as we could find a bookie to take the bet (about 2 and a half months before the race – hahahah) – and yet again he did it. I also made hit 2nd and 3rd with each way shots in the Grand National. By this point, at the fine age of 16, my gambling buddy decided to take off the £5 cap on my bets and I believe I ended this year up around £300-£400 for the horses. Only problem was I was now betting other sports (I had my fake ID) and loosing rather consistently – I didn’t quite appreciate the advantage of inside information – something I don’t have in motor racing and football.

2004 was when I started really gambling the sports hard, and loosing hard-core. I really couldn’t understand why I couldn’t pick winners. But luckily the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the National Were coming up and I “knew” the winners. I had studied the form for the Grand National and I watched as Amberleigh House came in first at 25:1 (again fixed odds, race started at 16:1) to the tune of about £500. And Best-Mate made it his third win in a row in the Cheltenham Gold to the tune of £300. Only problem was how much I had lost that year – which I think mean I was still stuck.

2005 was my dry year. My contacts had dried up as Best-Mate had died at the end of the 2004 season. I had never kept any books before but I was now not able to rely on these big wins to keep my head above water so I stopped betting altogether. I really wanted to pick a winner in the Grand National and I spent days studying the form; I think I backed 4 horses, all to win – among them I had the favourite. Sadly I placed my bets the day before the race, and with no inside info I had him at the rather fukin stupid 8:1 – so yay, I think I made about £40 when I take into account the other 3 losers. Only thing that was good about this year was Boxing Day, my gambling buddy called me from a race meeting he had met up with some “friends from back home” and gave my his forecast for the day – I can’t remember their names, but every horse came in first – the catch was Christmas had just passed and I only got about £10 on each horse – so a day that could have made me £2k only made me about £250.

2006 – I placed a few bets during the year. But they all lost or came up with small wins because I backed the favourite on the day of the race like the average mug. Then the Grand National came along and I got in touch with my gambling buddy to work out a bit of a game plan. He’d been in contact with some of his mates across the sea in Ireland and they were all talking about Numbersixvalverde. I wasn’t too happy backing a horse whose name was too long for the bookies slip, and had only had one real success (the Irish National) – but I decided to go for it anyways. I got him two weeks before the race at about 30:1 which was absolutely sick – especially as I backed him to win. I decided to mix it up a bit that year and I stuck in some horses to place. I even drew up a short list to run tri-caster (this is when you choose 1st, 2nd and 3rd). I had about £150 on this race, by far my biggest ever outgoing on any race meeting. Well – Numbersix didn’t let me down, and I had backed 2nd and 3rd to place. Although I collected £450(ish) from the bookies, what nearly killed me was that I had got a tip on the day of the race which compelled me to change 3rd place on my tri-caster – that change cost me about £20,000.

2007 – lets not talk about that – Silver-Birch was a three-legged donkey who should never have had a chance in perfect conditions – what happened!?!

So anyways, this is my horse betting diary of the last 9 years. I think my wins have definitely come up way over 4 figures. The only problem was that I had too many leaks and was way too happy to try and pick the winners myself. The reason I think I was a +ev horse bettor was mainly because my information often allowed my to place bets several weeks and sometimes months before the race meeting had started. If you ask for fixed odds at this point you run a load of risk, but I you have a good bit of info you can make a killing. Overall I have found that if you bet the favourite, once he is the favourite – you’re making a massive –ev bet. There are few hurdle races where any horse is a good bet at less than 8:1 – and even at these odds you’re a sucker. Betting horses to place never made me much money either and the risk is so much bigger. I think I avoided being a sucker for all these years, but I have to say – unless I start getting the information that I used to I’m probably going to duck out of this world, coz 99.5% of the gambling public are suckers and I don’t think I need to add to that statistic.

I remember meeting a lady in a pub a few months back, and for some reason we got on to this topic, and ended up reminiscing about Best-Mate. She claimed to have made £5k off that horse! – However, she ended up telling me how she’s given up the big betting because her info had dried up; apparently she’d been friends with a few stable boys who knew almost as much a jockeys when it came to the horses conditions but had lost contact over the years. I think the sad fact is, unless you own a horse or have very close contacts with a big player in a syndicate etc it’s very hard to grind out an edge. Without this advantage you just look like a broke poker player; speculating for the rail…