Wednesday 5 November 2008
Monday 20 October 2008
Back to $50NL
Okay – as I endeavour to finish my trip report of Vegas I thought it was perhaps time to give a poker update. Well, since leaving Uni I’ve kept my playing to SNGs and tourneys, and I’ve discovered that I’m pretty bad with MTTs and almost as bad with SNGs. I’d like to say that I assume it’s just luck that’s costing me – and yer I’ve had some rather laughable beats – but hey as my graph begins to look more and more like that of Enron’s profits in their last year of trading I decided that it was perhaps time to give the tourneys a break. So it’s back to 6-max cash.
Well – I’m playing on FT and PTY and playing well below what my roll can handle ($50NL with a $5400 roll) – however, I’m really enjoying it. I’m only playing 4 tables at a time and so far have been having pretty good results. I’m playing 17/13 which is prolly well below optimal, but the FT $50NL has loosened up so much since I last played there, and I have induced a few amusing spews.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347308 – felt pretty happy with my play here. My feelings were that having check called the turn, betting out on the river would tell my opponent that I had the nuts – therefore, checking was really the only option – and it got me some pretty good value from air.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347319 – this hand I have absolutely no idea about – he insta-called my all-in and I really couldn’t believe that I was ahead. Think I played it ok though.
In sum – I’m really enjoying playing cash poker again and hoping to move up to NL$100 in about a month. And at some point I’ll get back to writing up my Vegas posts.
All the best
Well – I’m playing on FT and PTY and playing well below what my roll can handle ($50NL with a $5400 roll) – however, I’m really enjoying it. I’m only playing 4 tables at a time and so far have been having pretty good results. I’m playing 17/13 which is prolly well below optimal, but the FT $50NL has loosened up so much since I last played there, and I have induced a few amusing spews.
1) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347308 – felt pretty happy with my play here. My feelings were that having check called the turn, betting out on the river would tell my opponent that I had the nuts – therefore, checking was really the only option – and it got me some pretty good value from air.
2) http://www.pokerhand.org/?3347319 – this hand I have absolutely no idea about – he insta-called my all-in and I really couldn’t believe that I was ahead. Think I played it ok though.
In sum – I’m really enjoying playing cash poker again and hoping to move up to NL$100 in about a month. And at some point I’ll get back to writing up my Vegas posts.
All the best
Sunday 12 October 2008
Gambling in Vegas - part 2
Reaching Caesars without being sick was an achievement in itself after the previous night’s fun. My poor condition became apparent when I sat down at the tourney I had registered for and found out instead of being the $110 MTT, it was a $65 SNG (with a $15 vig!) Enjoyed joking with the table over my breakfast but only saw one playable hand, which turned out to be my last.
Moved over to the $1/$3 NLH and sat down with $400. Things went a little better, and after a tourist donated $300 to me by showing an inability to fold JJ pre against my KK I was feeling like a pro. Then this happened: UTG call, Ollie (UTG+1) – raises to $15, folds round to UTG who raises to $45 and then begins the ‘I am so weak, I just did that with shit so I will do everything I can to avoid eye contact’. So after checking his stack, about $550, I decide to flat and set-mine against his KK/AA. Flop is Q high, he bets I inadvertently like my lips and prepare to take down a big pot. He shoves to my raise and I table my set, he then tables his set as the ace peels off on the turn. Eeeek – though live poker wasn’t supposed to be rigged... I pick up the last of my chips and mope over to the craps table – the sick tilted anger was much less dangerous at a game of chance...
25 minutes later I had managed to double my day’s losses – I think I was stuck about $650. For someone who used to playing $50nl that’s quite a big loss. The hang-over was really kicking in so I decided to sleep. I woke up at about 9ish to get to my table at Picasso for dinner.
After dinner I felt even worse; I’d slept very little in the last two days, I’d drunk more free booze than I could think about without having to simultaneously quell my urge to projectile vomit and to make matters worse we now had to get to our table at Pure with a painful 1 bottle minimum. My dad’s not a spirit drinker, so I knew I’d be alone battling the $500 bottle of vodka. TBH, of all the evenings this one I remember so little about. I’m used to combating the affects of large quantities of alcohol with equally large quantities of Columbia’s finest export – however, without any trustworthy sources I had to forgo this luxury.
My next memory was of staring into the toilet bowl in our room being reminded of my evening meal course by course...
The next day I decided that it was perhaps unwise to attempt to reduce my losses with any serious gambling. We decided instead to do a bit of sightseeing starting at the Luxor and moving north. I know I was hanging out of my arsehole (and this may have altered my judgement), but I thought that Luxor was perhaps the most unimaginative building outside of the Communist Block...however, I was proven wrong when we moved on to Excalibur. However, after these two letdowns, much of the rest of the strip was as good as I’d expected – I particularly liked the MGM, Caesars, the Venetian, the Hard Rock and the Rio. – all for different reasons that I can’t really be bothered to go into.
Moved over to the $1/$3 NLH and sat down with $400. Things went a little better, and after a tourist donated $300 to me by showing an inability to fold JJ pre against my KK I was feeling like a pro. Then this happened: UTG call, Ollie (UTG+1) – raises to $15, folds round to UTG who raises to $45 and then begins the ‘I am so weak, I just did that with shit so I will do everything I can to avoid eye contact’. So after checking his stack, about $550, I decide to flat and set-mine against his KK/AA. Flop is Q high, he bets I inadvertently like my lips and prepare to take down a big pot. He shoves to my raise and I table my set, he then tables his set as the ace peels off on the turn. Eeeek – though live poker wasn’t supposed to be rigged... I pick up the last of my chips and mope over to the craps table – the sick tilted anger was much less dangerous at a game of chance...
25 minutes later I had managed to double my day’s losses – I think I was stuck about $650. For someone who used to playing $50nl that’s quite a big loss. The hang-over was really kicking in so I decided to sleep. I woke up at about 9ish to get to my table at Picasso for dinner.
After dinner I felt even worse; I’d slept very little in the last two days, I’d drunk more free booze than I could think about without having to simultaneously quell my urge to projectile vomit and to make matters worse we now had to get to our table at Pure with a painful 1 bottle minimum. My dad’s not a spirit drinker, so I knew I’d be alone battling the $500 bottle of vodka. TBH, of all the evenings this one I remember so little about. I’m used to combating the affects of large quantities of alcohol with equally large quantities of Columbia’s finest export – however, without any trustworthy sources I had to forgo this luxury.
My next memory was of staring into the toilet bowl in our room being reminded of my evening meal course by course...
The next day I decided that it was perhaps unwise to attempt to reduce my losses with any serious gambling. We decided instead to do a bit of sightseeing starting at the Luxor and moving north. I know I was hanging out of my arsehole (and this may have altered my judgement), but I thought that Luxor was perhaps the most unimaginative building outside of the Communist Block...however, I was proven wrong when we moved on to Excalibur. However, after these two letdowns, much of the rest of the strip was as good as I’d expected – I particularly liked the MGM, Caesars, the Venetian, the Hard Rock and the Rio. – all for different reasons that I can’t really be bothered to go into.
Monday 15 September 2008
Gamblin' in Vegas (part1)
Okies – so felt I should try to put my Vegas memories onto the blog – and try to get back into writing my blog –as much for the benefit of my small readership as for my own benefit; there’s no better way to try to get things straight in your head than to write them down; re-read; edit; rephrase etc.
So Vegas – well we (my dad and I) actually flew to LA (wanted to fly business class for free and only have contacts in BA who don’t fly to Vegas) flight was full so I had to endure nearly 12 hours with a kid jabbing his elbow into my ribs, and some tall guy in front whose seat was so far back he may as well of just nestled his head in my crotch. After a shit flight I made a mental note that that was the last bit of cash saving I was doing for the holiday and upgraded the Pontiac to a new Cady – turned out to be a good choice coz America is fukin’ big and a ‘short’ journey is like 7 hours!
The first stop was Palm Springs; the spring break destination. However, as it was totally out of season we were surrounded by Saga-style holiday makers; hence the pics on facebook of me enjoying drinks with perhaps the youngest woman I could find – a retired lawyer from in her 40s.
So day 2 – after the Joshua Tree National Park (an excursion that added about 6 hours to the journey) I pulled the Cady up outside the Bellagio – clearly outclassed by the two Rollers, the Bentley and the prick in the Merc AMG next to me who won the battle for the first bellboy’s attention. However, all was cool when we finally made it too the room and opened our curtains revealing our 30th floor panoramic view of the fountains and the strip.
There was no time to admire the view – the wedge of notes in my pocket was burning through the trouser leg and I needed to find a machine/croupier to give them too. At this point I should mention that dad’s biggest ever gamble (other than his marriages – clearly costly punts) was about £20 on the ponies, so I had my work cut out to render him a degenerate in four nights. A man of such wisdom needed to be started off lightly; $10 in the 50c a hand video poker seemed a good choice – and the free cocktail worth $14 seemed to convince him of the value of his first investment. 4 casinos later he was up quite nicely off the video poker – something that became fully apparent with the bottle of Dom ’98 that arrived with sushi at Yellow Tail.
Following the meal it was off the Rio for some single-deck black jack; a game with a high level of etiquette and protocol that neither of us understood or made any real attempt to learn as the casino sustained its onslaught of free cocktails. Drunken and flush with black and green chips we headed up to the voodoo lounge. 50 floors above the casino we met a Vegas resident; Nicole, a stripper/escort from Spearmint Rhinos. After refusing her pleas to join her at Spearmint’s for a drink we returned to the Casino floor for some more blackjack. After which, my semi converted father went to bed and I headed off to Caesars Palace for some poker.
9:30am: drunk and confused I wandered lost through the Bellagio casino floor. After a night cap I managed to catch a few hours sleep before I awoke with the mother of all hangovers but with a profit! I had broken the cardinal rule; got drunk in Vegas and gone gambling – but I had been the winner. Well if I could do it pissed, then I could do it sober - so it was back to Caesars poker room for breakfast.
So Vegas – well we (my dad and I) actually flew to LA (wanted to fly business class for free and only have contacts in BA who don’t fly to Vegas) flight was full so I had to endure nearly 12 hours with a kid jabbing his elbow into my ribs, and some tall guy in front whose seat was so far back he may as well of just nestled his head in my crotch. After a shit flight I made a mental note that that was the last bit of cash saving I was doing for the holiday and upgraded the Pontiac to a new Cady – turned out to be a good choice coz America is fukin’ big and a ‘short’ journey is like 7 hours!
The first stop was Palm Springs; the spring break destination. However, as it was totally out of season we were surrounded by Saga-style holiday makers; hence the pics on facebook of me enjoying drinks with perhaps the youngest woman I could find – a retired lawyer from in her 40s.
So day 2 – after the Joshua Tree National Park (an excursion that added about 6 hours to the journey) I pulled the Cady up outside the Bellagio – clearly outclassed by the two Rollers, the Bentley and the prick in the Merc AMG next to me who won the battle for the first bellboy’s attention. However, all was cool when we finally made it too the room and opened our curtains revealing our 30th floor panoramic view of the fountains and the strip.
There was no time to admire the view – the wedge of notes in my pocket was burning through the trouser leg and I needed to find a machine/croupier to give them too. At this point I should mention that dad’s biggest ever gamble (other than his marriages – clearly costly punts) was about £20 on the ponies, so I had my work cut out to render him a degenerate in four nights. A man of such wisdom needed to be started off lightly; $10 in the 50c a hand video poker seemed a good choice – and the free cocktail worth $14 seemed to convince him of the value of his first investment. 4 casinos later he was up quite nicely off the video poker – something that became fully apparent with the bottle of Dom ’98 that arrived with sushi at Yellow Tail.
Following the meal it was off the Rio for some single-deck black jack; a game with a high level of etiquette and protocol that neither of us understood or made any real attempt to learn as the casino sustained its onslaught of free cocktails. Drunken and flush with black and green chips we headed up to the voodoo lounge. 50 floors above the casino we met a Vegas resident; Nicole, a stripper/escort from Spearmint Rhinos. After refusing her pleas to join her at Spearmint’s for a drink we returned to the Casino floor for some more blackjack. After which, my semi converted father went to bed and I headed off to Caesars Palace for some poker.
9:30am: drunk and confused I wandered lost through the Bellagio casino floor. After a night cap I managed to catch a few hours sleep before I awoke with the mother of all hangovers but with a profit! I had broken the cardinal rule; got drunk in Vegas and gone gambling – but I had been the winner. Well if I could do it pissed, then I could do it sober - so it was back to Caesars poker room for breakfast.
Wednesday 16 April 2008
The Scottish Grand National
The Scottish National, much like the Grand National, is a race that works well with trend analysis. In fact over the years trend bettors have had even more luck in this race than in the GN. A 4+ mile hurdle with a large starting field.
Primarily one should start every race with a look at the handicaps. 7 of the last 10 winner have won this race carrying less than 11-2. This year, this particular trend only removes one horse, Halcon Genelardais. Genelardais has an official rating miles above the other horses in this race and has been given a handicap of 11-12, more than a stone more than any other horse in the race. Therefore, unlike the GN where 10 horses were dragging their bellies under the weight, only Genelardais will have this problem in the Scottish National – and thus can be immediately discounted.
The second trend is form, 90% of winners finished in the top 5 on their last outing and 60% in the top three. As such Butlers Cabin, who failed to finish in the GN carrying a substantial handicap, should not be immediately discounted as he only has the pressure of 10-2 this time out especially as he’s proven himself over this distance. However, no horse that has run in the GN has won the Scottish National in the same season so, for this reason, he’s off my list.
Those who fit the trends are, sadly, the top two on the books, Miko de Beuchene and Old Benny. Which is always going to make this race poor value. An e/w bet on either of these horse works out at almost break-even in the event of a place – and breaking even is bad for the ROI!
This is Scotland, and therefore all trends can be cross-referenced with a pretty good forecast for the ground condition. Soft at best and maybe even heavy is guaranteed almost 100%! However, this trend doesn’t split the two front runners at all; both have multiple wins on all sub-fair going. Nonetheless, this does add ev to the favourites: it’s never a good idea to take short odds on a horse whose not proven on the forecast condition.
The old GN trend runs true in the Scottish National, no horse has won this race without having a good record over 3 miles. Again this doesn’t really define between the two market leaders; none the less Old Benny did win the 4m novice chase at Chelts this season, whilst Miko only managed a 2nd in the 3m chase and made little impression on the winner, Ballyfitz. However, trainers do sometimes (rarely) race a horse in less than suitable conditions at Cheltenham to achieve a favourable handicap for the Nationals. So this is by no means a definitive factor.
Finally, I have listened to a couple of comments (from the Irish contingency) regarding the trainer. Ferdy Murphy trained the winners in 2000, 2005 and 2007 – and as such they’re taking Leading Man. I really wouldn’t want to back him to win, but at 5.5 to place on Betfair this might be a good bet. At least you know that F. Murphy will be training horses to win the race, not to improve their future handicaps through a poor showing.
As everything stands, I’m placing an e/w bet on Old Benny, I will take Miko to place if his odds improve, over the last two days he’s drifted whilst Benny has shortened, so it’s not unreasonable to think that this may continue. Finally, I’m going to take Osmosis to place – he’s not really an outsider, more on the outside of the market leaders where value lurks and I think he’ll put in a performance that should merit a place.
Cliff Notes:
Old Benny – e/w
Osmosis - Place
Sunday 13 April 2008
Stars sucks balls
Decided to play the $50 freeze on Stars this Sunday. Was doing ok, grinding basically, getting close to the money and wanted to chip up.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2430909
When the vil puts in the massive raise pre I put him on a hand 77 to QQ. I admit, I was wrong but wasn’t too unhappy as I have a nice little chance to win a big pot here. When I flop the ace and the queen I’m thinking ship! Ship! – but I remember this is Stars, and remember how much I agreed with Jambon’s post on the WarwickPoker forum on the topic of the Stars turn and river. All it took was one look at the flop to know how it was going to happen, he wasn’t going to hit a king – that’d be too obvious, he was 100% going to get running hearts to make the 1 card flush on me – when I saw the turn heart I knew what the river was going to be.
I hate Stars – the most rigged site on the net!
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2430909
When the vil puts in the massive raise pre I put him on a hand 77 to QQ. I admit, I was wrong but wasn’t too unhappy as I have a nice little chance to win a big pot here. When I flop the ace and the queen I’m thinking ship! Ship! – but I remember this is Stars, and remember how much I agreed with Jambon’s post on the WarwickPoker forum on the topic of the Stars turn and river. All it took was one look at the flop to know how it was going to happen, he wasn’t going to hit a king – that’d be too obvious, he was 100% going to get running hearts to make the 1 card flush on me – when I saw the turn heart I knew what the river was going to be.
I hate Stars – the most rigged site on the net!
Thursday 10 April 2008
Poker 5k hands summary, and National Hunt Season reviewed (including ROI)
Okies – this is going to be a combination of poker and ponies. Basically, the National Hunt season has come to end, so I’d first like to say a few words. Well the 2008Grand National was of the best I’ve seen. What made me happiest is, even with the talent that was out there this year, the trends still stayed strong: the winner, who drew away from the pack to claim the race by 5 lengths on the finish straight, was carrying 10 stone 9, was a competent chase horse with wins over the 3 mile mark, was on form this season with 3 2nd places and a win and had won a grade 1 chase of over £15k. Of those in the top 12 of the betting Comply of Die was the only one to tick all the boxes – because Cloudy Lane lost points, in my calculations, due to his young age. Next year – lets hope I can do it again, coz I have to admit I do love this race. Oh, btw, I had 8 horses in that race, Naunton Brook pulled up, McKelvey fell and the othere, well they cam 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Pity I only had Naunton Brook to place – lol.
Ok – well following a loss in February my friend asked me to start collating the data of my wins and losses for the rest of the season. Baring in mind that the 23rd of Feb was a day of big losses for me both at Kempton and FairyHouse (Ire). However, of the £777.95 I bet over the next few weeks I managed to turn a profit of £2.85. Ok – that’s an ROI of 0.366% - ship! Ship!
What have I learnt: There’s been a few times when I’ve allowed myself to get caught up in the action and taken horrible odds on a favourite which were perhaps unadvisable. Kauto Star is my best example – I should have laid off the bet on the day of the Gold Cup, taken the equity on him and backed Denman – I had even mentioned that the ground conditions would determine the race, and they did. At Aintree I took tiny odds on Kauto Star, only a matter of weeks after he’d been defeated in the Gold Cup (and nearly forced to take third by Neptune Colognes) and, weakened from his previous exertion, he made countless mistakes over the flights to finish 2nd (on a photo finish) - however, at 1.56, if you’re backing the horse you have to do so expecting him to take the race absolutely by storm – and Kauto never looked to do that.
I began to rectify these mistakes towards the end of the season. Looking at the disadvantages behind a massive favourite seemed to work well for me – in sum it’s better to make a +ev bet at longer odds than it is to take the “sure thing” at –ev odds. Simple – I know – but that’s easier said than done when you’re chasing losses at the race course.
The final problem with my style was backing races that I didn’t really have a view on. On the day of the Gold Cup I had 4 races which I thought I had handicapped well, however, I backed horses in all 9 races. I had no winners over the whole day, but I would have broken even if I had only backed the horses I had real views on.
And so the poker:
Well, I’ve been trying to make my style a little less break even. Lol. I was fed up of months and months of grinding out tiny profits so I decided to really try to play poker. I took up a 5k hand challenge with my house mate (who could have the larger bb/100 hands). I’ve run at 10.8 tracker bbs/100 hands; much better than before.
I’ve decreased the length of time I play in each session and even leave the tables with a small loss rather than, profit, break even or large loss which was standard before. I’m now happy to stop playing when I’m bored, and I’ll take a 10 min break if I think I’m tilting. I’m also trying to keep the tables to 6 maximum, but I may take this down to 4 whilst I get used to my new HUD layout which is more complicated than the last one.
I know there are still some leaks in my game, and I don’t want to move up during the exam season, so even though I have a roll or $3725 I’m going to stay at $50NL until after my last exams – and even then I want to put in an h-core winning week at $50NL before I jump up.
Anyways – ty for reading
Gl at the tables
Ok – well following a loss in February my friend asked me to start collating the data of my wins and losses for the rest of the season. Baring in mind that the 23rd of Feb was a day of big losses for me both at Kempton and FairyHouse (Ire). However, of the £777.95 I bet over the next few weeks I managed to turn a profit of £2.85. Ok – that’s an ROI of 0.366% - ship! Ship!
What have I learnt: There’s been a few times when I’ve allowed myself to get caught up in the action and taken horrible odds on a favourite which were perhaps unadvisable. Kauto Star is my best example – I should have laid off the bet on the day of the Gold Cup, taken the equity on him and backed Denman – I had even mentioned that the ground conditions would determine the race, and they did. At Aintree I took tiny odds on Kauto Star, only a matter of weeks after he’d been defeated in the Gold Cup (and nearly forced to take third by Neptune Colognes) and, weakened from his previous exertion, he made countless mistakes over the flights to finish 2nd (on a photo finish) - however, at 1.56, if you’re backing the horse you have to do so expecting him to take the race absolutely by storm – and Kauto never looked to do that.
I began to rectify these mistakes towards the end of the season. Looking at the disadvantages behind a massive favourite seemed to work well for me – in sum it’s better to make a +ev bet at longer odds than it is to take the “sure thing” at –ev odds. Simple – I know – but that’s easier said than done when you’re chasing losses at the race course.
The final problem with my style was backing races that I didn’t really have a view on. On the day of the Gold Cup I had 4 races which I thought I had handicapped well, however, I backed horses in all 9 races. I had no winners over the whole day, but I would have broken even if I had only backed the horses I had real views on.
And so the poker:
Well, I’ve been trying to make my style a little less break even. Lol. I was fed up of months and months of grinding out tiny profits so I decided to really try to play poker. I took up a 5k hand challenge with my house mate (who could have the larger bb/100 hands). I’ve run at 10.8 tracker bbs/100 hands; much better than before.
I’ve decreased the length of time I play in each session and even leave the tables with a small loss rather than, profit, break even or large loss which was standard before. I’m now happy to stop playing when I’m bored, and I’ll take a 10 min break if I think I’m tilting. I’m also trying to keep the tables to 6 maximum, but I may take this down to 4 whilst I get used to my new HUD layout which is more complicated than the last one.
I know there are still some leaks in my game, and I don’t want to move up during the exam season, so even though I have a roll or $3725 I’m going to stay at $50NL until after my last exams – and even then I want to put in an h-core winning week at $50NL before I jump up.
Anyways – ty for reading
Gl at the tables
Friday 4 April 2008
Final picks
This year’s National has just been a nightmare to handicap. The problem is that trends suggest that a horse carrying 11.0+ stone is unlikely to win. However, this year’s field is so strong compared to other years that there are 20 horses that will be over this mark! And this includes; Cloudy Lane, Bewleys Berry and Butler’s Cabin from my previous tips. However, with half the field expected to be running with lots of weight on their back perhaps we have to bend this slightly. However, it does mean that I’m going to have to add one horse to my tipping.
I’ve been watching McKelvey for a while now and got a bet down on him a while back. Since then he has been a drifter, which is good news for anyone who wants to get a bet down now. I think he’s been overlooked due to the class of the front runners; however, the fact that he’s carrying 11.0 stone may be enough to give him the advantage on the knackering finish straight (the longest of all English race courses). This horse has won over 3 miles and also won over 4 miles, he’s experienced the GN fences on two previous occasions and he’s won a chase of £45k. The only problem with this horse is that he hasn’t run many races this season; only two, and didn’t win either. However, I was speaking to one of my contacts, an owner of several chase horses (who clearly knows more about handicapping than me); he speculated that his trainers may have raced him in slightly unsuitable races with the view to achieving poor results to reduce his handicap for the National. The ground is likely to be good/ good to soft which I think will suite McKelvey well.
Okay, so what do I think you should do?
As much as I hate to say it, Cloudy Lane is the best horse in this race – I believe he’s the most likely horse to win this year’s GN – however, his odds are horrendous, especially when one considers the quality of his opponents. So if you want to bet on him you have to accept that it’s a –ev decision. TBH – if this horse had been proven over 4 miles I’d take the current odds, but he hasn’t, and with his handicap it’s likely that he’s going to find the last 4 furlongs to a mile too tough. So I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say, “don’t get your money on Cloudy Lane.”
So as everything stands, I think Comply or Die fits the bill for a winner. He’s at 10-9 stone – an advantage over all the horses which out-class him, we know he can win over the distance, he’s having a nice season and he’s had time to rest for this event. So Comply or Die to win – try to get him at around 10.0
As I said before, I think McKelvey is a great horse and the odds make this a very nice e/w bet. Try to get him at no less than 18.0 (this will translate to around 4.5 for the place)
Finally, Naunton Brook, providing he makes to the start line is a great place (TBP) bet opportunity. Don’t go below 11.0 on the place though.
Cliff notes:
Comply or Die – win, McKelvey e/w, Naunton Brook TBP
Tricast bets (exact order of three horses), fortune making odds so it’s fun! You’ll only need to get a quid or two down, and if you win you owe me some Dom Perignion: 1) The horses above in that order, 2) Point Barrow, Mckelvey, Comply or Die
I’ve been watching McKelvey for a while now and got a bet down on him a while back. Since then he has been a drifter, which is good news for anyone who wants to get a bet down now. I think he’s been overlooked due to the class of the front runners; however, the fact that he’s carrying 11.0 stone may be enough to give him the advantage on the knackering finish straight (the longest of all English race courses). This horse has won over 3 miles and also won over 4 miles, he’s experienced the GN fences on two previous occasions and he’s won a chase of £45k. The only problem with this horse is that he hasn’t run many races this season; only two, and didn’t win either. However, I was speaking to one of my contacts, an owner of several chase horses (who clearly knows more about handicapping than me); he speculated that his trainers may have raced him in slightly unsuitable races with the view to achieving poor results to reduce his handicap for the National. The ground is likely to be good/ good to soft which I think will suite McKelvey well.
Okay, so what do I think you should do?
As much as I hate to say it, Cloudy Lane is the best horse in this race – I believe he’s the most likely horse to win this year’s GN – however, his odds are horrendous, especially when one considers the quality of his opponents. So if you want to bet on him you have to accept that it’s a –ev decision. TBH – if this horse had been proven over 4 miles I’d take the current odds, but he hasn’t, and with his handicap it’s likely that he’s going to find the last 4 furlongs to a mile too tough. So I’m going to put my neck on the line here and say, “don’t get your money on Cloudy Lane.”
So as everything stands, I think Comply or Die fits the bill for a winner. He’s at 10-9 stone – an advantage over all the horses which out-class him, we know he can win over the distance, he’s having a nice season and he’s had time to rest for this event. So Comply or Die to win – try to get him at around 10.0
As I said before, I think McKelvey is a great horse and the odds make this a very nice e/w bet. Try to get him at no less than 18.0 (this will translate to around 4.5 for the place)
Finally, Naunton Brook, providing he makes to the start line is a great place (TBP) bet opportunity. Don’t go below 11.0 on the place though.
Cliff notes:
Comply or Die – win, McKelvey e/w, Naunton Brook TBP
Tricast bets (exact order of three horses), fortune making odds so it’s fun! You’ll only need to get a quid or two down, and if you win you owe me some Dom Perignion: 1) The horses above in that order, 2) Point Barrow, Mckelvey, Comply or Die
Tuesday 1 April 2008
Poker Poker - it's all skill.
Just a quick post to sum up last month’s poker. Well, I got a degree to pass – and I need to do well considering I’m not sure “going pro” would be the correct decision for me. Nonetheless, I have tried to change my game significantly.
No lengthy sessions; be happy to quit when I’m stuck.
Fewer tables – between 5 and 6 I think is optimum for me.
Up the aggression! For too long I’ve played a really tight game, so I’ve decided that had to change. But I’m not simply raising every hand, I’m using the stats to really make decisions on whom to raise, whom to re-raise and also whom to simply flat.
Basically, I’ve decided to change from playing 10-12 tables like an unsuccessful bot, to actually playing thinking poker across 5-6 tables.
The results: well, tbh I haven’t played enough hands to make this a proper sample. I’ve only played 2320 hands. I’m now playing 18.32/ 14.83, so I think there’s still work to be done, I’d like to get up to 19/16 with profits before I move up to NL:$100. I’m attempting to steal 31% of the time.
Profits have been rather sweet: I’ve made $535 over the month, which works out at $97 an hour. I’m winning 21.22 Tracker BBs per 100 hands. What I’m particularly happy with is the fact that I’m winning with many more of my starting hands than before and the hand graph is a steady upward trend with constant small wins rather than just stack sized pots.
I know that in the past I’ve played this many hands in a session and that this is a poor sample. However, I think the change is style as certainly affected my win rate, and I think this bodes well for my game in the future. My roll is just over $3,300 which I think is enough to make the move to NL:$100, but I think I’m going to stay where I am until after the exams and even then try to put in a lot of hands in the week prior to the move. Basically, I don’t want to fuck up the move up, so I’m going to wait until I can do it properly.
In other news – I want to get rid of $224 FT $, I’m prepared to swap for PTY, Stars or Sun. I’ve just been running so horrendously on that site that I think it’s now tilting me whenever I go on it – so I’d rather just sell out of it and call it quits before I do any more money on there.
No lengthy sessions; be happy to quit when I’m stuck.
Fewer tables – between 5 and 6 I think is optimum for me.
Up the aggression! For too long I’ve played a really tight game, so I’ve decided that had to change. But I’m not simply raising every hand, I’m using the stats to really make decisions on whom to raise, whom to re-raise and also whom to simply flat.
Basically, I’ve decided to change from playing 10-12 tables like an unsuccessful bot, to actually playing thinking poker across 5-6 tables.
The results: well, tbh I haven’t played enough hands to make this a proper sample. I’ve only played 2320 hands. I’m now playing 18.32/ 14.83, so I think there’s still work to be done, I’d like to get up to 19/16 with profits before I move up to NL:$100. I’m attempting to steal 31% of the time.
Profits have been rather sweet: I’ve made $535 over the month, which works out at $97 an hour. I’m winning 21.22 Tracker BBs per 100 hands. What I’m particularly happy with is the fact that I’m winning with many more of my starting hands than before and the hand graph is a steady upward trend with constant small wins rather than just stack sized pots.
I know that in the past I’ve played this many hands in a session and that this is a poor sample. However, I think the change is style as certainly affected my win rate, and I think this bodes well for my game in the future. My roll is just over $3,300 which I think is enough to make the move to NL:$100, but I think I’m going to stay where I am until after the exams and even then try to put in a lot of hands in the week prior to the move. Basically, I don’t want to fuck up the move up, so I’m going to wait until I can do it properly.
In other news – I want to get rid of $224 FT $, I’m prepared to swap for PTY, Stars or Sun. I’ve just been running so horrendously on that site that I think it’s now tilting me whenever I go on it – so I’d rather just sell out of it and call it quits before I do any more money on there.
The Warm-ups to the Grand National
Alrighty – well the horses for the Grand National are being finalised around this point. I’m going to give my selections after I’ve had some time to get a view together. However, there are two big races in the run up and if you want a sure bet – these are for you!
On the March 3rd there is the Totesport Bowl Chase. A few days ago Nicholls announced that Kauto Star was going to be riding in it. The betting went pretty sick following that decision. And Kauto is now around 1.56 on Betfair. TBH the competition is really strong with top runners including; Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and possibly Monets Garden. However, Kauto easily beat Exotic on his last trip in Chelts – and I cannot see him losing this race. The only downside is that his jumping is poor, however, this horse has too much class to be beaten by any of these opponants.
On the 4th there’s the Melling Chase, in this race you have to put your money on Master Minded – although there is going to be some top runners along side him such as Monets Garden, Voy Por Ustedes and Tamarinbleu I’m still pretty sure this is a sure thing. I also believe a good place bet to be Tidal Bay – he has so much speed, and although he makes you sweat every jump, on the flat he more than makes up for it.
On the March 3rd there is the Totesport Bowl Chase. A few days ago Nicholls announced that Kauto Star was going to be riding in it. The betting went pretty sick following that decision. And Kauto is now around 1.56 on Betfair. TBH the competition is really strong with top runners including; Our Vic, Exotic Dancer and possibly Monets Garden. However, Kauto easily beat Exotic on his last trip in Chelts – and I cannot see him losing this race. The only downside is that his jumping is poor, however, this horse has too much class to be beaten by any of these opponants.
On the 4th there’s the Melling Chase, in this race you have to put your money on Master Minded – although there is going to be some top runners along side him such as Monets Garden, Voy Por Ustedes and Tamarinbleu I’m still pretty sure this is a sure thing. I also believe a good place bet to be Tidal Bay – he has so much speed, and although he makes you sweat every jump, on the flat he more than makes up for it.
Thursday 27 March 2008
GN - my top 6
Okay – well I’ve been looking at the GN form and I’m going to ear-mark 6 horses today which I think need to be watched. And a couple that you should avoid!
I really wanted to avoid tipping the fav in this race. He’s around the 7.0 mark with the bookmakers and obviously this makes it a –ev bet. But you can’t blame the bookies, this horse is on form: he’s won 3 out of 4 races this season and earned his owners £62,000. His GN challenge is a serious one; he hasn’t raced for 35 days. In terms of matching my criteria, he’s won 5 chases over 3 miles, won a chase of £33k (this season), he’s not lost his mount this season and he hasn’t been crushed by the handicappers. However, at 6.0 I want this horse to be perfect, and there are still some issues: he’s never won over 4 miles, worse still he’s never raced over 4 miles, and he’s never had a trip over the GN fences. – so does he have the staying power?
Comply or Die: at 9 years old this horse has 14 chase runs under his belt. This season isn’t going too badly with one win in 4 races and a second place finish. He’s earned his owners £32k so far this season which included a £30k win! However, why I really fancy this horse is because he’s proven his abilities over 4 miles. Although he’s never been over the GN fences I’m happy with backing this springer hard and fast!
Bewleys Berry: I really like this horse. His season hasn’t been great with only a second place achieved out of two races, however, this has meant that his handicap is small (11-0). Okay, so this horse almost fits the bill, but he’s getting a little old imho and he’s never had a chase win of over £3k – but he’s sort of got the Aintree-factor. As I have previously mentioned, some horses run very well on certain courses, and Berry loves Aintree. I really believe that if the ground is good this horse has a good chance of running a great race – whether he has what it takes to be first past the post, I’m not sure – I would not take this horse at less than 15.0.
Snowy Morning: This horse is perhaps a little young to be a GN champion at 8 years. And although he had a good start to the season it did trail off a little towards the end. However, he’s won a chase of £21k, he’s on ok form this season with prize money totalling £34k and he’s had that all-important win over 3 miles. However, he has lost his mount once this season and perhaps isn’t best suited to the GN course.
Butlers Cabin: this horse I tipped on my blog in January. However, since backing him he’s been a disappointment and his odds have drifted accordingly. He’s proven over both 3 and 4 mile distances and has won a £95k chase before. However – this season has been a disappointment and he’s only pulled in £9k for his owners. He’s had 49 days to prepare for this race – will it be enough?
My outsider is Naunton Brook. For a 50/1 shot he’s a pretty decent horse. He really fits the bill tbh. In his 9 years he’s run in 25 chases, won 4 times over 3 miles and once over 4 miles, he also has had experience over the GN fences. This season he’s claimed £52k in prize money and has had 1 win in his six races. His biggest ever chase win is £26k and he’s only ever had one fall. Really, from this I could almost be describing a top 8 horse. However, the reasoning behind his position is his official rating of 140. OR’s are drawn up as a way of comparing horses against one and other and are based not on wins but on which horses they have beaten. Basically, Brook has never faced strong competition – so how will he fare against the field on April 5th.
You have to love the nerve of the bookies during the Grand National – Hedgehunter is now 12 years old, carrying a decent handicap (for some stupid reason) and is priced at 16.0! Betting on Hedgehunter to win the GN is like betting Linford Christie to win the 110m hurdle in Beijing this year. A massive mover in the markets has been King John’s Castle – I noticed him dropping from three figures so I took him at 50/1 and was pleased when I saw him around the 15.0 mark in the bookies – however, examining this horses form, I think 50/1 is a fair bet: Yes he’s had a good season claiming £33k in prize money with 3 second place finished and a first in 4 races – however, he’s never won over 2.5 miles! In my opinion, this horse is going to take the race by storm until the three mile mark and from then on he’ll be lucky to finish let alone place.
I really wanted to avoid tipping the fav in this race. He’s around the 7.0 mark with the bookmakers and obviously this makes it a –ev bet. But you can’t blame the bookies, this horse is on form: he’s won 3 out of 4 races this season and earned his owners £62,000. His GN challenge is a serious one; he hasn’t raced for 35 days. In terms of matching my criteria, he’s won 5 chases over 3 miles, won a chase of £33k (this season), he’s not lost his mount this season and he hasn’t been crushed by the handicappers. However, at 6.0 I want this horse to be perfect, and there are still some issues: he’s never won over 4 miles, worse still he’s never raced over 4 miles, and he’s never had a trip over the GN fences. – so does he have the staying power?
Comply or Die: at 9 years old this horse has 14 chase runs under his belt. This season isn’t going too badly with one win in 4 races and a second place finish. He’s earned his owners £32k so far this season which included a £30k win! However, why I really fancy this horse is because he’s proven his abilities over 4 miles. Although he’s never been over the GN fences I’m happy with backing this springer hard and fast!
Bewleys Berry: I really like this horse. His season hasn’t been great with only a second place achieved out of two races, however, this has meant that his handicap is small (11-0). Okay, so this horse almost fits the bill, but he’s getting a little old imho and he’s never had a chase win of over £3k – but he’s sort of got the Aintree-factor. As I have previously mentioned, some horses run very well on certain courses, and Berry loves Aintree. I really believe that if the ground is good this horse has a good chance of running a great race – whether he has what it takes to be first past the post, I’m not sure – I would not take this horse at less than 15.0.
Snowy Morning: This horse is perhaps a little young to be a GN champion at 8 years. And although he had a good start to the season it did trail off a little towards the end. However, he’s won a chase of £21k, he’s on ok form this season with prize money totalling £34k and he’s had that all-important win over 3 miles. However, he has lost his mount once this season and perhaps isn’t best suited to the GN course.
Butlers Cabin: this horse I tipped on my blog in January. However, since backing him he’s been a disappointment and his odds have drifted accordingly. He’s proven over both 3 and 4 mile distances and has won a £95k chase before. However – this season has been a disappointment and he’s only pulled in £9k for his owners. He’s had 49 days to prepare for this race – will it be enough?
My outsider is Naunton Brook. For a 50/1 shot he’s a pretty decent horse. He really fits the bill tbh. In his 9 years he’s run in 25 chases, won 4 times over 3 miles and once over 4 miles, he also has had experience over the GN fences. This season he’s claimed £52k in prize money and has had 1 win in his six races. His biggest ever chase win is £26k and he’s only ever had one fall. Really, from this I could almost be describing a top 8 horse. However, the reasoning behind his position is his official rating of 140. OR’s are drawn up as a way of comparing horses against one and other and are based not on wins but on which horses they have beaten. Basically, Brook has never faced strong competition – so how will he fare against the field on April 5th.
You have to love the nerve of the bookies during the Grand National – Hedgehunter is now 12 years old, carrying a decent handicap (for some stupid reason) and is priced at 16.0! Betting on Hedgehunter to win the GN is like betting Linford Christie to win the 110m hurdle in Beijing this year. A massive mover in the markets has been King John’s Castle – I noticed him dropping from three figures so I took him at 50/1 and was pleased when I saw him around the 15.0 mark in the bookies – however, examining this horses form, I think 50/1 is a fair bet: Yes he’s had a good season claiming £33k in prize money with 3 second place finished and a first in 4 races – however, he’s never won over 2.5 miles! In my opinion, this horse is going to take the race by storm until the three mile mark and from then on he’ll be lucky to finish let alone place.
Monday 24 March 2008
2008 Oxford vs Cambridge Boat Race
This is just a quick post. Basically, I’m just amazed by how little is known by the experts in regards to the Oxford vs Cambridge University Boat Race this Saturday. Normally this is one of the easiest sporting events to handicap – but this year it seems that the bookies don’t have a clue. However, the punters seem to think they do – in the Betfair market about 85% of the money is going on Oxford!
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
The race will start relatively late this year at 17:15 and there are some variables in this particular sport. Different boats perform better in different weather conditions (very basically, slimmer boats and boats that sit lower in the water don’t cope that well with waves). Other than the boat, the only other variable is the crew. The Cambridge boat has heavier crew overall by 34.8kg, which works out at 4.3kg per man. Furthermore they have a lighter cox (but only by 5kg). In my opinion the skill levels between these two teams are going to be almost exact so the only differentiation can be made on the grounds of weight – this being said; I’d take Cambridge to win.
The other factor is of course the course. The river meanders heavily – I believe it begins with a small right-handed turn, then a massive left-handed arc, then a final right-handed turn before the approach to Chiswick Bridge and the finish line. Therefore, this is also a race for tactical coxes and coxes lucky enough to win the flip to allow them to use their preferred tactics. So, with this in mind – perhaps when this is a close race to call, one shouldn’t bet on it.
GL anyways
Saturday 22 March 2008
The Grand National - picking winner explained
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
The Grand National - picking winner explained
Well – I think it’s time to start the Grand National thread. It’d be good to see what everyone else has to think – below is a copy of my latest blog post. My tips are coming later, but I think this is a good guide on how to approach picking a GN winner.
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
My record of GN winners is pretty good:
Rough Quest 1996 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsXuOIW97KU
Pappillon in 2000 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nymESAbl-8
Hedgehunter in 2005-
Numbersixvalverde in 2006 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvlmf6YGbR0
30 fences, 8 to 10 minutes of nail biting and already my largest bet on a single race to sweat!
I think I have a good record – I’ve picked 4 winners in 12 races. Ok, so in 1996 I think my pick was fairly uneducated, however – even as early as 2000 I had some good reasons behind my view – or rather some good information in regards to the then relatively unknown jockey – Ruby Walsh. I was also lucky enough to be in Spain at the time so retained the odds of 33/1, whilst English punters had to make do with 9/1. And, at the time, I took down my biggest win to date.
So how do you pick a Grand National winner? I have to say I’d look at this race like most other races. Firstly you have to look at the historical trends – and be very careful when doing so because the fences have been dropped in size significantly over the years making a Foinavon style victory (returned at 100/1) very unlikely indeed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foinavon, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnNvNvgjv8 ) - so although 4 100/1’s have finished first in the last 100 years don’t be too swayed by fortune making odds; since 1990 the highest odds for a winner were 40/1 for Royal Athlete in 1995 and I’m happy to book all bets that this year’s winner will retain this trend at 1/20. (20/1 if you want to go against me for a winner outside 40/1 on the starting price (SP))
So now tends matter more than ever. And the basic GN reel of stats that every tipster and punter will spew off is: must be between 8 and 12 years old, should be hit by the handicappers – but below the top weights (preferably under 11 stone 5), must have won a chase over 3 miles, and must have won a chase for over £17,500 – preferably grade 1. Every year someone tries to tell me that 2.5 mile chasers are well suited to this race, and every year I laugh, because this is the biggest load of S*** I have ever heard – do not buy into it!
To these trends I’d add the following – should have experience in larger fields, preferably 20 or more – this factor often favours novice chasers who regularly have to compete in a field of 20 or more – however, a lack of stamina also affects the novices so apply this trend wisely. Although wins are a bonus I’d like to have a horse that has had a lot of places and fairly few falls – staying power is fundamental to GN success; if you’re in the front pack by the 27th flight you’re in good stead. I’d also say I really rate horses who have had success over the fences at Aintree. Finally – the horse has to be on top form this season. I’d also go as far to say that horses facing the highest handicap really can’t win this – the only horse to do it was Red Rum!
To me Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter were perfect examples of good picks. Hedgehunter was on fantastic form, although he hadn’t managed to take down the 2005 Cheltenham Gold cup, his runner-up position in such a tight race secured him a spot close to the top of my shortlist for the GN. Furthermore, his success the previous year (up until an unlucky fall at the final flight) showed his ability to run in a large field and run well over the Aintree fences. Numbersix had won the Irish National earlier in the season and was at the top of his game. However, due to his success the previous year Hedgehunter had received the top weight and this is what allowed Numbersix to take the race by 6 lengths – which is why I had Numbersix to win and Hedgehunter to place that year (I also had the 3rd place finisher to place too!).
So I’m going to leave this as a work in progress. Much of my work on the GN has been done in the ante-post markets – I’ve got about £200 on the race now and really don’t want to extend my exposure. My plan this year has been to exchange superior information for better value odds. However, following the release of the line up on April 1st I’d like to put together some tips. The challenge I’m setting myself is to name a winner in 3-4 choices. I’m fairly confident about this race.
Funny clips: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Vj16no59Q
Wednesday 19 March 2008
Gold Cup trip report and Grand National update
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