eeek - 6 buy ins in the wrong direction...

So I just played my worst ever session on PTY. I think I got unlucky but also played pretty horrendously towards the end of the session. There’s a few hands which stick out a bit that perhaps I should mention.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173381 – I think this hand is a call - I do hate going broke on AA in an a 2-bet pot – but when he shoves here I just don’t think I can fold. The vil is playing 25/8 which makes it less likely that he’s raising pps from the blinds – but I think his shove looks like a draw.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173421 – this hand I hate myself for. Vil is 22/16 so I know the guy’s a solid player. On the flop he tanks and then calls – I know that looks dodgy, and either means he’s flushing or he’s got a set. The deuce on the turn let’s me know that it’s unlikely he had the deuce set and the JJJ set is almost out of the question – so it’s 4s or the flush draw – when he shoves on me after the turn it does put me in a bit of a situation – although I’m getting 3:1 on the call I’m thinking he has a house almost enough of the time to merit a fold – but I was tilting so I called... 100% shitty play by me!

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173451 – I think this hand is rather marginal – the donkey is playing 50/0 and has recently made an expert call on two streets with an under pair (that was actually good) against me. If he raises the turn I can fold this hand – but as played I’m not sure how I get away from it.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2173783 – this is another pot that I knew I wasn’t winning on the turn. And I could have told you what that king did to his hand. Bit of a cooler really – having a fair bit of trouble with fish and their gutshots atm.

Other than these hands there were a few others where I continuously failed to hold up. In fact the only stack I took was my AK vs QQ. Think this was a mixture of running bad and playing bad – I should have quit when I was showing a $125 loss, however, I don’t think I was playing really terribly until I hit the $200 loss – even then, the biggest hand I lost was when I was gutshotted. Overall, down $268 for the week which means a little more time before I move up...

I think my gambling is becoming a little reckless atm. I don’t think I am putting 100% of the effort I should be putting into the game and I keep taking risks, such as betting turns where a check may be more +ev. Perhaps I need to get over this before I go back to the game.

weekend of racing

Quick report on the weekend:

1st race I had was the 14:40 at Kempton. I had reasonably good advice to take the fav in this race, however after leading the whole race by several lengths he managed to fall at the penultimate hurdle and it was all over as Walsh rode Oslot, the 11:1 outsider to his first Kempton victory.

2nd race. This was my main race for the day, I had several horses backed here and I have to say it went a bit Pete Tong for me. My top tip (from the post below) was Ungaro who managed about a furlong before falling at the 2nd fence. Simon ran well, but as was suspected, his age, lack of current form and handicap weight let him down and he didn’t manage a place. The top tipped outsiders also showed some strength and I believe I managed to get a 3rd place out of one of my long shots – I can’t remember which coz I had him backed to win so didn’t really give a shit. After a fairly relaxed race Walsh managed to bring Gungadu home in what could have been an exciting victory, if I had him backed. In sum; pretty shit for me.

3rd race. Well, this was meant to be the easiest victory for the GN favourite Snowy Morning. Against a field of the elderly and the inexperienced his victory was meant to be decisive. However, he ran poorly and finished 3rd, which was a hell of a shame as I had £75 on him to win at 1.38. According to the jockey he may have a respiratory problem, which is probably why the ante post favourite has fallen from being 11.5 on betfair to 24.0for the National. However, as his trainers claim that he’s fine and that he will definitely run in the National – perhaps, amongst this negative market speculation, it is time to get some more money down on him...

One notable development at Fairyhouse was Hedgehunters performance: perhaps he’s a good place bet for the National...

Kempton and Fairyhouse

Finally – a race that’s worth watching. This is the only big test remaining before Gold Cup week starts in Cheltenham. The 23rd Feb at Kempton and the Racing Post Handicap Chase (3:15). Won last year by Simon who went on to become a front runner for the National but failed to succeed falling six fences from home. This year Simon is 3rd favourite, but I still don’t think I’ll be backing him. He has really failed to live up to expectations since this race last year and for this reason I think his odds represent a sense of nostalgia rather than any his ability.

Simon’s odds, nonetheless, do reflect the fact his credentials match the trends: previous winners have performed well on the Kempton track and almost all winners have had previous successes at this distance (3m). However, of the previous nine winners, eight have won their last outings – Simon did not. In addition to this Simon clearly favours soft ground, and the conditions are expected to be fair. In my opinion, horses who favour soft, and have achieved notable victories on such ground, find it much more difficult to convert their abilities to a fairer surface than the competition. On this note, this factor is holding Kuato Star favourite over Denman in the Chelts Gold Cup.

The favourite, Gunadu, ran very well at Sandown earlier this month with Jockey Sam Thomas. However, his recent form with R. Walsh hasn’t been great, and perhaps this should be taken into account before backing him too hard. Nonetheless I think I’d give this horse a 7:2 shot at winning this race – so if you don’t mind anteposting on betfair I think the value is there. His success over this distance is of notoriety; however a win a Kempton is clearly missing from his criteria.

Ungaro is second on the books and is a strong second favourite. He’s a good runner, and certain to finish, however he hasn’t been first across the line since December ’06 – nonetheless – that was at Kempton. I really believe the odds on this particular horse are swayed by his form on this course, because he’s just not been able to bring it home for his syndicate recently. But, he’s certainly generating bit of action and his second place finish on good ground in Doncaster late January would lead one to believe that he could bring home this trophy.

There’s no run-away favourite in this race as Exotic Dancer pulled out a few days prior; so it’s certainly a race for the speculators. I also think the fact it’s fairly open means that a couple of outsider bets may prove fruitful. Bagan, for example, currently at 13:1 on betfair is a great antepost bet. A win at the Warwick course in the chase there earlier this month and a very respectable season altogether means that although this horse might not be the same calibre of some of the front runners the odds are still very much worth a £5 punt – I’ve already got mine down (at 17:1). Only notable disadvantage is that he prefers good to soft.

Wee Robbie is the biggest mover in the market, whilst writing this I tried to get a punt down on him and had to alter my odds for half the bet to process on betfair. It is recommended that you back him e/w, but hey, I’ve got him to win in the antepost markets. Is this a bit of a market bubble or could backing him be profitable?

Finally, if you want real value for money get a couple of quid on Herecomesstanley - at 45:1 on betfair he seems like a real outsider but has performed well at Kempton in the past and has notched up a fair few small victories this season. So if you want a real punt – you got one here!

In sum: if you want a good shot at some cash back Gunadu or Ungaro – of the two I’d probably take Ungaro – I feel the odds are fairer and more reflective of the fact that both of these horse have been thrown into the breach created by Dancers’ exit.
*****************

This weekend’s racing also has a feature or two in Ireland. I’d certainly not call myself knowledgeable of Irish race courses – I’d find it hard pointing to some of them on a map. However, I have a couple of views for Fairyhouse in the Emerald Isle. The “At the Races Bobbyjo Chase” (4.20) has one very notable runner: Snowy Morning. Snowy is currently holding the number one spot in the Grand National – one should note that only 4 of the last 28 National winners have been favourites, nonetheless, this is a very capable horse that is almost sure to win against the field. Bet him to win!

If you want to add to your winning ticket I recommend backing Chelsea Harbour to place. He’s been running well and is currently climbing up the ante-post markets for the National. This will certainly be a test for him, and if he’s successful, you can be sure that all those who have got their money on him for Aintree will be laughing as the punters scramble for his decreasing odds.

Best of luck over the weekend!

running hot!

Well – it seems that my friend used up my whole luck box and took out a luck loan which is currently charging very high interest. I played a 1 hour session today and successfully lost 3 buy-ins.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128539 – well, I thought I should be ahead against this 50 vpip moron and thought nothing about calling his shove – sadely, the contence ofmy luck box being empty meant I got the cash in 4:1 behind.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128594 – next hand I played I managed to up it to being an 8:1 dog.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128548 – 4:1 to win, again – this time he pretty much spelled out his hand by the fact he was playing 40/5 and chose to use the multiple min raise policy. (44:1 to have your KK run into AA – sure it is)

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128561 – well on the 88th time I had KK in the 1 hour session – would you believe it... lol. Nope – I had KK 7 times, and 2 of them I was up against... you guessed it... in fact – in the 82 times I have had KK since January I have run into AA 5 times, and lost to QQ (AIP) twice. In the words of Ged – “I run shit hot!”

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128582 – in fact, this was the only big hand I managed to win. And this kinda played itself...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2128586 – I love this hand, the way I played it was pretty damn good – but his expert read on the dealer gave him a massive edge. Hmmm – I wonder how many times I have lost when I have someone dead to three outs...

What I loved most about this day time session is that after every time I got stacked the vil left within about 3 hands – so please, please, please – if you stack any of these people – sit out immediately and berate them for a few mins.

Anyways – that’s the end of my rant – I’m now going to focus on my degree for a few hours. But I’ll probably play an evening session – let’s see if I can get a little luckier then...

As an after thought I decided to have a look at how many times I have had KK vs AA. I have run KK into AA 14 times over the last 75,000 hands on PTY – this means it happens every 24.5 times I have KK. Including other sites I have a sample of 115,000 hands and it has happened 18 times – roughly 1 in 28 times I have KK. Now obviously, it should statistically happen 1 in 44 times (a player will be dealt AA every 220 hands, and so with 5 other players at the table...) Basically, does this mean I run bad? – discuss... lol

$10/$20 is where the fish are swimming!

$10/$20 trip report

Yer – decided to take Kader’s advice and move up to where the respect my raises – there were no $25/$50 tables runningso had to make do with $10/$20.

I decided to fain drunkenness in order to beat the game:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105278 – well this hand may look fishy to those who aren’t regs on PTY, however, those who are understand that being dead to 4 outs is in no way a bad spot to get your money in. Ship the $1400 pot to the Prof!

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105275 – when you realise you have no showdown value it’s probably a good idea to shove for pot in order to win. Many people are scared to make this move because of the high variance, but I recon it works about 12% of the time.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105279 – in this hand we see another technique – it’s called the river value min raise – it’s a difficult move to pull off without a table to players vying for your chips.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105282 – AK is very much a drawing hand, and for this reason it must be played to the river sometimes in order to draw to a pair – however, if you fail to make a pair you should be looking to fold or shove – it’s fairly neutral.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105285 – with top pair no kicker you should be looking most players up – esp. this vil, mainly because he’s called Haki – which has connotations with Tony the Hitman Hakki.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2105284 – at this level you must remember the pros feed on weakness – therefore, in order to avoid being sharked – don’t show any weakness. Not betting all three streets with bottom pair is a leak in most people’s games.

Okies – so there you have it – ProfPOWER made $985 in 44 hands – which, my friends, is a pretty good win rate.

GL at the tables

(disclaimer: may not have been Ollie Power playing – but the advice clearly came from a pro)

Grand National '08 revisited - (poker post from 7th Feb below)

I think it’s time to review the Grand National Handicap Chase at Aintree once again. As I mentioned early in January, the only way to beat this race is to get your bets down early. The reason being, the bookies know the demand to place bets on this race, and for that reason the odds in the run up and on the day are atrocious. Imagine trying to beat a poker game with an uncapped 25-30% rake – that’s what you are up against on the day of the race.

Well, I told all those who read my blog to back the, then, favourite, Mr Pointment, and to also take Butlers Cabin and Bewleys Berry. Well, tbh, I didn’t quite get it right this time, the odds on Pointment and Cabin have since improved, but Berry’s have fallen 2.5 points. One must understand that the reason for the latest movements have been due to the recent release of the handicap weights – and the reason that Pointment and Cabin are less favoured by the punters now is due to the weights they will be carrying, however, in my opinion this extra weight will give you better odds on what are two fantastic horses each with a great chance of a win.

The new favourite, Snowy Morning, is also, in my opinion, a well rounded horse, but you must back him soon if you want to get money down. From this point onwards there a few tests in the way of these front runners so little information is to be gained, therefore, by waiting you are just decreasing your profits.

Being the Grand National there is a sense of “anything can happen”, indeed, Silver Birch bent every trend in the race’s history to finish ahead of the field last year, and while I’d say that luck played a big part in his victory, I still think there is money to be made on the outsiders. On betfair you can now back horses to “place” and when backing outsiders this is much better value than taking an each way bet as you get the same returns over all paid places.

If you are looking for some long odds (low-risk big-profits style), then I’d recommend Chelsea Harbour – after his decisive victory over the field at Punchtown on Sunday his odds have fallen away a bit but he’s still at 39:1 on betfair and that’s good value. Vodka Bleu has also been running fairly well at Cheltenham and at 43:1 and he probably has what it takes if all goes to plan on the day – I will take even money action from anyone who wants to bet that odds on these horses won’t fall below 23:1 by the day of the race!

Below is what I’d call the perfect ante-post race card for someone looking to get about a £100 return on the day. (horse/stake)
Snowy Morning/£14, Mr. Pointment/£11, Bewleys Berry/£11, Cloudy Lane/£10, Butlers Cabin/10, Simon/£9, Chelsea Harbour/£4.50, Vodka Bleu/£4 – total exposure £73.50

If anyone has any views or opinions please post them, I would very much like to hear a few other opinions on this race.

"wtf, nh sir... wp.... love how you disguised it by calling off half you stack with it pre..."

Just finished another sub 5 buy-ins session. Cannot believe how bad I run. Or perhaps, I just won’t accept how bad I play.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061546 – right, so my bad, I presumed that to call 10% of your stack pre you had to have a holding that wouldn’t connect with any part of that flop... how wrong was i?

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061540 – I can almost hear it now: “you make money from fish making stupid calls like this” – well, against me I think he’s 50/50 with this hand, so it’s a good call pre and on the flop I suppose!

This is fairly standard for the way I run with big pairs: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061534

This was the last hand I played of the session, don’t think I made too many mistakes – perhaps should have folded pre. http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061521

So these are the hands which have left me tilting a little – but I think I lost a fair chunk just through 3-betting my big holdings. I’m just finding that I get called all the time, and then it’s difficult to carry on after the flop: http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061557 – btw, even if I flop the ace or king here I don’t think I can go broke on the hand, I almost have to treat it like a 2-bet pot, don’t I?

I think the main area where I’m losing money is with big holdings. In a hand like this http://www.pokerhand.org/?2061581 I know he has a set of jacks, but because I have put in the large 3-bet and had it called I have to go with the hand.

I’m just finding that with ever increasing frequency I’m having big bets called with hands that are looking to catch, and recently, they haven’t had much of a problem catching.

Basically, I have to confess I’m getting a little bored of these stakes – I still have a $2500 roll and I am seriously thinking of just taking a shot at a higher level – if I lose 5 buy ins I think I’ll just withdraw what I have left and call it a day. I just think, I used to enjoy analysing hands and my play, but now it’s all getting a little tedious as the big red number grows. At one point I was absolutely crushing PTY, why?, I was hitting a set 1 in 10 times, I wasn’t getting coolered too much, my big pairs held sometimes, basically I was running statistically okay. Now, well I don’t have a clue what has happened. I get coolered once or twice a session (including set over set 200bbs deep), I get KK vs AA at least once every 15 times I have KK (should be 1 in 42 on 6 max I believe – but those calculations make it sound like a rare occurrence!), I just never seem to flop a set – and the times I do they have absolutely nothing. I still play fairly nitty, but hey, they’ll still call $10 pre wit J7s. what can I say; I’m probably not getting out-played too much, but out-flopped – yer, think that’s the problem.

Ty for reading, suggestions always welcome.

Gl at the tables

poker poker, it's all skill, start with the worse hand and go uphill

The last couple of weeks have been absolutely piss poor for me. I’m not stuck a sick chunk of money – probably only stuck 4 buy-ins, but I feel I should be up by a fair few. I’ve been employing pretty good table selection on PTY and I have been up against some massive action players, but my cards just don’t seem to be holding.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042158 – this particular fish is relatively new to PTY and his unorthodox style of play combined with his absolutely unrivalled luck box...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042136 – ok, so this hand – a good example of me exploiting a fishy player – his min re-raise pre meant that he had a pretty good holding, and therefore, I chose not to re-raise him and take the 3:1 on my money and play a flop – flopped fish-gin, got it all in and then had a brick shoved up my arse by the poker gods.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042149 – some PTY fish however, don’t like to raise their big holdings pre – which causes me more pain...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042226 – yer, I’m aware that the amount people will call off pre with weak holdings is going to make me money in the long-run, but why do they always have to hit? – okies, this hand, post flop is certainly open for discussion – should I go broke here considering the way it plays out?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042251 – again, “lovin up the pre-flop call”

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042238 – again – should I go broke here?

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042233 – I flip bad
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042244 - real bad

OK – so sometimes you get into an interesting hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042256 – I know this pot is small – but what do you think of my play on the turn? – not sure what he donk-bet-shoves here...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042272 – the decision to re-raise the river was made difficult as the vil. Was playing 8/8 and the way I had played my hand gave the impression of a weak holding, thus he could have been making a half pot value bet with a house on the river – again, this hand is up for discussion.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042285 – really like my line here – lol – certainly allowed me to get my hand paid off.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042291 – was almost surprised that the river wasn’t a jack here – overall, I like how I played this hand, I was content to get all the money in with TPTK – and think it shows that I can make good reads even in the middle of a downswing.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2042306 – alrighty – well I have much history between me and this vil. He’s 3 bet 95% of my pre-flop raises, and so I have no problem re-raising him with AQo here, however, as he’s shown before, he will make massive calls pre-flop – the flop play is therefore based on the assumption of his weak holding, and the call is made because I am pretty sure my overs are good and I have a gutshot - so on the flop I’m 43% to win, not a massive such out – but was made rather amusing by Jack telling me “you’re good” before the pot was shipped – lol

all-in-all, I think my game has become more leaky than before, I am playing too many tables, and also – I’m having a massive problem with hands not holding up – so, in light of this I’m planning to take a shot at 50/1 as I see it as the only way to really focus on improving my game. I don’t plan to play poker forever, so I’m planning to employ some aggressive BRM techniques – allowing myself a 5-6 buy-in shot at the level above, but really putting some time into table selection and only playing 2-4 tables. If I lose my allotted money here I’m going to move back down, but use the same techniques at the 25/50c to make back the 10-12 buy-in before attempting 50/1 again. So – wish me luck...

gl at the tables, ty for reading

ps. If you had taken my advice for the Cheltenham weekend (last weekend) – you’d have seen “Hold-em”, an outside, hand-picked by myself, come second. The second race I told you to back – my chosen horses didn’t race, so you’d have lost nothing there, and in the final race Neptune Collonges came third – so alright if you took him e/w. Have to confess, I didn’t back any of these races as I was out all day, but managed to get a pony down on Franchoek for an even money win! Ty 4 the moneys