Well, where to start. Today I did 8 hours work trying to sign people up to the Gutshot online poker client, I signed up 8 people, why? – coz the Gutshot poker client looks like it was last updated in 1995, it’s absolute WANK!
Got home and played poker, also went a bit sour. I’m now stuck $130 for the week – it’s turning into a bit of a bad run, I’m hitting like 1 flop in 10 and getting check min re-raised every time I make a c-bet. And whenever I do make a hand they either got shit, or summin a little better. However, I do think I’m playing quite well; the following hands are not bad beat stories – but I would like to hear what others have to say.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1211232
– this was where it all started tonight – why, whenever I have QQ and make a set on the flop do I always loose to 3c5c – also, why do people love to call me pre with any two cards from the blinds. this is another time that old 3c-5c stripped me of my stack from a while back
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1211248
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1211197
– would hate not to stack someone in the villain’s position – I managed to keep most of my stack
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1211206
– and this guy should have stacked me too me thinks – btw: I was planning on check-raising the flop, however I checked the river to him because if made a possible straight.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1211211
– okies, in regards to this hand, I didn’t bet the flop because I had been called remorselessly on this table, and had also fallen victim to my new ultimate-tilting move, the check/min-re-raise on several occasions. Again, due to the fact the they check that you both tight and passive before they let you play ssnl on FT meant he got very little for his hand.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1211204
– by the end of the night I was seeing ghosts in every shadow which is perhaps why I played this badly on the turn – but I don’t understand all their floating on FT.
Overall, tonight’s 2 hour session saw a $85 downswing. I’m not too upset, all the above hands were during that session and I certainly should and could have been stacked twice with my AA vs a set, so I think the way I played the hand both times saved me a load of cash – and so did the shit way they played it! All-in-all I’m $110 down for the week (coz I got a $20 bonus, yay) and I’m just hoping that my downward spiral will stop here, I think I’m playing OK poker, this is just a bad run, hopefully I can come out of it and end the week with some profit.
Ty for reading – please comment on the hands – all advice is appreciated
Tuesday 26 June 2007
Monday 25 June 2007
Going pro..... for 3 months
Okies – so day 1 of trying to make money…
Well I managed to get a couple of jobs at the Western Card Club (London) – dealing on the Friday and Saturday and also 3 days a week signing people up to the Gutshot online poker client at the Western Card Club – I know it seems strange. I also played a 2 hour session on FT.
This had been the first session in a bit so I knew I may be a little rusty – and I ended up $46 down – which is pretty standard variance I guess. I lost a $40 pot to a 3 outer – but hey, I’m not gonna cry about it, he had nothing but air when he pushed and I made a good call. Then there followed this hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1207463
There’s a very good case for folding pre – I insta-called coz I was a bit pissed about the rivering about 30 seconds earlier. And I the guy may have thought I could be raising light due to tilt – or that I’d call with shit coz I was tilting… perhaps the better choice… however his stats were 36/4 - 97
This one came an hour later:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1207455
Okies – I know I played this hand kinda shit – I didn’t have stats on the guy and so I wanted to keep the pot small. I put him on either TPGK (possibly TPTK) or JT for two pair on the flop. On the turn I thought that two-pair (thus a house) looked more likely and that’s why I folded the river… When I asked what he had he said T3 – which made me laugh but I started to believe him later on when PAHud got his stats up at 74/7. Perhaps I should have called – or maybe he had a set/top two turned house. Also – me thinks I only have to be correct 2 in 7 times to make this a +ev call… so I think I already know what’ll be said – “fold on the turn or push it all-in” possibly…
So anyways – hopefully I’ll have time to play some poker with my 5 days a week of work – because Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday I’ll be finishing at midnight/2am I think It’ll be quite a good time to bash out a couple of hours at the end of my shift.
But the main aim is to take my $2350 and turn it into $6k by the end of the summer break – I think this is not too high a target and I would really like to be looking at $8k but we’ll see.
Ty for reading - gl all
(ps. If anyone can give me any advice about making money match betting (bonus whoring) it’s be appreciated.)
Well I managed to get a couple of jobs at the Western Card Club (London) – dealing on the Friday and Saturday and also 3 days a week signing people up to the Gutshot online poker client at the Western Card Club – I know it seems strange. I also played a 2 hour session on FT.
This had been the first session in a bit so I knew I may be a little rusty – and I ended up $46 down – which is pretty standard variance I guess. I lost a $40 pot to a 3 outer – but hey, I’m not gonna cry about it, he had nothing but air when he pushed and I made a good call. Then there followed this hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1207463
There’s a very good case for folding pre – I insta-called coz I was a bit pissed about the rivering about 30 seconds earlier. And I the guy may have thought I could be raising light due to tilt – or that I’d call with shit coz I was tilting… perhaps the better choice… however his stats were 36/4 - 97
This one came an hour later:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1207455
Okies – I know I played this hand kinda shit – I didn’t have stats on the guy and so I wanted to keep the pot small. I put him on either TPGK (possibly TPTK) or JT for two pair on the flop. On the turn I thought that two-pair (thus a house) looked more likely and that’s why I folded the river… When I asked what he had he said T3 – which made me laugh but I started to believe him later on when PAHud got his stats up at 74/7. Perhaps I should have called – or maybe he had a set/top two turned house. Also – me thinks I only have to be correct 2 in 7 times to make this a +ev call… so I think I already know what’ll be said – “fold on the turn or push it all-in” possibly…
So anyways – hopefully I’ll have time to play some poker with my 5 days a week of work – because Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday I’ll be finishing at midnight/2am I think It’ll be quite a good time to bash out a couple of hours at the end of my shift.
But the main aim is to take my $2350 and turn it into $6k by the end of the summer break – I think this is not too high a target and I would really like to be looking at $8k but we’ll see.
Ty for reading - gl all
(ps. If anyone can give me any advice about making money match betting (bonus whoring) it’s be appreciated.)
Sunday 17 June 2007
Some stats - 9k hands
Just worked out how to find out my stats for the last 30 days. I'm playing 15/11 - which is an improvment. I'm winning 63% of my showdowns (which I think is shit...) Okies - so yer - I think I'm firmly routed in the TAG camp, but maybe that's good.... - Yes, my LAG bashing continues, and now I have CardRunners' Muddywater on my side - If you are a CR member please watch the start of "Muddywater 75 ($.50-1 NL FTP) 5/09/07" he'll explain all that i have been saying- lmao
The month evaluated
Think I’m going to put my Monday update up now to stop me playing for a while. Everything is going great; this week I made about $190 and got $100 in rakeback. It’s now a month on from changing my game and I’ve added 1/3 to my roll. I have gone from having a roll of $1577 to $2389. I’ve played relatively little poker too because I have been working towards my exams and I had two loosing weeks. Even taking this into account I am earning roughly $18 an hour playing poker (not including tournament time).
So I wanted to use this post to try and evaluate my game. Ok I lost money for two weeks in a row – why? Well the first week would have been a winning week if I didn’t drop nearly 4 stacks on a hung-over session – okies I got a bit unlucky but I was trying to play 5 tables and I could barely work out my holdings let alone their range. The week following that I was completely demoralised and I think I played fairly bad poker as well as just kept getting consistently unlucky in the big pots – all-in-all I lost $38 that week and I recon I should have been up a stack or two statistically. However, I still think half my losses this week were due to bad play.
I think my new game is so much better than before because I’m trying to expand my edge constantly. My table selection, well it was non existent before – just find 9 tables asap and get playing. Now I will find tables, “sit-out” and observe the players before I get involved. Also, really getting the feel for the tables before I play has helped my adjust my play. For instance, I started putting into practice the CR ideas during the weekday sessions, however, when I tried to use aggressive post-flop bluffs against them on the weekends they kept calling. I have to confess that before, I barely noticed the difference in play between Monday morning and Saturday night.
I still haven’t moved back to PTY for any real period of time. The reason is I don’t believe I can really practice my game on PTY nl:$50. I’ll get in situations where I’ll 3-bet the button with AQ and get 4 callers etc – therefore, I just feel that I can make more through tight play with very little aggression – and I really want to open up my game, FT lets me do that.
I want to try to adapt a more Laggy approach to my game, and I think on the midweek NL:$50 on FT it’s actually possible to make this work. I’m watching the CR videos and trying to bring a few of their strategies into my game – obv. the players aren’t thinking on as many levels as they would be at the higher stakes so I’m not going to try anything that complex.
Using PAHud and PTH have been great – I now datamine FT for hours each day. I feel it gives me a great edge esp. when I first sit down at the table. Using these programs has definitely contributed to my success this month.
I think that perhaps the biggest positive change in my game has been my attitude. I concentrate on every pot regardless of how much money is in it. I really think about how I’m feeling before I sit down to play a session, and I don’t play if I’m not feeling about 95% perfect. I have certainly shed my defeatist attitude and am taking bad beats much better than before. They still piss me off but they are not as damaging as before. Prior to re-evaluating my game I would play 9 tables, and be loosing on most of them, then get a big hand, stack someone and then be up $20-$30 for the session – therefore, if that big hand went wrong I would be stuck $70-$80 for the session – you can see the predicament. I believe now I’m trying to beat the game and play good poker rather than primarily make money.
So my plans for the future: well, with no summer jobs lined up as yet I will have to see my poker as a bit of a job. I would like to start bonus-bagging as well – so maybe use the mornings for bonus-bagging, the afternoons for tourneys and satellites then hit the cash games in the evenings. I need to make just over $600 before I start playing the 50/1 and I’m really hoping I wont ever have to look back. I think if I can play successfully at 50/1 over the summer I can definitely make a fair bit of cash. I want to start playing more Stars tourneys – with the new 3k starting stack I feel I certainly have an edge. I have played 3 $18k guaranteed and have finished 220th, 196th, and 68th – although I am loosing for this tourney overall I still think I am +ev in the long run. As I said I also want to branch out into bonus bagging, it sounds like free money – and as it requires patience rather than skill it’d be an ok thing to do whilst I’m in bed every morning – hell I could even do it with a hand over. Lastly I would like to branch into some sort of trading, I think my dad has a good idea of the markets – however, he is less of a gambler than me and so favours the low risk side of investing – whereas I would prefer to try for larger profit margins. If anyone would like to give me some advice on how to invest, and better still – what to invest in, it’d be much appreciated.
TY for reading
(ps. I think I will avoind the tables until next monday (25th) - I have exams on tuesday and thursday next week and will be pissed or hung over until monday - so this is the safest decision!)
So I wanted to use this post to try and evaluate my game. Ok I lost money for two weeks in a row – why? Well the first week would have been a winning week if I didn’t drop nearly 4 stacks on a hung-over session – okies I got a bit unlucky but I was trying to play 5 tables and I could barely work out my holdings let alone their range. The week following that I was completely demoralised and I think I played fairly bad poker as well as just kept getting consistently unlucky in the big pots – all-in-all I lost $38 that week and I recon I should have been up a stack or two statistically. However, I still think half my losses this week were due to bad play.
I think my new game is so much better than before because I’m trying to expand my edge constantly. My table selection, well it was non existent before – just find 9 tables asap and get playing. Now I will find tables, “sit-out” and observe the players before I get involved. Also, really getting the feel for the tables before I play has helped my adjust my play. For instance, I started putting into practice the CR ideas during the weekday sessions, however, when I tried to use aggressive post-flop bluffs against them on the weekends they kept calling. I have to confess that before, I barely noticed the difference in play between Monday morning and Saturday night.
I still haven’t moved back to PTY for any real period of time. The reason is I don’t believe I can really practice my game on PTY nl:$50. I’ll get in situations where I’ll 3-bet the button with AQ and get 4 callers etc – therefore, I just feel that I can make more through tight play with very little aggression – and I really want to open up my game, FT lets me do that.
I want to try to adapt a more Laggy approach to my game, and I think on the midweek NL:$50 on FT it’s actually possible to make this work. I’m watching the CR videos and trying to bring a few of their strategies into my game – obv. the players aren’t thinking on as many levels as they would be at the higher stakes so I’m not going to try anything that complex.
Using PAHud and PTH have been great – I now datamine FT for hours each day. I feel it gives me a great edge esp. when I first sit down at the table. Using these programs has definitely contributed to my success this month.
I think that perhaps the biggest positive change in my game has been my attitude. I concentrate on every pot regardless of how much money is in it. I really think about how I’m feeling before I sit down to play a session, and I don’t play if I’m not feeling about 95% perfect. I have certainly shed my defeatist attitude and am taking bad beats much better than before. They still piss me off but they are not as damaging as before. Prior to re-evaluating my game I would play 9 tables, and be loosing on most of them, then get a big hand, stack someone and then be up $20-$30 for the session – therefore, if that big hand went wrong I would be stuck $70-$80 for the session – you can see the predicament. I believe now I’m trying to beat the game and play good poker rather than primarily make money.
So my plans for the future: well, with no summer jobs lined up as yet I will have to see my poker as a bit of a job. I would like to start bonus-bagging as well – so maybe use the mornings for bonus-bagging, the afternoons for tourneys and satellites then hit the cash games in the evenings. I need to make just over $600 before I start playing the 50/1 and I’m really hoping I wont ever have to look back. I think if I can play successfully at 50/1 over the summer I can definitely make a fair bit of cash. I want to start playing more Stars tourneys – with the new 3k starting stack I feel I certainly have an edge. I have played 3 $18k guaranteed and have finished 220th, 196th, and 68th – although I am loosing for this tourney overall I still think I am +ev in the long run. As I said I also want to branch out into bonus bagging, it sounds like free money – and as it requires patience rather than skill it’d be an ok thing to do whilst I’m in bed every morning – hell I could even do it with a hand over. Lastly I would like to branch into some sort of trading, I think my dad has a good idea of the markets – however, he is less of a gambler than me and so favours the low risk side of investing – whereas I would prefer to try for larger profit margins. If anyone would like to give me some advice on how to invest, and better still – what to invest in, it’d be much appreciated.
TY for reading
(ps. I think I will avoind the tables until next monday (25th) - I have exams on tuesday and thursday next week and will be pissed or hung over until monday - so this is the safest decision!)
Thursday 14 June 2007
Horses: +ev or -ev.......?
Managed to take a bit of flack the other nigh when I claimed that I was a +ev horse bettor. So after making my claims I was I decided to get on the phone to the guy who introduced me to the wonderful world of horse gambling to try and work out my profits and losses over the last few years. Sadly, like all big gamblers, although he was great at remembering the winners he’d picked – the loosing bets seemed to elude him. But we managed to put together a bit of my horse gambling legacy.
I thought I was at least a teenager before I got my first bet down, but he proved me wrong, my first two bets I made in 1998 – it was a family owned horse, and was pretty unknown. So 1998 – I made two bets, Graphic-Equaliser to win in both the Ladbrook Hurdle and the Tote Gold Trophy at 20:1 and 16:1 respectively. – I was betting big with £5 on each race (about 100 times less than my gambling buddy). It couldn’t have gone better, Graphic raced in the Ladbrook Hurdle at 10:1 – so it was lucky we had our bets on fixed odds, and he won by about 5 lengths as I remember. By the time of the Tote Gold he was the 3:1 favourite and we had him at 16:1. So I ended the year a £180 winner – I think the best part was I couldn’t get any bets down myself so I was never able to think “this is easy” and spunk my winnings in the bookies.
The next year Graphic sadly had to hit the sack indefinitely and that was the end of my gambling for 2 years. Then, just before I went off to Spain for a week in Easter my gambling buddy told me he had heard “something” and to try to get a bet down on Papillon to win the Grand National, however, I left without giving him the money for the bet. But then the day of the race came up and I ended up in a restaurant full of ex-pats and in the corner there was a man taking bets, and the best bit was he was taking them on the basis of the odds printed that morning – so I got £5 on Papillon at 33:1. Needless to say the outcome got me hooked – I was up £165.
2001 was fucked up by foot and mouth. I’m not sure why because I swear horses can’t get it. Anyways, the year was dry and I didn’t back a single race. What made it worse was that a little bit of info had come my way about a horse called Best-Mate – and that eyar he would have raced as the favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (but it was cancelled). Next year, however, I got my usual £5 down on Best-Mate and he didn’t disappoint. The Grand National also went well for me as I had my £5 on Bindaree at 30:1 (you gotta love fixed odds). Just under £200 up for the year.
2003 was a nice year as well – we got our money down on Best-Mate as soon as we could find a bookie to take the bet (about 2 and a half months before the race – hahahah) – and yet again he did it. I also made hit 2nd and 3rd with each way shots in the Grand National. By this point, at the fine age of 16, my gambling buddy decided to take off the £5 cap on my bets and I believe I ended this year up around £300-£400 for the horses. Only problem was I was now betting other sports (I had my fake ID) and loosing rather consistently – I didn’t quite appreciate the advantage of inside information – something I don’t have in motor racing and football.
2004 was when I started really gambling the sports hard, and loosing hard-core. I really couldn’t understand why I couldn’t pick winners. But luckily the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the National Were coming up and I “knew” the winners. I had studied the form for the Grand National and I watched as Amberleigh House came in first at 25:1 (again fixed odds, race started at 16:1) to the tune of about £500. And Best-Mate made it his third win in a row in the Cheltenham Gold to the tune of £300. Only problem was how much I had lost that year – which I think mean I was still stuck.
2005 was my dry year. My contacts had dried up as Best-Mate had died at the end of the 2004 season. I had never kept any books before but I was now not able to rely on these big wins to keep my head above water so I stopped betting altogether. I really wanted to pick a winner in the Grand National and I spent days studying the form; I think I backed 4 horses, all to win – among them I had the favourite. Sadly I placed my bets the day before the race, and with no inside info I had him at the rather fukin stupid 8:1 – so yay, I think I made about £40 when I take into account the other 3 losers. Only thing that was good about this year was Boxing Day, my gambling buddy called me from a race meeting he had met up with some “friends from back home” and gave my his forecast for the day – I can’t remember their names, but every horse came in first – the catch was Christmas had just passed and I only got about £10 on each horse – so a day that could have made me £2k only made me about £250.
2006 – I placed a few bets during the year. But they all lost or came up with small wins because I backed the favourite on the day of the race like the average mug. Then the Grand National came along and I got in touch with my gambling buddy to work out a bit of a game plan. He’d been in contact with some of his mates across the sea in Ireland and they were all talking about Numbersixvalverde. I wasn’t too happy backing a horse whose name was too long for the bookies slip, and had only had one real success (the Irish National) – but I decided to go for it anyways. I got him two weeks before the race at about 30:1 which was absolutely sick – especially as I backed him to win. I decided to mix it up a bit that year and I stuck in some horses to place. I even drew up a short list to run tri-caster (this is when you choose 1st, 2nd and 3rd). I had about £150 on this race, by far my biggest ever outgoing on any race meeting. Well – Numbersix didn’t let me down, and I had backed 2nd and 3rd to place. Although I collected £450(ish) from the bookies, what nearly killed me was that I had got a tip on the day of the race which compelled me to change 3rd place on my tri-caster – that change cost me about £20,000.
2007 – lets not talk about that – Silver-Birch was a three-legged donkey who should never have had a chance in perfect conditions – what happened!?!
So anyways, this is my horse betting diary of the last 9 years. I think my wins have definitely come up way over 4 figures. The only problem was that I had too many leaks and was way too happy to try and pick the winners myself. The reason I think I was a +ev horse bettor was mainly because my information often allowed my to place bets several weeks and sometimes months before the race meeting had started. If you ask for fixed odds at this point you run a load of risk, but I you have a good bit of info you can make a killing. Overall I have found that if you bet the favourite, once he is the favourite – you’re making a massive –ev bet. There are few hurdle races where any horse is a good bet at less than 8:1 – and even at these odds you’re a sucker. Betting horses to place never made me much money either and the risk is so much bigger. I think I avoided being a sucker for all these years, but I have to say – unless I start getting the information that I used to I’m probably going to duck out of this world, coz 99.5% of the gambling public are suckers and I don’t think I need to add to that statistic.
I remember meeting a lady in a pub a few months back, and for some reason we got on to this topic, and ended up reminiscing about Best-Mate. She claimed to have made £5k off that horse! – However, she ended up telling me how she’s given up the big betting because her info had dried up; apparently she’d been friends with a few stable boys who knew almost as much a jockeys when it came to the horses conditions but had lost contact over the years. I think the sad fact is, unless you own a horse or have very close contacts with a big player in a syndicate etc it’s very hard to grind out an edge. Without this advantage you just look like a broke poker player; speculating for the rail…
I thought I was at least a teenager before I got my first bet down, but he proved me wrong, my first two bets I made in 1998 – it was a family owned horse, and was pretty unknown. So 1998 – I made two bets, Graphic-Equaliser to win in both the Ladbrook Hurdle and the Tote Gold Trophy at 20:1 and 16:1 respectively. – I was betting big with £5 on each race (about 100 times less than my gambling buddy). It couldn’t have gone better, Graphic raced in the Ladbrook Hurdle at 10:1 – so it was lucky we had our bets on fixed odds, and he won by about 5 lengths as I remember. By the time of the Tote Gold he was the 3:1 favourite and we had him at 16:1. So I ended the year a £180 winner – I think the best part was I couldn’t get any bets down myself so I was never able to think “this is easy” and spunk my winnings in the bookies.
The next year Graphic sadly had to hit the sack indefinitely and that was the end of my gambling for 2 years. Then, just before I went off to Spain for a week in Easter my gambling buddy told me he had heard “something” and to try to get a bet down on Papillon to win the Grand National, however, I left without giving him the money for the bet. But then the day of the race came up and I ended up in a restaurant full of ex-pats and in the corner there was a man taking bets, and the best bit was he was taking them on the basis of the odds printed that morning – so I got £5 on Papillon at 33:1. Needless to say the outcome got me hooked – I was up £165.
2001 was fucked up by foot and mouth. I’m not sure why because I swear horses can’t get it. Anyways, the year was dry and I didn’t back a single race. What made it worse was that a little bit of info had come my way about a horse called Best-Mate – and that eyar he would have raced as the favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (but it was cancelled). Next year, however, I got my usual £5 down on Best-Mate and he didn’t disappoint. The Grand National also went well for me as I had my £5 on Bindaree at 30:1 (you gotta love fixed odds). Just under £200 up for the year.
2003 was a nice year as well – we got our money down on Best-Mate as soon as we could find a bookie to take the bet (about 2 and a half months before the race – hahahah) – and yet again he did it. I also made hit 2nd and 3rd with each way shots in the Grand National. By this point, at the fine age of 16, my gambling buddy decided to take off the £5 cap on my bets and I believe I ended this year up around £300-£400 for the horses. Only problem was I was now betting other sports (I had my fake ID) and loosing rather consistently – I didn’t quite appreciate the advantage of inside information – something I don’t have in motor racing and football.
2004 was when I started really gambling the sports hard, and loosing hard-core. I really couldn’t understand why I couldn’t pick winners. But luckily the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the National Were coming up and I “knew” the winners. I had studied the form for the Grand National and I watched as Amberleigh House came in first at 25:1 (again fixed odds, race started at 16:1) to the tune of about £500. And Best-Mate made it his third win in a row in the Cheltenham Gold to the tune of £300. Only problem was how much I had lost that year – which I think mean I was still stuck.
2005 was my dry year. My contacts had dried up as Best-Mate had died at the end of the 2004 season. I had never kept any books before but I was now not able to rely on these big wins to keep my head above water so I stopped betting altogether. I really wanted to pick a winner in the Grand National and I spent days studying the form; I think I backed 4 horses, all to win – among them I had the favourite. Sadly I placed my bets the day before the race, and with no inside info I had him at the rather fukin stupid 8:1 – so yay, I think I made about £40 when I take into account the other 3 losers. Only thing that was good about this year was Boxing Day, my gambling buddy called me from a race meeting he had met up with some “friends from back home” and gave my his forecast for the day – I can’t remember their names, but every horse came in first – the catch was Christmas had just passed and I only got about £10 on each horse – so a day that could have made me £2k only made me about £250.
2006 – I placed a few bets during the year. But they all lost or came up with small wins because I backed the favourite on the day of the race like the average mug. Then the Grand National came along and I got in touch with my gambling buddy to work out a bit of a game plan. He’d been in contact with some of his mates across the sea in Ireland and they were all talking about Numbersixvalverde. I wasn’t too happy backing a horse whose name was too long for the bookies slip, and had only had one real success (the Irish National) – but I decided to go for it anyways. I got him two weeks before the race at about 30:1 which was absolutely sick – especially as I backed him to win. I decided to mix it up a bit that year and I stuck in some horses to place. I even drew up a short list to run tri-caster (this is when you choose 1st, 2nd and 3rd). I had about £150 on this race, by far my biggest ever outgoing on any race meeting. Well – Numbersix didn’t let me down, and I had backed 2nd and 3rd to place. Although I collected £450(ish) from the bookies, what nearly killed me was that I had got a tip on the day of the race which compelled me to change 3rd place on my tri-caster – that change cost me about £20,000.
2007 – lets not talk about that – Silver-Birch was a three-legged donkey who should never have had a chance in perfect conditions – what happened!?!
So anyways, this is my horse betting diary of the last 9 years. I think my wins have definitely come up way over 4 figures. The only problem was that I had too many leaks and was way too happy to try and pick the winners myself. The reason I think I was a +ev horse bettor was mainly because my information often allowed my to place bets several weeks and sometimes months before the race meeting had started. If you ask for fixed odds at this point you run a load of risk, but I you have a good bit of info you can make a killing. Overall I have found that if you bet the favourite, once he is the favourite – you’re making a massive –ev bet. There are few hurdle races where any horse is a good bet at less than 8:1 – and even at these odds you’re a sucker. Betting horses to place never made me much money either and the risk is so much bigger. I think I avoided being a sucker for all these years, but I have to say – unless I start getting the information that I used to I’m probably going to duck out of this world, coz 99.5% of the gambling public are suckers and I don’t think I need to add to that statistic.
I remember meeting a lady in a pub a few months back, and for some reason we got on to this topic, and ended up reminiscing about Best-Mate. She claimed to have made £5k off that horse! – However, she ended up telling me how she’s given up the big betting because her info had dried up; apparently she’d been friends with a few stable boys who knew almost as much a jockeys when it came to the horses conditions but had lost contact over the years. I think the sad fact is, unless you own a horse or have very close contacts with a big player in a syndicate etc it’s very hard to grind out an edge. Without this advantage you just look like a broke poker player; speculating for the rail…
Monday 11 June 2007
Back in the black! (for the week that is)
Last week was pretty good – By Saturday I had made my target figure of $250 but spunked about $20 on P-Stars sngs – lol – I think I’m now stuck something like $900 on that fukin site. So totals for the week – Ended up $240, so I’m now at $2,078 and I’m $795 in the red for the play this year –an improvement!
Overall – I think I deserved to make money this week – the last two weeks I’ve been following my old trend of play bad, get stuck, play for hours trying to break even, and then I managed to follow that up with a bit of bad luck in big(ish) hand to end up stuck a nice figure. So since then I’ve really been trying to improve my discipline and I think it’s certainly affected my profits.
I made a fair but of my money out of the tight players that go online at the start of the week. I know, and am constantly told how tight I am, but at least I am aggressive when I choose to play a hand – unlike some of these kids. So yer – I found it easy to grind a profit out of them. Won a couple of “no-brainer” pots, like flopping the nuts flush against a smaller flopped flush – Sorry ‘jocelyn85’, and won a few nice pots with sets etc – inc a very big pot (for 50nl) on Friday night – I had been raising up almost every hand on this table coz they were so fukin tight – then I pick up 55 from late, raise, no action, 44 from mid, raise, no action, 33 from UTG raise and the SB decided to flat call with QQ – we’re both sitting $65 deep. Flop is 3,J,7 rainbow – he checks to me and I bet ¾ pot, he raises and I re-raise – he then insta-pushes – I call and hold – this is typical of Friday night play, basically if you make hands you’ll make money.
There were a few hands I’m not sure I played well:
$35 pot – I call $1.75 pre in the SB with AJo. Flop is 9hAdKd – I check and the player bets $2 – I raise to $7 – he swells up and calls – turn Jh – I decide to check again (wrongly) and he bets $7.5 into $18.50 – the size of the bet worried me – so I decided to just call (mmm) – river is Th – horrible card – I call and he pushes for $32 into $35 – I opt to fold deciding that his most likely holding is AQ – or perhaps a suited Ah – either way he’s got me beat – I think I should have exercised more aggression on the turn when I was probably good. – I just didn’t want to go broke on 2-pair on that board.
$45 pot – UTG flat calls and MP raises pot – I re-pot with JJ on the button, bb calls and the original raiser calls – flop – 9s3h7d – it’s checked to me I bet $14 into $21.75 pot – SB pushes for $36 total and the other player folds – I decide I have to lay my hand down. My thought process was: 1 only made hand he can push here that I can beat is TT. He started the hand on $43 in chips – if he had 8-T (or other check raise all-in coz I’m a fish drawing hands) would he call $7 pre? – also, FT everyone loves to float these big pre-flop bets out of position with big PPs – so I deduced that he probably had KK or AA. However, to come to this decision I had to factor in the illogical nature of ssnl play – perhaps I’m over-thinking the situation and he’s sitting on AK and has put me on the same sort of hand…
$25 (ish) hand – OK I played this on another PC so this is from memory. I had KQ and raise on the button – one caller in the bb – flop 7s8hQd (I think) – he bets pot – so I raise 3 times his bet – he dwells and eventually calls – turn is Xx and he bets ¾ pot at me – I decide to fold – I don’t want to get into a big pot without even TPTK – however, when I thought about it I came to the conclusion that what could have happened was that he made a stupid, out of pos raise with a draw on the flop – then called my re-raise – then when his card didn’t come decided to take another stab at it. If he had a hand he was sure of why not check raise me on the turn – it’s pretty obvious that I’m gonna bet out again as I raised his flop bet. So again not sure of this one.
Anyways – good week. Not sure how much I’m going to play between now and the Monday after next because I have lots of revision to do. The last thing my roll needs now is a damaging revision tilting session to take a bite out of it.
Would really appreciate a bit of feedback on my tricky hands. Thanks for reading. GL
Overall – I think I deserved to make money this week – the last two weeks I’ve been following my old trend of play bad, get stuck, play for hours trying to break even, and then I managed to follow that up with a bit of bad luck in big(ish) hand to end up stuck a nice figure. So since then I’ve really been trying to improve my discipline and I think it’s certainly affected my profits.
I made a fair but of my money out of the tight players that go online at the start of the week. I know, and am constantly told how tight I am, but at least I am aggressive when I choose to play a hand – unlike some of these kids. So yer – I found it easy to grind a profit out of them. Won a couple of “no-brainer” pots, like flopping the nuts flush against a smaller flopped flush – Sorry ‘jocelyn85’, and won a few nice pots with sets etc – inc a very big pot (for 50nl) on Friday night – I had been raising up almost every hand on this table coz they were so fukin tight – then I pick up 55 from late, raise, no action, 44 from mid, raise, no action, 33 from UTG raise and the SB decided to flat call with QQ – we’re both sitting $65 deep. Flop is 3,J,7 rainbow – he checks to me and I bet ¾ pot, he raises and I re-raise – he then insta-pushes – I call and hold – this is typical of Friday night play, basically if you make hands you’ll make money.
There were a few hands I’m not sure I played well:
$35 pot – I call $1.75 pre in the SB with AJo. Flop is 9hAdKd – I check and the player bets $2 – I raise to $7 – he swells up and calls – turn Jh – I decide to check again (wrongly) and he bets $7.5 into $18.50 – the size of the bet worried me – so I decided to just call (mmm) – river is Th – horrible card – I call and he pushes for $32 into $35 – I opt to fold deciding that his most likely holding is AQ – or perhaps a suited Ah – either way he’s got me beat – I think I should have exercised more aggression on the turn when I was probably good. – I just didn’t want to go broke on 2-pair on that board.
$45 pot – UTG flat calls and MP raises pot – I re-pot with JJ on the button, bb calls and the original raiser calls – flop – 9s3h7d – it’s checked to me I bet $14 into $21.75 pot – SB pushes for $36 total and the other player folds – I decide I have to lay my hand down. My thought process was: 1 only made hand he can push here that I can beat is TT. He started the hand on $43 in chips – if he had 8-T (or other check raise all-in coz I’m a fish drawing hands) would he call $7 pre? – also, FT everyone loves to float these big pre-flop bets out of position with big PPs – so I deduced that he probably had KK or AA. However, to come to this decision I had to factor in the illogical nature of ssnl play – perhaps I’m over-thinking the situation and he’s sitting on AK and has put me on the same sort of hand…
$25 (ish) hand – OK I played this on another PC so this is from memory. I had KQ and raise on the button – one caller in the bb – flop 7s8hQd (I think) – he bets pot – so I raise 3 times his bet – he dwells and eventually calls – turn is Xx and he bets ¾ pot at me – I decide to fold – I don’t want to get into a big pot without even TPTK – however, when I thought about it I came to the conclusion that what could have happened was that he made a stupid, out of pos raise with a draw on the flop – then called my re-raise – then when his card didn’t come decided to take another stab at it. If he had a hand he was sure of why not check raise me on the turn – it’s pretty obvious that I’m gonna bet out again as I raised his flop bet. So again not sure of this one.
Anyways – good week. Not sure how much I’m going to play between now and the Monday after next because I have lots of revision to do. The last thing my roll needs now is a damaging revision tilting session to take a bite out of it.
Would really appreciate a bit of feedback on my tricky hands. Thanks for reading. GL
Thursday 7 June 2007
Emily Parr: gorgeous but bigoted
Okies – a little off the poker topic. Big-Brother 8: I decided on the first night that Emily Parr had a chance to get deep in this year’s BB, and was delighted to see PTY had her at 20:1 – so I got $20 on her that night. Today I found she had been removed from the house for making a racist comment towards Charley. Not very clever of Emily I have to admit, esp. after good old Jade G. destroyed her career through some comments on celeb BB. However, one thing that always gets me is; what would have happened if it was the other way round… Ice Cube, for instance, managed to publish a song called “Cave Bitch”, explaining what he though of white females – I think his views are just as disgusting as any Nazi BNP bigot – and just as unfounded. However, should he get away with it?
Guess I’m pissed off about loosing my bet in a bit of an unjustified way – but I think I make a fair point; there’s no such thing as a black racist…
Guess I’m pissed off about loosing my bet in a bit of an unjustified way – but I think I make a fair point; there’s no such thing as a black racist…
Monday 4 June 2007
Another week in the red...
I think one of the main problems with this week was the Sunday 27th – it was the end of week 2 and I blew the weeks profits in 1 hour of semi-questionable play whilst rather hung-over…
Monday and Tuesday I scarcely racked up 1 and a half buy-ins. I got sucked out a couple of times when I got some short stack all-in with middle-pair no kicker etc – but nothing to rant about. Then Wednesday saw a 2 buy-in swing. I dropped a buy-in and a half before I settled into my game, the tables kept breaking up and it was really pissing me off, kept getting my C-bets check-min-raised etc which put me in a bad frame of mind. Really, I only have myself to blame for this loss. However, I was coming back well and narrowed the margin to 1 buy-in by relying on my stats and making some tough calls against some rather agro players. Then my chance to break-even for the night: this guy has raised every hand, is massively aggressive etc, he raises from the SB and I call with 78, flop is 4,7,8 two hearts, he raises, I re-raise and he raises back - I think there's a chance he got lucky and flopped a set - but I don't think he's good enough to bet out with it, I know he could be doing this with an OP or even a flush draw - so I push and he insta-calls with AA - turn and river are 2, 2 – great….
So I decided to rectify the Wednesday session and Thursday was…well probably some of the worst poker I have ever played, mixed with some nasty luck. 1) $50 pot - I have JJ on the button, MP with half a buy-in opens by min-raising, and gets two callers – I pop it up to $5 and MP calls me. Flop is 2,5,6 – he checks it to me and I bet ¾ pot – he pushes – I call, he shows 5s6s…. need I say more - . 2) $40 pot. I have 76o and raise from the button, two callers - flop Js, 5c,3c - I bet 3/4 pot and get one caller, turn is another J - it's checked to me so I decide that the opp has a flush or str8 draw so I bet 3/4 pot again - he min raises - I fold. Not sure what he had here - maybe AJ, maybe a set - Think I was correct to take a stab at it - and I just got unlucky. 3) $80 pot - I had JJ in the SB – button raises to me, and I (for some stupid reason) decide to just flat call. The flop is 3s 5s 2s and I check to, he mashes the pot button which makes me think – more than anything he wants the pot right now, so I call. Turn 6c, again I check and again he bets out – now it doesn’t make much sense, if he had flopped a big flush – why bet so strong, the turn brings the str8 into play – and again he plays strong, the river is 5d and he bets $24 into $30 – at the time I just thought, nothing he has done makes any sense – I’ve been calling (most likely drawing) and his strong hand, which he apparently made on the flop, is “clearly” better than mine so why bet so much – in the end I call, he has 5,5, for quads. Overall, I think I played this hand like a moron – should have raised pre, check-raised the flop and then folded to his action. Finally 4) $40 loss, I have AA on the button and raise it to $2, 1 caller - flop - Q,x,x, - he bets pot - I raise pot, he calls, and pushes the turn - X- I call river Q - he wins with KQ - nice little suck out. 5) $65 pot – my only decent winning pot of the night: I have JJ in MP and make it $1.75, button calls, flop is 4d 8d 7d, I check, he bets $3.50, I decide that there’s a good chance he has nothing, I have the diamond draw and an over pair, I decided to assess the turn, Qs, not likely to help either of us – I check and he makes it $7.50 – I still have a draw, and I’m unsure as to his holdings other than a flopped flush or possibly a set – both fairly unlikely, River 3h – again I check, he makes it $19.50 – it’s to be a hard call, but I just can’t think why he’d bet so much. If he flopped the flush, he’s played it like it’s very dangerous, If he flopped a set, why the big river bet, If he got lucky and turned the Q – well betting $20 is only gonna get a call from a better hand, finally, my likely holding – a AdXx – Why try to get such a big bet out of me? – I call, he shows 5s 5c. – ended the session $80 down…
Only bit of luck on Thursday was when I played Party Poker for the first time in ages. I picked up AK in MP and raised to $2 – SB then pushed for $20 – I decide I’m way ahead of his range, and at worst 50/50 – I call – hit nothing and expect to lose – but nope – he has KQ… I then got very lucky in a $130 pot, I flopped middle set against top set – all-in on the flop, turn and river make 4 diamonds on the board and my 6d is good enough to scoop the pot… guess I can’t moan about bad beats…
I decided on Saturday to stay in and play because I was on $0 for the week. Saturday action was irritating to say the least; I took down a few pots early on and made about $30 quickly. Then it all went a bit wrong. 1) $65 pot - I raise with T8o on the button and get called by the BB who has AA - flop ATT and he insta-bets pot - I slowly call, I put him on a good ace or a bad T - he bets the turn so I push - he almost times out before making the call with 2nd nuts - lmao. After that there’s about two hours of not hitting anything and repeatedly getting raised of what I thought were fairly safe C-bets, this was punctuated with picking up big PPs, raising it up – flopping the nuts set and then getting no action. I made a couple of stupid plays, calling a guy out of pos with an up-down draw and a pp on a flushing board – then betting ¾ pot when the turn brought the flush card – he called me down with 88. The a bit of weekend fish frying: I made $50 playing AJ in a $40 pot against q2 - he was all-in with no pair and no draw, hmmm. I also played KK aganst some guy - we got it all-in on a j-high board and he had ace-high no draw- and thank-god didn't hit.
Only one hand was a bit of a mystery, $20 pot, SB raises I call in the BB with QKo, flop T,Q,Xx - he bets pot - I raise to $10 he calls, turn 5c (a second c) he bet's $15 - he either had AK, he may have had a set, but why not re-raise on the flop) he may have had KJ (possibly KcJc) and decided to bet his draw. Perhaps a good call here - however I would be playing for my stack… any comments?
Sunday – I only managed to play a bit of poker. I got no real hands but I managed to make about $25 – almost making it the most profitable day of the week. Anyways, feel free to comment on any of the hands.
I ended the week down $38 – not terrible, but could and should have been better – I have to stop playing hours of loosing poker when I’ll only play 1-2 hours when I’m winning. Anyways, still loads of work to do to get my roll ready for the summer.
Monday and Tuesday I scarcely racked up 1 and a half buy-ins. I got sucked out a couple of times when I got some short stack all-in with middle-pair no kicker etc – but nothing to rant about. Then Wednesday saw a 2 buy-in swing. I dropped a buy-in and a half before I settled into my game, the tables kept breaking up and it was really pissing me off, kept getting my C-bets check-min-raised etc which put me in a bad frame of mind. Really, I only have myself to blame for this loss. However, I was coming back well and narrowed the margin to 1 buy-in by relying on my stats and making some tough calls against some rather agro players. Then my chance to break-even for the night: this guy has raised every hand, is massively aggressive etc, he raises from the SB and I call with 78, flop is 4,7,8 two hearts, he raises, I re-raise and he raises back - I think there's a chance he got lucky and flopped a set - but I don't think he's good enough to bet out with it, I know he could be doing this with an OP or even a flush draw - so I push and he insta-calls with AA - turn and river are 2, 2 – great….
So I decided to rectify the Wednesday session and Thursday was…well probably some of the worst poker I have ever played, mixed with some nasty luck. 1) $50 pot - I have JJ on the button, MP with half a buy-in opens by min-raising, and gets two callers – I pop it up to $5 and MP calls me. Flop is 2,5,6 – he checks it to me and I bet ¾ pot – he pushes – I call, he shows 5s6s…. need I say more - . 2) $40 pot. I have 76o and raise from the button, two callers - flop Js, 5c,3c - I bet 3/4 pot and get one caller, turn is another J - it's checked to me so I decide that the opp has a flush or str8 draw so I bet 3/4 pot again - he min raises - I fold. Not sure what he had here - maybe AJ, maybe a set - Think I was correct to take a stab at it - and I just got unlucky. 3) $80 pot - I had JJ in the SB – button raises to me, and I (for some stupid reason) decide to just flat call. The flop is 3s 5s 2s and I check to, he mashes the pot button which makes me think – more than anything he wants the pot right now, so I call. Turn 6c, again I check and again he bets out – now it doesn’t make much sense, if he had flopped a big flush – why bet so strong, the turn brings the str8 into play – and again he plays strong, the river is 5d and he bets $24 into $30 – at the time I just thought, nothing he has done makes any sense – I’ve been calling (most likely drawing) and his strong hand, which he apparently made on the flop, is “clearly” better than mine so why bet so much – in the end I call, he has 5,5, for quads. Overall, I think I played this hand like a moron – should have raised pre, check-raised the flop and then folded to his action. Finally 4) $40 loss, I have AA on the button and raise it to $2, 1 caller - flop - Q,x,x, - he bets pot - I raise pot, he calls, and pushes the turn - X- I call river Q - he wins with KQ - nice little suck out. 5) $65 pot – my only decent winning pot of the night: I have JJ in MP and make it $1.75, button calls, flop is 4d 8d 7d, I check, he bets $3.50, I decide that there’s a good chance he has nothing, I have the diamond draw and an over pair, I decided to assess the turn, Qs, not likely to help either of us – I check and he makes it $7.50 – I still have a draw, and I’m unsure as to his holdings other than a flopped flush or possibly a set – both fairly unlikely, River 3h – again I check, he makes it $19.50 – it’s to be a hard call, but I just can’t think why he’d bet so much. If he flopped the flush, he’s played it like it’s very dangerous, If he flopped a set, why the big river bet, If he got lucky and turned the Q – well betting $20 is only gonna get a call from a better hand, finally, my likely holding – a AdXx – Why try to get such a big bet out of me? – I call, he shows 5s 5c. – ended the session $80 down…
Only bit of luck on Thursday was when I played Party Poker for the first time in ages. I picked up AK in MP and raised to $2 – SB then pushed for $20 – I decide I’m way ahead of his range, and at worst 50/50 – I call – hit nothing and expect to lose – but nope – he has KQ… I then got very lucky in a $130 pot, I flopped middle set against top set – all-in on the flop, turn and river make 4 diamonds on the board and my 6d is good enough to scoop the pot… guess I can’t moan about bad beats…
I decided on Saturday to stay in and play because I was on $0 for the week. Saturday action was irritating to say the least; I took down a few pots early on and made about $30 quickly. Then it all went a bit wrong. 1) $65 pot - I raise with T8o on the button and get called by the BB who has AA - flop ATT and he insta-bets pot - I slowly call, I put him on a good ace or a bad T - he bets the turn so I push - he almost times out before making the call with 2nd nuts - lmao. After that there’s about two hours of not hitting anything and repeatedly getting raised of what I thought were fairly safe C-bets, this was punctuated with picking up big PPs, raising it up – flopping the nuts set and then getting no action. I made a couple of stupid plays, calling a guy out of pos with an up-down draw and a pp on a flushing board – then betting ¾ pot when the turn brought the flush card – he called me down with 88. The a bit of weekend fish frying: I made $50 playing AJ in a $40 pot against q2 - he was all-in with no pair and no draw, hmmm. I also played KK aganst some guy - we got it all-in on a j-high board and he had ace-high no draw- and thank-god didn't hit.
Only one hand was a bit of a mystery, $20 pot, SB raises I call in the BB with QKo, flop T,Q,Xx - he bets pot - I raise to $10 he calls, turn 5c (a second c) he bet's $15 - he either had AK, he may have had a set, but why not re-raise on the flop) he may have had KJ (possibly KcJc) and decided to bet his draw. Perhaps a good call here - however I would be playing for my stack… any comments?
Sunday – I only managed to play a bit of poker. I got no real hands but I managed to make about $25 – almost making it the most profitable day of the week. Anyways, feel free to comment on any of the hands.
I ended the week down $38 – not terrible, but could and should have been better – I have to stop playing hours of loosing poker when I’ll only play 1-2 hours when I’m winning. Anyways, still loads of work to do to get my roll ready for the summer.
Sunday 3 June 2007
NL$50 - whose better value, the weekend maniacs or the midweek nits?
Okies – basically, the profits have been on their way south for two weeks now. I’m going to give a proper break-down of where money has been lost, as of 8pm Sunday 3rd I’m currently down $57 for this week and $16 for the previous – so no disaster – but not great considering the time and effort. Losses have been a mixed bag of a few outdraws and some very questionable play on my part – will go through the key hands tomorrow.
However, this was a theory I had and would like feedback on; although the action is much livelier on the weekends, when running fairly average in terms of hitting flops and picking up hands perhaps beating the weekday nits at ssnl is easier than the weekend maniacs. On Saturday night I hit some great hands – flopped some big sets mainly, however, they never caught when I caught so I ended up down (I only really made one bad call) – however, towards the end of the night I picked up two mediocre hands and stacked two donkeys to reduce the damage – and although these pots were easy money I found it very difficult to take down pots without the goods either pre-flop or even on the nicest textured boards – everyone was playing back at me.
Anyways – I’m basing my conclusions on three weeks of play on FT so feel free to criticise.
However, this was a theory I had and would like feedback on; although the action is much livelier on the weekends, when running fairly average in terms of hitting flops and picking up hands perhaps beating the weekday nits at ssnl is easier than the weekend maniacs. On Saturday night I hit some great hands – flopped some big sets mainly, however, they never caught when I caught so I ended up down (I only really made one bad call) – however, towards the end of the night I picked up two mediocre hands and stacked two donkeys to reduce the damage – and although these pots were easy money I found it very difficult to take down pots without the goods either pre-flop or even on the nicest textured boards – everyone was playing back at me.
Anyways – I’m basing my conclusions on three weeks of play on FT so feel free to criticise.
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